Is Bryce Harper priced appropriately yet?
Let's start with the projection:
- .286 AVG, .364 OBP, .511 SLG
- 29 HR, 73 RBI
- 88 R, 10 SB
In a 15-team mixed league, Harper's 2015 RotoWire projection is worth $26 (assuming a $260 budget).
Through early drafts, he's carrying an NFBC ADP of 34.72, typically falling in the early-to-middle part of Round 3.
Here are the other hitters currently going around the same time as Harper and their projected values:
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (27.44) - $29
Justin Upton, OF, SD (30.81) - $21
Yasiel Puig, OF, LA (35.00) - $30
Victor Martinez, DH, DET (35.38) - $23
Todd Frazier, 3B, CIN (35.56) - $23
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (37.69) - $28
The average projected value of those six players is $25.67, thus it's reasonable to suggest that the price -- at least based on the projection -- seems appropriate.
Keep in mind, however, that the projection includes career highs in batting average, OBP, SLG, home runs, and RBI. Harper's age (22) and injury history make him an extremely difficult player to project, but regardless of pedigree, it's a risky proposition to buy a level of production that a player has not previously reached.
Last season, Harper's NFBC ADP was 10.76.
Clearly, there were plenty of owners willing to pay the premium for Harper last season, betting on the come and hoping to time his leap to superstardom perfectly. Injuries, including a thumb ailment, prevented that leap from happening in 2014, specifically by sapping his power.
Even if you are unwilling to buy elements of the projection shared above, the relative discount makes him enticing. Look at the various ways that a player can return $24+ over the course of a season. Here's a chart that includes the production of hitters who reached that mark last season in a 15-team league (using the RotoWire in-season Dollar Values tool):
https://i.imgur.com/YmFT93i.png
While I think it's very difficult to come up with the most likely projected line for Harper -- which is the appropriate way to project players, in my opinion -- do you have any doubt that he will produce a line nearly identical to one of the 34 players above?
If you feel that answer is yes, Harper is currently priced appropriately.
If you feel that answer is no, you are unlikely to own any shares of Harper in 2015.