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Gallardo's Gone Gallant

With a quickly eroding strikeout rate that propped up his value in the first place, Yovani Gallardo had made a quick descent down the fantasy rankings heading into 2015. A torn meniscus in 2008 limited him to just 24 IP, but he returned with a breakout effort in 2009 which included a 26% strikeout rate in 185.7 IP. It might feel weird now, but his 3.73 ERA that year was solid better than average (110 ERA+). The strikeouts peaked that year, but lived in the 24-25% range for the next three seasons while his ERA generally stayed in the mid-to-upper 3.00s.

He'd become a workhorse. That's generally the shorthand for a pitcher who logs plenty of innings and usually offers one standout fantasy category while also never really doing enough to be a superstar. From 2009-2012, Gallardo had a 3.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 25% K rate, and about 196 IP per year. From 2013 through last year, he was just a workhorse without the standout category. Innings were his only net value. He logged 373 innings of a 3.84 ERA in those two seasons.

He had a 3.84 ERA in 2010 and it was an above average mark for the league. His 3.84 ERA over the last two years was barely average. The groundball rate has been on the rise for five years now, but it didn't hit the 50% mark until last year and that's when it really starts to matter. Unfortunately, he was allowing more hits and striking few batters so it was hard to see a change coming. As he began pushing his groundball rate upward, he slowly morphed into a sinker-slider pitcher.

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In his velocity prime, he could sit 93-94 MPH while bumping up against 96-97 when he needed a little more. These days he can still reach back for 95, but he sits 91-92 with both the four-seamer and sinker and the movement fills in for the missing MPH. He's at a 33% and 22% in usage with the four-seamer and sinker, respectively, the highest we've seen on the sinker side yet. Meanwhile, his slider is at a career-high 28% usage rate.

With the strikeouts of yesteryear gone, Gallardo can now just focus on getting batters out. I'm sure he focused on that before, too, but I wonder if the stark drop off in strikeout rate left him grasping to get it back at times in these last two years. It seems he may have been trying to get too cute to log strikeouts and instead found himself behind hitters and scrambling to stay alive in the at-bat all of a sudden.

A standout difference in his profile from recent history is his first-pitch strike rate. His current 62% rate isn't a career-high, but it is a four-year high. He reached 62% in 2010 and upped to 63% in 2011. He did so with 63% fastballs to lefties and 59% to righties. In 2012, he really changed, especially against lefties. He threw just 51% first pitch fastballs to lefties that year and 32% curveballs. He still had a 24% K rate against them so I'm sure it was deemed a winning strategy.

But it really stopped working in '13. He continued the trend for both 2013 and 2014, resulting in a 50% first-pitch fastball rate to lefties and 36% for curves. The 133 strikeouts he logged against lefties in those two seasons were 31 short of what he did in 2012 alone. The strikeout rate versus lefties plummeted to 19%, passable for some, but well below Gallardo's expectations.

This year Gallardo is working fastballs in at a 57% rate on first pitches to lefties and curves just 17% of the time. It hasn't brought about a return of the strikeout rate, but the .278 OBP for lefties against Gallardo is a career-low thanks in large part to a 7% walk rate (also a career-low). Righties are seeing a first-pitch fastball 62% of the time.

Gallardo is currently pitching. He's made his evolution from thrower-to-pitcher and the results are impressive so far. It sounds weird to say this, but the trade helped him a good bit in terms of home park. Miller Park gets talked about as a hitter's park, but I'm not sure the extent to which it is gets noticed much.

It has a home run park factor of 133 for both righties and lefties (remember, 100 is average). Runs overall are pumped to 111 for lefties, 108 for righties. His new home is largely regarded as a hitter's haven, but its effect is mostly overrated these days as it has been tamped down considerably, especially in the home run department. Globe Life Park in Arlington is about average for lefty homers (99) and actually suppresses righties at 88. Runs are at 110/102, respectively.

The switch to a more favorable park cancels out the league switch where he gains a DH for the pitcher. But don't tell him it's harder. He just finished up a June where he allowed two earned runs all month, good for a 0.54 ERA in 33.3 IP. This included trips to Rogers Centre and US Cellular (although the Sox aren't exactly ripping it up). He also stymied the Dodgers at home (seven shutout innings). As for that extra hitter he says DH, schmee-H… (wow, that failed hard).

Gallardo's .634 OPS against DHs isn't eye-popping, but it's 21st among 64 starters with at least 25 PA against DHs. Gallardo also has 23% strikeout rate against DHs in 44 PA. The league average is .779 OPS and 19% K rate. So the big question whenever someone is performing well above expectations is, can it maintain?

With Gallardo it seems like an easy "yes". Now that doesn't mean his 2.72 ERA maintains. His base skills are worthy of a mid-3.00s ERA, a level better than the upper-3.00s area where he used to live. Of course the mid-3.00s suggests some firm regression. However, there is nothing so outlandish within his profile that is must regress back to his career level or league average and take his ERA/WHIP with it. Thus, there is actually a chance that this current level of Gallardo could hold on and result in a more stable version of 2014 Edinson Volquez (3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 192.7 IP).

He needs to continue getting ahead of hitters with a first-pitch strike rate of 60% or better with at least a 50% groundball rate. Those two components are driving his performance. His defense needs to support him as well, something we can feel pretty good about with Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre manning the left side of the infield.

A couple weeks back, I checked in on Gallardo at another outlet and his roster rates were at 39% for ESPN, 44% for Yahoo!, and 77% for CBS. Nearly two weeks later he is at 56% for ESPN, 62% for Yahoo!, and 85% at CBS. If you want him in a CBS league, you're going to have to trade for him and I'm not necessarily rushing out to get him. In ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, he may still be freely available and I'd definitely look to scoop him up, especially if your strikeouts are already well-handled by your other arms.