Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the New England Patriots.
The system/scheme
• Rob Gronkowski is retired, Tom Brady and Julian Edelman are another year older, Josh Gordon is suspended, and the team continues to add RBs and TEs to the roster. If you ask me, by continuing to add those RBs and TEs, Bill Belichick is making his next move to account for a declining passing attack. I am expecting him to run a ton of 12, 13 and 21 personnel (multiple RBs and/or TEs) so that he can force defenses into their base, and the Pats can throw out of these favorable formations. Yes, they'll also run, but being that they are in tune with analytics, they'll run in manageable situations, and have a ton of success doing so.
• Also, with the lack of a downfield passing attack- between Brady's declining arm strength and a lack of vertical weapons (I know they drafted N'Keal Harry, but he's a rookie, and I'm not counting on him being a factor from day one), defenses will have some decisions to make. I expect that the smarter defensive coaches will bracket Edelman and possibly spy James White, especially since defenses may be in their base formation frequently. I think they'll dare Brady to beat them deep. If defenses use and have success with this concept, the Pats could be in for a long season on offense.
Metrics
• N'Keal Harry has 91st-percentile speed and 78th-percentile explosiveness, but he only has 38th-percentile agility, making him look like simply a vertical WR. As a rookie, he may be used more as a decoy to draw safety help, than as a highly-targeted WR.
• Damien Harris has above average speed with a 77th-percentile explosiveness score (he didn't test for agility), and he could be well-suited to produce well if given the chance. With Sony Michel dealing with knee issues, Harris could see significant work as a rookie.
Positive Spin
• After seeing an 11 percent drop in deep accuracy last year, Brady defies age and is able to become a more efficient downfield passer, which opens up the offense, especially when throwing out of 12 and 21 personnel. Also, N'Keal Harry has immediate chemistry with Brady and becomes a lethal deep threat. Also, the defense struggles to gel (as they often do early in the season), forcing the offense to be aggressive, which leads to big fantasy points.
Negative Spin
• Brady starts to show his age while defenses take away Edelman and White, forcing the Pats into running an offense they're not comfortable with. Instead of dictating to defenses, they no longer have the elite personnel at key spots to do so, and they not only stack the box, but get enormous pressure on Brady. Overall, this causes the offense to function below league average.
My advice-
• Tom Brady was a QB2 last year, and his deep accuracy dropped by 11%. Now, he'll (likely) be without Gronk and he has a questionable set of WRs. He'll continue to lead the Pats to wins, but not many fantasy teams. Let's say his upside is middle of the road QB2, and someone will likely draft him before that.
• Sony Michel had a great rookie season when healthy and he was a beast in the playoffs with three 100-yard games and 6 TDs. That said, he'll still be out on passing downs, and more importantly, the Pats drafted Damien Harris, who easily could cut into Michel's workload- possibly significantly, including goal line work. That risk makes him hard to trust with a high ADP, and unless something gets solidified in training camp (which is unlikely), he doesn't get enough work to justify his draft position. And all of this doesn't even take into account a chronic knee condition that he had worked on this offseason.
• James White should continue to see a lot of work with Gronk retired along with Hogan and Amendola gone. Aside from Edelman, White will be the safety valve that Brady trusts most in the passing game. Fantasy owners, though, are paying for his 1,176 total yards and 12 TDs of 2018 by selecting him in the top-60, but if defenses start to key on him, he may get receptions, but his yardage could take a massive hit.
• Damien Harris will become really interesting as a fantasy play if Sony Michel misses time, but otherwise, he'll have a role, but not likely a prominent role with three other useful RBs the Patriots consistently count on. Harris could be the goal line back, which would have value, but there's no guarantee of that, but the Pats likely would want to protect Michel's knees from the mass of bodies at the goal line. His ADP of 127 is a bit high, especially since it's a gamble that someone gets hurt, but it's an upside pick because the NE backfield tends to score a lot of points.).
• Julian Edelman is 33-years-old, and he may simply be unstoppable at what he does. With his ability to run option routes and Brady's ability to read it and deliver the football, nobody's really been able to stop it. That said, with no Gronk, and if Josh Gordon doesn't come back, there's no established receiving threat that opponents have to worry about that would stop them from bracketing Edelman and taking away option routes. I feel he's risky at his ADP.
• Josh Gordon is suspended but was productive after joining the Pats at midseason last year- also he worked with Brady in the offseason, so they likely have built some rapport. Of course, Gordon has to be reinstated, a big if, to have fantasy value, and we've sat around many a year without seeing him play, so it's smart to be skeptical. But with an ADP of 272, there aren't many players with that type of upside in the endgame of drafts. Even if he goes into the 220s, he could be a great dart throw.
• Phillip Dorsett had at least 44 yards (with an average of 55 yards) with 2 TDs over a three-week span that included games in Weeks 1, 2 and 4. Soon thereafter, Josh Gordon showed up, and he only saw 13 targets in 10 games. Even though the team has Edelman and N'Keal Harry, with Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola gone, he'd likely be a full-time player in 3WR sets, and with the chemistry he showed early in the year with Brady, he could be a great last-round pick (ADP is 318).
• I'm skeptical that N'Keal Harry is a factor as a rookie, so I won't be taking a chance on a player who profiles as a deep threat.
• Ben Watson is suspended to start the season, but even at 38 years old, he may be able to have some production when he returns. That said, he only should be drafted as a TE2, as he may offer decent value upon his return.
• Rob Gronkowski is retired, and he looked like a shell of himself last year-injuries clearly took their toll on him. He says there's a 40% chance he comes back, but he's nowhere near being in football shape. He'd need to gain significant weight, and also need to get his legs back. Unless he falls super-late and you have a pick to waste, then maybe take a flier on him, but I wouldn't go out of my way- he wasn't very good last year.