NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves and Trends for Wild Card Weekend

Written by

Updated on January 11, 2024 9:49AM EST

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Wild Card Weekend

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

Use the ESPN BET promo code ROTO, and it gives new users access to a generous bet anything to get $250 in bonus bets welcome offer, along with one of the best sports betting sites in the online sports betting world today.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds

Wild Card Weekend Schedule

Saturday, Jan. 13

Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Houston Texans O/U 44 - OPENED BROWNS -1.5, 43.5

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5, O/U 44.0 - OPENED CHIEFS -3.5, 45

1/11 - Chiefs went to -4.0 and now -4.5. I would not be surprised if this reached -6.5.

Sunday, Jan. 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills -10, O/U 35.5 - OPENED BILLS -10.5, 41.5

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys -7.5, O/U 50.5 - OPENED COWBOYS -7, 48

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions -3.0 O/U 51.5 - OPENED LIONS -3.5, 51.0

Monday, Jan. 15

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 44 - OPENED EAGLES -1.5, 44.5

Kick off the NFL season at Caesars Sportsbook using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your $250 in bonus bets. Be sure to check out the odds differences across the best sports betting sites, as well as the best sportsbook promos to get the most bang for your buck this season.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Line Movement: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

The Browns opened -1.5 road favorites and were immediately bet up to -2.5. The total opened up at 43.5 or 44.5 depending on the sportsbook (FanDuel vs. DraftKings). The Texans beat the Colts and watched the Jaguars lose to the Titans and won the AFC South division.

One of the best angles in this matchup is the huge difference in the Browns' home/road splits. They were 8-1 at home and only 3-5 on the road. They had -5.3 point differential while allowing 29.6 points per game versus just 13.9 points per game at home. The Browns are also dealing with some significant injuries which need clarity to see where the line moves.

I would not be surprised if this game reached Browns -3.0. I think the Texans are being overlooked in this spot as home dogs especially considering Stroud did not play in the 36-22 loss.

Previous Matchup - Browns 36-22, Dec. 24, 2023. C.J. Stroud did not play in this game. Browns were -3.0 road favorites and the O/U was 40.5.

Trends

The total has gone OVER in the last nine Browns' road games and they are 2-6-1 ATS.

The total has gone UNDER in four out of the last five Texans home games and seven out of the last 10

Key Injuries

Browns - DE Myles Garrett, WR Amari Cooper, K Dustin Hopkins, CB Greg Newsome, WR Marquise Goodwin, S Juan Thornhill, CB Mike Ford are all listed as QUESTIONABLE

Texans - DE Jonathan Greenard, WR Robert Woods, WR Noah Brown are listed as QUESTIONABLE

Weather - Indoors

New users can take advantage of the FanDuel promo code that opens up $200 in bonus bets.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Line Movement: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs opened as -3.5 home favorites with a total of 45.0. The total took a huge drop once word got out about the weather and is now at 43.0, but had gotten to 42.5. I can see the total continuing to fall and the Chiefs getting bumped up past the -3.5 current number.

For as poorly as the Chiefs have looked on offense, they catch a huge break getting the Dolphins at home Saturday night in frigid-cold temperatures. They also get the Dolphins when they have a ton of injuries to deal with off a tough Sunday night game against the Bills. The Dolphins' struggles against winning teams is well documented and the Chiefs are just about unbeatable at home.

This could be the blowout of the Wild Card Weekend.

Previous Matchup - Chiefs 21-14, (Neutral field) Nov. 4, 2023; Chiefs -1.0, O/U 51.5

Trends

The total has gone UNDER in the last five Chiefs home games and in 11 out of their last 13
The Chiefs are 6-4 in the last 10 home games

The Dolphins are 1-5 SU against teams with a winning record

Key Injuries

Dolphins - WR Jaylen Waddle, CB Xavien Howard, RB Raheem Mostert, LB Andrew Van Ginkel are all listed as QUESTIONABLE

Chiefs - CB L'Jarius Sneed, TE Travis Kelce, WR Rashee Rice, WR Kadarius Toney are all listed as QUESTIONABLE

Weather - Game time temperatures are expected to be 7 degrees with a 24 percent chance of precipitation.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Line Movement: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

The biggest point spread of the weekend with the Bills opening at -9.5 and moving to -10. The total has plummeted from an opener of 41.5 and is down a full 6 points to 35.5 (low is 35.0). The injury to T.J. Watt combined with the weather has put the Steelers in a very difficult position.

Mike Tomlin's incredible record as an underdog against the terrible record without T.J. Watt is the question and I would lean on the Watt data being the most important. This game has all the looks of going under and could play out similar to the Dolphins/Chiefs.

Trends

The Steelers are just 1-10 without T.J. Watt

Mike Tomlin has a 60 percent winning percentage as an underdog

The UNDER has hit in 7 out of last 8 games in the series

The Bills have gone UNDER in 6 out of their last 7 home games

Key Injuries

Steelers - LB T.J. Watt is most likely OUT. DB Trenton Thompson Questionable, S Minkah Fitzpatrick Questionable, S Damontae Kazee OUT

Bills - RB Ty Johnson, WR Gabe Davis, S Damar Hamlin, S Kaiir Elam are all questionable

Weather - 24 degrees with 65 percent chance of snow.

The BetMGM bonus code gets new customers access to a first-bet offer worth up to $1,500.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Line Movement: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

The side opened with the Cowboys as -7 point home favorites and it has moved to -7.5. The total has moved up from 49 to 51 with a lot of money coming in on the Cowboys team total going OVER. The Cowboys' home record has been dominate, but their postseason record has not been.

Dallas is under a lot of pressure and there are already rumblings that Mike McCarthy's job is on the line if they do not win this game.

The Packers' offense struggled in the first half of the season due to multiple injuries, but since getting healthy they are clicking and should be able to keep up with the Cowboys on the scoreboard. The OVER looks like the best bet on the whole weekend, but I can see the Packers hanging around especially now that they are +7.5.

Trends

Dallas is 16-0 in their last 16 home games

The OVER has hit in 10 out of 13 Cowboys home games

The total has gone OVER in the last five Packers road games

Jordan Love has 18 touchdowns to just one interception in his last eight games

Key Injuries

Packers - WR Romeo Doubs, LB Isaiah McDuffie, RB AJ Dillon, T Caleb Jones are listed as QUESTIONABLE

Cowboys - OL Tyler Smith is Questionable

Weather - Indoors

NFL Wild Card Weekend Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

The Lions opened -3.5 home favorites and went to -3.0 in some spots, but looks to be back at -3.5 in the majority of places. The total has bounced around from 51 to 52 points.

The Rams are the trendy pick based on their run when their key offensive players are healthy (Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua).

The Lions have been strong at home especially on offense, but their defense is suspect and head coach Dan Campbell is outmatched by Sean McVay. The injury to TE Sam LaPorta is a huge blow to the Lions offense.

This should be a very close, high-scoring game, but I can also see the Rams winning by at least 10.

Trends

The Rams have won seven out of their last eight games

The OVER has hit in six out of the last seven Rams games

The Lions are 6-1 in their last seven home games

The total has gone OVER in five out of the last six Lions home games

Key Injuries

Rams - OL Joe Noteboom and TE Tyler Higbee are listed as questionable

Lions - TE Sam LaPorta is listed as DOUBTFUL

Weather - Indoors

NFL Wild Card Weekend Line Movement: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles opened -1.5 road favorites and immediately moved to -2.5. The total opened at 44.5 and is currently at 43.5. The total could continue to drop with news about the Eagles injuries.

The Eagles come into this game just 1-5 in their last six games and their defense has been one of the worst in football as they have allowed 27, 35 and 25 to the Giants (twice) and Cardinals.

The Bucs are hot and very live home dogs, but Baker Mayfield is not 100 percent even though not listed on the injury report.

Previous Matchup

Eagles 25-11 Week 3

Trends

The total has gone UNDER in seven out of the last eight Eagles road games

The total has gone UNDER in six of the the last seven Bucs home games

Tampa Bay is 5-1 in its last six games

Key Injuries

Eagles - QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, RB D'Andre Swift, WR Devonta Smith are all listed as QUESTIONABLE

Bucs - LB K.J. Britt and WR Rakim Jarrett are listed as QUESTIONABLE

Weather - 67 degrees with 32 percent chance of precipitation

If you're betting on the NFL this season, RotoWire has a full suite of betting pages and tools with everything you need from the latest NFL odds to weekly NFL picks along with a wide variety of NFL futures and NFL player futures.