Frozen Fantasy: Bias is Real

Auston Matthews is an absolute stud. I'm a lifelong Leafs' fan. So, why am I having such a hard time warming up to him?

Sorry, @am34. It's not you. It's me.

Bias is real. It influences us every day. Implicit bias is the worst. What's that? Unconscious attribution of qualities (good and bad) from one group to another, or one person to another.

It's the kind of stuff you don't know until you know. It's destructive and ugly in real life – race, gender, and sexuality. But this is about fantasy hockey. So, what application does it have here?

Saturday night, I realized I carry bias from my childhood and it's clouding my judgment. @am34 is the target.

And it already negatively influenced me in a fantasy trade.

About six weeks ago, I refused a deal that would have seen me net Mathews in a keeper deal. I am playing for next season and the one after that. The other guy wanted Nathan MacKinnon, who was producing at a higher rate at the time.

The guy thought I was crazy to turn down the deal. After Saturday night, I think I might have been.

As a kid, I loved Wayne Gretzky and the Oilers. I hated the Islanders and Penguins. Why? An irrational hatred of Mike Bossy and Mario Lemieux. Great players, but they seriously rubbed me the wrong way.

Saturday night, it all finally clicked. Auston reminds me of Mario Lemieux, one of the top-five NHLers of all time. Great for the Leafs. But that has influenced my perceptions and decisions. And not in a good way.

What biases do you have? Mine have already gotten in the way. Have yours?

Now, let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Jack Campbell, G, Toronto (25 percent Yahoo! owned) – How many Leafs fans does it take to screw in a light bulb? None, they're too stressed by Frederik Andersen's injury to realize their team is in the dark. Campbell has become a darling in Toronto and the guy is clearly better than his stats. But it might be one of the worst landing spots for him unless he can work magic behind a team that fears playing a 200-foot game. Campbell played a strong game Saturday night – the loss wasn't on him. But it was an illustration of the blue-and-white issues. Both goals came on idiotic shots from Leaf defenders that rimmed the o-zone and pinned the team with odd-man rushes. Campbell could surprise and if so, the Leafs will use him frequently so Frederik Andersen isn't too tired come playoff time.

Jonathan Drouin, LW/C, Montreal (31 percent Yahoo! owned) – This is purely a grab and flip pick, especially with the trade deadline coming soon. Drouin has missed a ton of time to injury and I'm not convinced his wrist is fine. But his ownership will grow on name value alone – and his 15 points in 19 contests before he went down. Drouin's wrist was apparently pretty swollen as recently as last week, so it's hard to imagine his return will be easy. Like I said, grab him and then bundle him in trade before the other person realizes that wrist still puffs up after every game.

Kevin Fiala, LW/RW, Minnesota (11 percent Yahoo! owned) – I've been waiting on Fiala all season. The 23-year-old may finally be building on his 48-point sophomore season. Fiala is on a three-game, five-point streak heading into Sunday night. He has three goals in that span and two have come on the power play. And as the Twin Cities Pioneer Press described, Fiala's moves this last week looked like they came straight out of a video game. Yep, that slick. The winger just needs a little consistency and he could be a star. He's worth rostering for a late season run.

Pavel Francouz, G, Colorado (23 percent Yahoo! owned) – Need a quick goalie boost? The Avs play back-to-back this weekend and that means Francouz will likely toil Sunday against Minny. He has great numbers overall, although he's been a bit porous since Christmas. The Wild aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, so Sunday should be a good day for Francouz and the Avs. He might as well earn those points for you, especially if you're in a head-to-head format.

Valeri Nichushkin, LW/RW, Colorado (6 percent Yahoo! owned) – Seven years ago, Nichushkin was the darling of the NHL draft. Big, skilled and fast – a potential star winger. But it never happened. There was a major hip injury and two seasons back home in Russia. And last year was a complete wash for Nichushkin – he didn't notch a single goal for the Stars. But Colorado is a different story. He's on the second line and starting to look like that tantalizing draft pick from way back when. Nichushkin has a modest 22 points, but he had a three-game, five-point streak heading into Saturday. And that included a big three-point game against the Sabres. The streak was snapped, but the guy is confident. He's not as good as his draft hype, but warm is warm. And he seems to be a good fit alongside Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky.

Cal Petersen, G, Los Angeles (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – You are probably rolling your eyes and wondering WTF I'm thinking. Petersen has talent, even if he hasn't shown it this season, and he might just be the Kings' goalie of the future. But right now? That team is bad. Well, some formats make goalies – even backups on abysmal teams – worthy of ownership. I'm in one of those leagues. We only count wins and shutouts, and we're not penalized by goals allowed. Sometimes a single goalie win can mean the difference between winning and losing a match. Go looking if you're in a league like mine.

Justin Schultz, D, Pittsburgh (8 percent Yahoo! owned) – Injuries have derailed this guy ever since his amazing 51-point season in 2016-17. Mind you, those 51 points were more a function of his exceptional teammates than his own skill. Not to say Schultz is a bad player, but he's no star. Still, he's one of the best-available defenders off the wire right now, based on team alone. All he has to do is slide the puck toward Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin and he'll get secondary assists. Schultz is probably better than your last D.

Damon Severson, D, New Jersey (12 percent Yahoo! owned) – I know I've talked about him before, but Severson is worth mentioning again. He's riding a six – yes, SIX-game scoring streak. It might be the longest of his career. And four of those points have come on the power play. Get thee to the wire. Now.

Paul Stastny, C, Vegas (22 percent Yahoo! owned) – Stastny doesn't get the respect he deserves. He had three 70-plus point seasons in his first four in the league, but has dealt with injuries of one sort or another almost every season since. Remarkably, he delivers most of his points at even strength – seems odd for a first-line center. But I can live with that if Stastny delivers like he has of late. He has 10 points, including four goals, in eight games. He'll be owned in a lot more leagues soon enough if he keeps this up, especially if faceoff wins are important.

Back to bias.

In fantasy, we almost always have biases. Irrational passion for prospects, even those who haven't even skated in the NHL. Illogical disgust for players over 30. Sometimes 27.

They're probably all wrong.

I'm rethinking everything now. It's important to re-examine approaches and influences all the time. I thought I was already doing it. But I wasn't going deep enough.

I'm going now to watch old vids of The Magnificent One/Super Mario. I think I'll have a whole new appreciation.

But I draw the line at Mike Bossy. He still reminds of a schoolyard bully.

Until next week.