It's August 6, and by now I'm pretty sure I've read a sleeper case for more than half the players in the league. Depending on league perception and ADP, anyone can go from undervalued to overvalued and vice-versa. If you run in circles where everyone's talking up Cordarrelle Patterson, maybe Greg Jennings - who could be the Vikings' No. 1 WR - is the real sleeper. Maybe when everyone's valuing upside, the real sleeper is the steady-Eddie. (Not that I necessarily agree with that, but it shows you can make a case for just about anyone.)
As a general matter, I'll define a sleeper as a player who could be good, who is undervalued (or has "hidden value") and is likely to fall outside of the first three rounds of your draft. But I want to group sleepers into a few different sub-categories that hopefully do a better job in conveying the sense of the term when applied to different types of players:
Super Obvious Sleepers: Players with jobs and skills who haven't had a top-5 round season yet
Obvious Sleepers: Players who have the physical tools to excel, but who are either blocked by a starter ahead of them or whose roles are unclear
Contrarian Sleepers: Players you've written off who have a good chance for regular opportunities
Deep Sleepers - Players who are either buried on current depth charts and/or playing for bad teams
The lists below are not necessarily players I like but rather those who I've seen plausibly argued as "sleepers":
| Super Obvious Sleepers | Obvious Sleepers | Obv. Sleepers (Cont.) | Contrarian Sleepers | Deep Sleepers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas, RB, NO | Aaron Dobson, WR, NE | Terrance West, RB, CLE | Hakeem Nicks, WR, IND | Andre Holmes, WR, OAK |
| Bishop Sankey, RB, TEN | Justin Hunter, WR, TEN | Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL | Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC | Rod Streater, WR, OAK |
| Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN | Kenny Stills, WR, NO | Andre Williams, RB, NYG | Mike Wallace, WR, MIA | Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ |
| Toby Gerhart, RB, JAC | Marvin Jones, WR, CIN | Carlos Hyde, RB, SF | Mike Williams, WR, BUF | Charles Johnson, WR, CLE |
| Zac Ertz, TE, PHI | Brandin Cooks, WR, NO | Christine Michael, RB, SEA | Greg Jennings, WR, MIN | Donte Moncrief, WR, IND |
| Terrence Williams, WR, DAL | DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU | Knile Davis, RB, KC | Reggie Wayne, WR, IND | Da'Rick Rogers, WR, IND |
| Lamar Miller, RB, MIA | Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI | Khiry Robinson, RB, NO | Danny Amendola, WR, NE | Brian Quick, WR, STL |
| Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN | Kenny Britt, WR, STL | Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN | Jerricho Cotchery, WR, CAR | Travis Kelce, TE, KC |
| Rueben Randle, WR, NYG | Marquise Lee, WR, JAC | C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN | Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, IND | Alfred Blue, RB, HOU |
| Jay Cutler, QB, CHI | Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR | Stepfan Taylor, RB, ARZ | Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ | Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, BAL |
| Andrew Hawkins, WR, CLE | Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN | Mark Ingram, RB, NO | Theo Riddick, RB, DET | |
| Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN | Bryce Brown, RB, BUF | Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL | Latavius Murray, RB, OAK | |
| Cody Latimer, WR, DEN | James White, RB, NE | Fred Jackson, RB, BUF | Marcus Lattimore, RB, SF | |
| Davante Adams, WR, GB | Tre Mason, RB, STL | Eli Manning, QB, NYG | Benny Cunningham, RB, STL | |
| Tavon Austin, WR, STL | Charles Sims, RB, TB | Carson Palmer, QB, ARZ | ||
| Ladarius Green, TE, SD | James Starks, RB, GB | Sam Bradford, QB, STL | ||
| Dwayne Allen, TE, IND | Jerrick McKinnon, RB, MIN | Heath Miller, TE, PIT | ||
| Tyler Eifert, TE, CIN | Robert Turbin, RB, SEA | |||
| Eric Ebron, TE, DET | Lance Dunbar, RB, DAL | |||
| Richard Rodgers, TE, GB | Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE |
I'm sure I'm missing quite a few names that could arguably be included, and we can also quibble about whether every player is really in the right box. We can even debate whether my chosen sub-categories are optimal (probably not). But as long as we buy the distinctions generally, it's clear we're talking about different types of "hidden value" here. Many people would bet me that Reggie Wayne will have a better PPR season than Aaron Dobson. But how many would make that wager if the bet were only valid should one of them finish in the top-10 among WR?
The obvious sleepers tend to be players whose rosier scenarios are easy to imagine as game-changing. The deep sleepers are similar, only with longer odds of it happening. The super obvious are also similar, only with a better chance of having at least some value. Essentially, the super obvious sleepers have the contrarian sleepers' floors and the obvious sleepers' ceilings. They also cost more.
The contrarian sleepers are interesting because sometimes we underestimate their ceilings, especially the RBs. Knowshon Moreno and Fred Jackson are two from last year who were difference makers, and generally speaking, the position is so context-dependent that almost anyone with a pulse can have significant value.
After the first 4-5 rounds, when all the highly skilled players, who have significant roles and have put up big numbers in the past, are off the board, we're going to have to draft some players from these lists. I tend to go heavy on the obvious sleepers and neglect the contrarian ones until much later, especially in a 12-team league and especially when you're allowed a deeper bench. (When you get to 14 or 16, Reggie Wayne's 70-catch, low-TD, zero-big-play profile has more value). But when your roster is heavy with too many players whose value is speculative, early-season byes and injuries cause significant problems. (I remember dropping Miles Austin in Week 4 of 2009 just before he became the best WR in the league over the final 12 games). In that case, having Wayne, Jennings or Bowe is often preferable.
Finally, there are some players with opportunities I've seen on no one's sleeper lists who didn't even make it into this piece:
Marques Colston, WR, Saints
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers
Steve Johnson, WR, 49ers
Lance Moore, WR, Steelers
Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
Shonn Greene, RB, Titans
Andre Brown, RB, Texans
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
If you're looking for pure value relative to opportunity, you could draft a few of them in Rounds 5-14.