Coming off what was by far my worst week of the season (9-5 straight up, but an almost miraculously bad 3-10-1 ATS) I thought it might be a good time to look at a couple of the Game Capsules where I went off the rails to see if there's any lessons to be learned from the crash.
Jacksonville +3 at Tampa Bay (Game Cap: JAX 24-13; Reality: TB 38-31)
Overview: Wow, there's no sugar-coating this one, is there? I was expecting a low-scoring game fought on the ground, with Doug Martin struggling and the Jaguars coming out on top fairly handily. Instead, Martin went on a rampage and Blake Bortles was forced to air it out playing from behind. Even now though, I'm not sure how that could have been predictable. Here's what Jacksonville's defense had done against running backs coming into the game:
Week 1 vs CAR - Jonathan Stewart, 18 for 56 (3.1 YPC), 0 TDs
Week 2 vs MIA - Lamar Miller, 10 for 14 (1.4 YPC), 0 TDs
Week 3 at NE - LeGarrette Blount, 18 for 78 (4.3 YPC), 3 TDs / Dion Lewis, 8 for 37 (4.6 YPC), 1 TD
Week 4 at IND - Frank Gore, 17 for 53 (3.1 YPC), 0 TDs
Sure, they got torched by the Patriots on the ground from a fantasy perspective, but they still weren't giving up giant chunks of real estate. 26 carries for 115 yards and four TDs is a volume performance, but it's comparable to Martin's 24 for 125 and two TDs in Week 5. I guess the trick going forward will be figuring out what the Pats and Bucs blocking schemes have in common that the Panthers, Dolphins and Colts don't, or simply downgrading the Jags run defense on the road.
Jags: I ended up being just a touchdown off on the Jaguars final total, but had Yeldon running for 80 yards and a score. Instead he went 11-32-0 on the ground but 5-31-1 as a receiver before leaving the game with a groin strain, so I wasn't too far off. I had Bortles throwing for 280 and two scores. I was close on the yardage (he tossed 303) but he also threw four TDs, including the one to Yeldon. I had Allen Robinson with 120 yards and two TDs. I had the scores right, but it was Allen Hurns who had the big yardage day with 116.
I also dismissed Julian Thomas' chances of making a big splash in his first game with Jacksonville. That proves to be correct, as he had just two catches on three targets for 20 yards.
All in all, not bad.
Bucs: It's amazing what one massive miss can do to a prediction. I had Martin and Charles Sims combining for 90 total yards. I think Martin had that by himself at the half, and the duo ended up with 294 combined yards between them. I also had Jameis Winston with a bad game (230 yards, 1 TD to Mike Evans, two INTs) when instead he merely had a quiet one (209 yards, 1 TD to Martin, a 2-pt conversion to Vincent Jackson, and zero INTs).
Yikes.
Final grade: C-, and only because I did well enough with Jacksonville. In terms of final score, game flow, and the performance of individual Tampa players, I was way off.
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Pittsburgh +3 at San Diego (Game Cap: SD 31-24; Reality: PIT 24-20)
Well, I got the Steelers total correct... what I was expecting in this one was a great game from Le'Veon Bell, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, and a poor one from Michael Vick. Check. check, check, and semi-check. I also made a point of castigating Mike Tomlin's end-game decisions in the loss to the Ravens, and I guess he listened because he didn't play around this time.
So in getting all that right, how did I end up so wrong? Honestly, I'm not sure. After I sent in the full caps, I read over this capsule again and it certainly seemed to be pointing towards a Steelers win given what I was stressing (Bell being unstoppable, Gordon being a potential bust), and yet in the Predictions section I somehow wound up with the Chargers winning. Let's chalk this one up to a brain cramp.
Steelers: I had Bell with 130 combined yards and two TDs. He ended up with 127 combined yards and one massively important TD. Solid. I had Vick throwing for 160 yards with a touchdown to Antonio Brown but two INTs, and for most of the game it looked like I may have overestimated what he would do. One late bomb to Markus Wheaton later, and Vick wound up with a 203-1-1 line. Close, but not close enough. I also missed a defensive TD, but that's gonna happen.
Bolts: I said Gordon would be vaguely "ineffective", and while 15 carries for 42 yards would qualify, 94 combined yards doesn't. He also wasn't outgained by Danny Woodhead, who I said would have 80 combined yards and a TD. I got the yardage right (he had 76) but not the score. I gave Rivers another 300-yard game with three touchdowns, two to Gates and one to Keenan Allen. He actually threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns, and I had the 'two to Gates' part down cold. His third TD was actually that pick-six though, so whoops.
Final Grade: On the one hand, I can't be too hard on myself for this. The swing between what happened on the field and what I predicted is really in that interception return by Antwon Blake. If Malcom Floyd runs a shallower route on the play and makes the catch, Rivers might well have finished the drive with a score, and suddenly my prediction looks damn good. On the other hand, I wrote comments pointing to a Pittsburgh victory and then ignored them, so I really have no excuse for finding a way to a Steelers win in the Predictions. These are exactly the kind of games where I try to throw in a TD from the defense or special teams to account for that win. I'll give myself a charitable C+.
On, and the final kick in the teeth on this one? In the Rotowire Steak League, my team was crippled right out of the gate by losing its two most expensive players (Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson), but I'd still somehow managed to piece together a 2-2 record. Heading into Monday night I was down about 21 points but had Philip Rivers and two Steelers defenders going, while my opponent had Mante Te'o at linebacker. Will Allen was my safety, and he hurt his ankle early after recording just two tackles. Even so, had Tomlin coached scared again and kicked a field goal to send the game to OT instead of giving the ball to Bell at the end of regulation, Rivers almost certainly would have gotten the extra passing yards in the extra frame I needed to put me over the top.
Instead, I lost by 0.36 points. Sad trombone.