You didn't think I would blow through my entire bankroll in $2 and $5 increments without winning at least once, did you? Be honest, though, you were kind of rooting for that. I know I would be if it were someone else's blog. Imagine the desperation as the bankroll got below $500 without a single win!
Let's keep it in perspective, though. I won $20 on my two $2 entries, netting me a profit of $16. That puts my bankroll at $969.
As for my experiment in picking a contest that wasn't close to full 40 minutes before game time, it failed, with all 5,746 seats filling up before the games started. At $2 per, that comes out to $11,492 taken in for the $10K in prizes paid out, or a $14.92 percent rake. That's a lot to overcome, and it's making me re-think my strategy. RotoWire's Kevin Payne suggested targeting late-game contests where people tend to set lineups early and take zeroes when players are scratched. That might be a decent angle, but it also limits my choices and not ideal for blogging on the topic. I'll keep experimenting, looking to find the situations where there are more empty seats. To that end, I'm keeping track of the various rakes I've incurred as well as a few other stats on the contests in which I've participated:
| Date | Entry Fee | Prize Pool | Rake | No. of Entries | No. of Games | Top Score | Cost | Winnings | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-Apr | $10 | $3,000 | 12.33 | 337 | 13 | 51.58 | $10 | 0 | |
| 8-Apr | $10 | $900 | 11.11 | 100 | 13 | 53.5 | $10 | 0 | |
| 10-Apr | $5 | $2,000 | -10.75 | 357 | 10 | 67.5 | $5 | 0 | |
| 10-Apr | $5 | $2,000 | 13.5 | 454 | 10 | 63.58 | $5 | 0 | |
| 10-Apr | $2 | $10,000 | 14.92 | 5746 | 5 | 70.66 | $2 | 0 | |
| 10-Apr | $5 | $4,000 | 2.88 | 823 | 10 | 74.75 | $5 | 0 | |
| 13-Apr | $5 | $4,000 | 11.38 | 891 | 8 | 69.58 | $5 | 0 | |
| 13-Apr | $5 | $20,000 | 2.15 | 4086 | 8 | 71 | $5 | 0 | |
| 14-Apr | $2 | $10,000 | 14.92 | 5746 | 12 | 70.75 | $4* | $20 | |
| Average | 8.05 | 65.88 | |||||||
| Total | $51 | $20 | ($31) | ||||||
| Bankroll | $969 |
*two entries in that contest
Overall, the 8.05 percent rake isn't too bad, but finding the contests with the negative or small rakes (I lucked into three so far) will be key.
As for the lineups themselves, it was the Captain Obvious one that came through. I wrote about how I have little interest in grinding out small profits with obvious strategies, but looking at the example I used, maybe I'm taking the wrong lesson from it. After all, I got an A in the class for writing a dull, straightforward paper. Maybe I'm overcomplicating things. On the other hand, even though the Matt Harvey/stack Rangers call was straightforward, using Robinson Chirinos at catcher as opposed to other Rangers was not. I'm thinking maybe straightforward with a few quirks might be the way to go, like picking Kentucky to win the NCAA tournament, but putting Michigan St. in the Final Four. (That ultimately wouldn't have worked out, but you could have hedged pretty big on the Wisconsin money-line.)
In any case, I don't want to read too much into one tournament cash where I finished 73rd (out of 5746.) Looking at the top scores, the average so far has been 65.88. If we omit the ones from April 8 which look anomalously low, it's about 70. But during a 10-game slate on April 10, it was only 63.58, meaning every now and then, it takes a lower score to win. I imagine those are the days where the quirkier lineups might take down the pool as the expected big performers - in all their permutations - underproduce. The question, as always, is are those days common enough relative to the payout. It's something else to track.