Long before the first pitches are thrown in Arizona and Florida, players recovering from a variety of injuries are progressing through offseason rehab with the hope of being ready to go by Opening Day. Here are a few pitchers to monitor closely as spring training approaches.
Yu Darvish (NFBC ADP: 45.90) -- The Rangers expect to have Darvish on schedule with the team's other pitchers as a full participant when spring training begins next month. His throwing program began in December, which bodes well for the 28-year-old after his season was limited to 22 starts in 2014. Darvish was cleared to begin his throwing program last month after having an MRI. The Rangers were long out of the playoff picture last season when Darvish was shut down for the year with elbow inflammation. No structural damage has been reported, but there is considerable risk at his current price despite a career-low 2.91 FIP and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) to go with his elite strikeout rate (11.4 K/9) last season.
Adam Wainwright (NFBC ADP: 49.41) -- Wainwright is returning from surgery to trim cartilage from his right elbow, but he started throwing from a mound last week -- the same point that he was able to throw from a mound last offseason. According to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, Wainwright will have no restrictions when spring training begins. Even with the optimistic report about his progress following surgery, it's difficult to pay sticker price for Wainwright as the 11th starting pitcher off the board. While he shouldered a heavy workload again in 2014 (243 IP counting the playoffs), Wainwright's strikeout rate tumbled to 7.1 K/9, and his ERA (2.38) was more than a half run below his FIP (2.95). The Cardinals have had internal discussions about being more cautious with Wainwright's innings count this season thanks to the 520 frames he's registered since the beginning of 2013.
Michael Wacha (NFBC ADP: 168.52) -- A stress reaction in Wacha's shoulder limited him to 107 regular season innings before he served up a walk-off home run to Travis Ishikawa in the NLCS. An MRI taken Sunday revealed that his shoulder is fully healed. During his time on the mound, Wacha posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP along with a 94:33 K:BB. The current price is approximately 75-80 picks later than he was going this time a year ago. Given the discount, it may be worth rolling the dice here after Wacha carried better numbers upon arrival as a 21-year-old in 2013 (2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 65:19 K:BB).
Cliff Lee (NFBC ADP: 171.24) -- Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told reporters that Lee has thrown from a mound three or four times this month, and he's on track to be ready for the start of spring training. Coming back from a flexor pronator strain in his left elbow, the 36-year-old is available at a steep discount despite three-year averages that include an 8.8 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 3.15 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP. He could make a big move up the draft board with a healthy spring, but Lee looks like a desirable rebound target at the present time.
Jose Fernandez (NFBC ADP: 204.62) -- Fernandez is expected to throw from a mound during spring training for the first time since having Tommy John surgery last May. It's expected that he will return to the Marlins in June or July, but they will be understandably cautious with their young ace. Still, in many formats, stashing him away for even a half-season's worth of starts -- post surgery, no less -- may be worthwhile. It's prudent to dial back the expectations, but even with a 25% reduction in strikeout rate, and 25% increase in his ratios, 12-15 starts would still be beneficial in most formats.
Matt Harrison (NFBC ADP: 662.29) -- Harrison is trying to continue his career following spinal fusion surgery last June. A precise timetable for a potential move back into the Texas rotation is unavailable, but he will not throw from a mound until at least the middle of March.
Transactions
Marco Scutaro -- DFA'd by the Giants, Scutaro may hang around to try and continue to work his way back without a 40-man roster spot.
Dontrelle Willis -- Perhaps he is the second coming of Zach Duke for the Brewers? Willis seems likely to serve as a LOOGY after signing a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training Wednesday.
Carlos Corporan -- Will compete for a role in Texas, likely as the backup catcher, after being DFA'd and traded by Houston.
Hunter Morris -- DFA'd by the Brewers following Monday's trade that sent Yovani Gallardo to Texas. Morris was passed over for a callup at the end of 2014, as Matt Clark and Jason Rogers were summoned to the big leagues instead. He'll likely latch on in another organization on the strength of his .303/.357/.563 line with 28 homers at Double-A Huntsville as a 23-year-old in 2012.