Friday we examined pre-camp bargains in ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Today, it's time to identify some players who will have a difficult time providing value at their current draft position.
Martavis Bryant
ESPN ADP: 90.5 | WR Rank: 32
Yahoo ADP: 47.1 | WR Rank: 19
The ESPN ranking isn't all that out of whack for an upside pass-catcher like Bryant. I have no problem with a seventh round ADP (in 12-team leagues) for a second-year player who has red zone value and collects massive yardage per catch dating back to his days as the No. 2 behind Sammy Watkins at Clemson. Yahoo owners, on the other hand, are selecting Bryant ahead of players who will be their respective team's No. 1, like Jordan Matthews (WR20), Keenan Allen (WR24), Jeremy Maclin (WR28) and even Watkins himself (WR23) -- all are projected by the Rotowire system to out-perform Bryant. Ben Roethlisberger says Markus Wheaton, not Bryant, will be on the field for Pittsburgh in two-wide sets, further dashing the hopes of owners expecting a sharp increase in targets this season. If you're looking for a receiver with less risk, similar big-play ability and almost identical projected value in re-draft leagues, try Torrey Smith (103.7, WR37).
Todd Gurley
ESPN: 50.9 | RB20
Yahoo: 41.7 | RB18
Reports are rosy out of Rams camp about Gurley's surgically repaired knee, but the No. 10 overall pick has not been cleared for contact work and there is no timetable for that to happen. Reports out of training camp are that Tre Mason will "get the lion's share" of early-season touches, so you not only need to spend a top-50 pick to get Gurley, you have to spend another selection on Mason as insurance. Keeper-leaguers have a legitimate building block in the former Georgia Bulldog, but re-drafters should temper expectations in 2015.
Joique Bell
ESPN: 58.9 | RB23
Yahoo: 93.4 | RB29
Bell is being drafted too high for the same reasons rookie running back Ameer Abdullah, who continues to get rave reviews at camp, is being undervalued. Most fantasy owners view Abdullah as Bell's handcuff with some PPR upside. For me, it's kind of opposite. The rookie's talent and draft status alone are enough to displace the veteran in Detroit's backfield, and that's before factoring in Bell's injuries and general mediocrity. I'll believe Bell is the starter when he's actually on the field earning meaningful touches.
Travis Kelce
ESPN: 62.8 | TE4
Yahoo: 50.8 | TE3
Most of Kelce's value comes from his Gronk-like attributes, and I agree that is tantalizing, but there is still so much projection involved with his top-50 Yahoo ADP. Noodle-armed, or excuse me, "game manager" Alex Smith is still at the helm of a Kansas City offense that ran the fifth fewest plays in 2014 and Jeremy Maclin was brought in to help bolster a receiving corps that didn't find the end zone last season. So, even with Anthony Fasano gone, it's hard to say with confidence that Kelce will see a substantial gain from his 87 targets a year ago that helped him to a 67/862/5 line. That type of efficiency on his opportunities is also due to regress.