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Auction League Strategy: Gurley Men

Last night Rotowire held its Steak League auction, which is also the first big auction or draft for me this season. This is a fairly deep league: 16-team IDP with standard scoring, $200 budget, 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR starting spots (no flex) with six reserves, and it tends to be very competitive not only because of that whole bragging rights thing but because of the side bet that gives the league its name. We're split into two divisions of eight, and after each season the divisions meet for dinner, with the losers buying steak for the winners.

Two years ago I hoisted the trophy, but in 2014 my team just failed to gel and I missed the playoffs, something I was determined not to let happen again. Rather than targeting specific players, I came into the auction with three main strategic goals:

1) Get two of the top eight WRs: In draft leagues I'm a big proponent of starting WR-WR with my first two picks, and I carry that over into auctions as well. This season I consider the top tier (well, top two tiers, really) to be made up of eight guys: Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. as the elitest of the elite, and Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green as the merely phenomenal WRs. (There's also a tier of four just below this with T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery and Randall Cobb, but the dropoff between tiers two and three is a little steeper). If I can nab two of those eight, that gives me an excellent foundation for week-to-week success

2) Stick to my budget: Last year I got lost in the weeds a bit. I missed out on a second elite WR, passed on some decent buys in the middle of the auction while waiting for bargains that never materialized and wound up with too much money in the endgame, forcing me into a silly bidding war for Zach Ertz. I was determined not to let that happen again. My rough budget was $90 for my top two WRs, although I was willing to push that to $100 if necessary, $50 for two solid but non-elite RBs, and $20 for two decent QBs (one a solid veteran and one with some upside, if possible). That would leave me with about $30-$40 for my WR3, TE, IDPs, K and bench.

3) Buy my core early: If there's a big lesson I've learned over the years in this league, it's that true bargains are rare and flukey. My 2013 title, for instance, was partially built on the fact that we held the auction right after Le'Veon Bell hurt his knee in the preseason and no one was sure how long he might be out. That uncertainty created an opportunity for me to get him for a measly $6, since I was going cheap at RB anyway, and when the knee injury proves to be minor and he produced 1250 combined yards in 13 games, I was well on my way to glory. With that in mind, I wanted to be the one setting the market if I could, grabbing core guys early and hopefully a few bucks cheaper than I might have gotten them had I bought them later in the auction, when everyone is staring at their still-respectable bankroll and a dwindling talent pool and starts to panic.

So how'd I make out?

QBs: Philip Rivers $12 (comparable buys Tom Brady $14, Sam Bradford $13, Ryan Tannehill $9); Teddy Bridgewater $5 (comparable buys Carson Palmer $6, Jay Cutler $3, Jameis Winston $3)

In retrospect, would I rather have had Brady for a couple of bucks more than Rivers? Absolutely. Everybody comes out of an auction with a couple of those. But I got the upside QB play I wanted in Bridgewater at a good price, and Rivers has a solid floor in case Teddy doesn't break out.

RBs: Lamar Miller $32 (comparable buys Latavius Murray $36, Matt Forte $34, Andre Ellington $34, Alfred Morris $28); Todd Gurley $22 (comparable buys Mark Ingram $27, T.J. Yeldon $21, Jonathan Stewart $20); Chris Ivory $10; Duke Johnson $6; Jeremy Langford $4; Roy Helu $3

Gurley's probably the player that will make or break my season. Reports out of camp yesterday were extremely positive, even though he's being held back from full participation, and the Rams are saying that he's further ahead in his recovery from a torn ACL than Adrian Peterson was at this point in 2012. That was good enough for me. Elite backs tend to top $50 in this league (the highest salary this season was Le'veon at $55, with AP right behind at $54) and if there's a reasonable chance I can get elite production for less than half that price, I'll take it. Heck, even Melvin Gordon went for $41.

You'll also note that I didn't handcuff him with Tre Mason, who went for the same price as Ivory ($10). Partially this is due to the fact that in leagues with smaller benches I'd rather take a chance on acquiring two starters with two roster spots than limit myself to just one, but also simply due to the fact that if Gurley is doing this well already, Mason might never be a starter at all. If they split carries for the first couple of weeks before Gurley seizes the job for good, that's essentially $10 down the drain.

My backups are basically Ivory as low-ceiling, high-floor Gurley insurance (even without Rex Ryan in charge, the Jets are still a ground and pound team until they find a real QB) and three upside lottery tickets. As I said Sunday I expect Duke Johnson to take the top job in Cleveland by midseason, Helu has only the unproven Murray and proven bust Trent Richardson ahead of him on Oakland's depth chart, and Langford is in a nice spot behind Forte, who carries two big red flags in his age (29, the danger zone for RBs) and workload (731 touches over the last two seasons). Ka'Deem Carey is nursing a shoulder injury and doesn't have Langford's talent anyway, so I don't consider him much of a threat should Forte break down.

WRs: Dez Bryant $49 (comparable buys Antonio Brown $46, Odell Beckham Jr. $45); Jordy Nelson $40 (comparable buys A.J. Green $45, Calvin Johnson $43, Jordan Matthews $41, Mike Evans $37); Kendall Wright $6 (comparable buys Breshad Perriman $10, DeVante Parker $7, Percy Harvin $6, Terrance Williams $5); Doug Baldwin $4

Buying my two WRs early had both an upside and a downside. I grabbed Nelson first, who proved to be a nice relative bargain, but then got into a bidding war for Dez right afterwards that gave back any money I might have saved on Jordy. However I got there though, I came away with two guys I liked and right on budget, so I can't complain.

I did leave myself thin afterwards though. WR prices were blowing up in the endgame (Martavis Bryant went for $30!) and while I'd grabbed Wright intending him to be my WR4, when it was all said and done he was a mediocre WR3 instead. Baldwin is, well, Doug Baldwin. I could have thrown some of that RB lottery ticket money at a $4 Markus Wheaton or something, but felt the backs were the better buy. Hopefully Marcus Mariota is the real deal, but whether he is or he isn't I'll probably have to be aggressive in FAAB when it comes to landing potential breakout receivers.

The rest: TE Delanie Walker $1; K Dan Bailey $2; DE Cameron Wake $1; LB C.J. Mosley $2; DB Landon Collins $1

Walker is a nice bargain buy at $1, given that Mariota might be leaning on him heavily. I wanted Bailey because I think he'll be one of the kickers least affected by the new PAT rules - he's all but automatic from 33 yards out, and Jason Garrett is a conservative coach who shies away from two-pointers. Wake is the IDP equivalent of the idea that the Dolphins DEF is a good buy because they face a lot of crappy QBs early in the season. Mosley is a solid upper-tier LB play who I got a buck cheaper than DeAndre Levy or Paul Posluszny. Collins is a wild card, but the Giants are in a pass-happy division and he fit my bye-week puzzle. If I can, I try to stagger the byes of my non-skill players so that if necessary, I can rotate them through a single bench spot while picking up their bye-week replacements.

Overall, I think I came out of this in good shape. I executed my plan, and there's really not much more you can expect to achieve in a competitive, 16-team auction. The full roster for the Citadel Imperators (yes, I'm movie geek enough to pick a different reference every year for my fantasy team names) is below, with the projected Week 1 starters in bold and stripped of salaries, comps and commentary. Hit me up on twitter (@AntonSirius) to let me know how you think I did.

  • QB: Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater
  • RB: Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Chris Ivory, Duke Johnson, Roy Helu, Jeremy Langford
  • WR: Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Kendall Wright, Doug Baldwin
  • TE: Delanie Walker
  • K: Dan Bailey
  • DE: Cameron Wake
  • LB: C.J. Mosley
  • DB: Landon Collins