Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the New Orleans Saints.
The system/scheme
• There's nothing really tricky or cute about this offense- Drew Brees will through a high percentage of his passes to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, and there's very little that defenses can do to stop it. Also, they have an excellent offensive line, and will use Kamara and Latavius Murray to run the ball successfully. The play-calling always keeps defenses on their heels, so expect this unit to function as normal.
Metrics
• Drew Brees had a 6.5% TD rate last year, which was the third-highest of his career but his 3,992 yards was his lowest total since 2005. His TD rates were right around 5% in 2014 and 2015 and he fell off a cliff in 2018 with a 4.3% rate and last year's spike now looks like 'regression' to what should be a 5% rate, so look for him to throw about 27 TDs based on the new reality that has the 40-year-old throwing roughly 500 passes per year, not the 650+ we came to expect from him in the past.
• Tre'Quan Smith has great speed- 83rd-percentile with 85th-percentile explosiveness, but he doesn't have much wiggle, as evidenced by 23rd-percentile agility. He's looking like he'll be simply a vertical threat.
• Devine Ozigbo is not very fast (31st-percentile speed), but he has 82nd-percentile explosiveness along with 70th-percentile agility. With Mark Ingram gone, he could step into a big role as a receiver should Alvin Kamara suffer an injury. He has great hands and receiving backs can explode in Sean Payton's offense, at least while Drew Brees is still around.
Positive Spin
• As long as Brees, Kamara and Thomas stay healthy, we continue to see an efficient Saints offense.
Negative Spin
• The defense takes another big step forward and becomes dominant, which allows the Saints to be less aggressive on offense and becoming an even heavier running team. The lack of volume hurts Brees and Thomas, though Kamara and Latavius Murray remain as strong fantasy options.
My advice-
• Drew Brees- With the Saints likely continue to run to control the clock and strategically pass the ball, don't let last year's TDs fool you, we're likely looking at a borderline starting fantasy option who will have many weeks in which his numbers aren't enough for fantasy managers.
• Alvin Kamara no longer has to worry about Mark Ingram lurking in the shadows, but the addition of Latavius Murray could keep Kamara from seeing some of the goal line work in New Orleans. However, he did see the fourth-most red-zone touches of any RB last year, so he won't go away near the end zone. Despite the potential emergence of targets, Kamara and Michael Thomas should continue to see most of the high-leverage work, and with carries and receptions combined, Kamara should continue to be a strong RB1. It also should be noted that he's 215 pounds, so it's not like he's a scatback who can't take the pounding of the position. He's worth his top-four fantasy draft price.
• Latavius Murray steps into the Mark Ingram role, and although Murray will be turning 30-years-old soon, this is easily the best offense he's ever been on. Between having a strong OL and a coach whose play design is unmatched, Murray should have standalone fantasy value as at least a flex option. With an ADP roughly 100 picks into a draft, he's a value pick for sure.
• Not much to say about Michael Thomas- he catches almost everything thrown his way, coverage against him doesn't really matter, and he's Drew Brees' top target in all situations. He's not in the running to be the top overall WR, but near the end of the first round of fantasy drafts as the third or fourth WR off the board, he's the closest thing there is to bust-proof.
• To start the 2018 season, Ted Ginn had scored in two-of-three games while posting 55 and 68 yards in two of those games before missing 11 games with an injury. In his one game after his return, he went 5/74 while also posting 44 and 58 yards in the team's two playoff games. Yes, Tre'Quan Smith may become a thing, but Ginn was still productive last year and he has the full trust of Drew Brees. To make things better, between Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, defenses can't afford to double Ginn very often, which is why Brees keeps going his way. Smith is definitely a threat to take some of Ginn's work, and even his role entirely, but until that is known, we have to assume Ginn is the WR2 in N.O. and a candidate for 700 yards and a few TDs. At his ADP, he's a great WR5.
• Tre'Quan Smith had a pair of monster games while Ted Ginn missed time last year, but he seemed to be clearly behind Ginn on the depth chart during the playoffs last year, and with trust being a huge factor with Drew Brees, Smith may remain in that role this year. I know the fantasy community loves Smith, but I think he's still a year away.
• Jared Cook will benefit from an offense that features Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara and he's coming off two of the three best yardage seasons of his 10-year career. Based on his career, he's not likely to be a top-3 TE, but he could easily finish in the top-eight, but his ADP of 60 is expecting the high end of that range. That said, he's still a great target in the middle of the field, and this is the first above average QB he'll have ever played with. In addition, Brees is great throwing over the middle of the field, so it wouldn't shock me if he matched his career-high 6 TDs and flirted with 700 yards. If he fell to pick 80 or so, I'd feel a lot better about drafting him.