Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Minnesota Vikings.
The system/scheme
• After the Vikings passing game took off in the first half of the season, HC Mike Zimmer fired OC John DeFilippo because they were passing the ball too much. Ouch- yes, in 2018, that really happened! Once OC Kevin Stefanski took over, Adam Thielen did less, Kyle Rudolph did more (there was more usage of 12 personnel), and Dalvin Cook saw his workload ramped up. Keep in mind that this may continue this season.
• If there's good news that the Vikings will be inefficient and run the ball, then at least they brought in Gary Kubiak, who is one of the best run-game architects in the business. They added 3 OL in the draft, including first and fourth round picks.
Metrics
• Alexander Mattison was a third-round pick and has bellcow RB size, but aside from a 75th-percentile explosiveness score, he has 38th-percentile speed and 48th-percentile agility, so he looks like an ordinary player who would best be used as an early-down grinder should Cook miss time.
• Adam Thielen has ability both in the slot and outside, which especially demonstrated by having the ninth-highest contested catch rate in the league that allows him to continue to be targeted with confidence by Kirk Cousins. Aiding his fantasy production was that he was fourth in the league in air yards, so don't make the mistake of thinking he's merely a possession guy.
• Stefon Diggs needed 102 catches to barely break the 1,000-yard barrier in 2018- the first time he's done so in his four-year career. He's been a strong TD producer (eight and nine) over the past two seasons, and he's also failed to top 10.8 YPR in two of the last three years, so he looks to be settling in as a possession WR, though he'll be just 25-years-old this season, so he still could turn into more.
Positive Spin
• The defense is not as stout as expected and the coaching staff is forced to lean upon the strength of their offense, which is their passing attack. As a result, the offense functions as one of the better units in the league, and there's fantasy production to go around for everyone.
Negative Spin
• The defense remains solid and can keep most offenses from scoring less than 20 points per game, which allows the Vikings to use their rushing attack to shorten games. Aside from Dalvin Cook, the passing game is very erratic and tough to trust for fantasy. The WRs take turns having productive games, and neither is worth his ADP while Cousins has too many QB2 performances.
My advice-
• Kirk Cousins should get better protection this year- the Vikings added three OL in the draft. However, there is concern about HC Mike Zimmer wanting to be a run-heavy team. After firing OC John DeFilippo during the season last year, Cousins threw for 215 yards or fewer in four of the last five games while throwing just a single TD during that time. This was after he threw for at least 290 yards six times in 11 games. Since the coaching move was intentional and is expected to be used again this year, it's hard to count on Cousins as any more than a QB2 with limited upside.
• Dalvin Cook has missed significant time while also being limited in other games due to injuries- sure, he may be fully healthy and have a huge season, but it's tough to sink a late-first or early-second round pick into a player who doesn't have a full season to his credit. I'd rather take a safer player with that premium pick that it would require to select Cook. That said, if you like risk, he could be a top-eight RB this year in this offense.
• I love Thielen's game and have no doubt that he's become one of the best WRs in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Vikings tipped their hand late last season in terms of what they want their offense to look like and the offseason moves confirmed that direction. Because I see an inconsistent year coming for the Minnesota passing attack, I can't take Thielen in the third round.
• My argument against drafting Diggs is the same as to why I won't draft Thielen (see above).
• Kyle Rudolph had a huge blowup game last year, but otherwise, he didn't have much upside at all. I'd rather take a chance on a TE who could be on the verge of breaking out, but the one way I would draft Rudolph would be in TE-premium leagues as my second option.
• Irv Smith is an exciting prospect, but with so many established players in the offense, I'd rather stash him in dynasty leagues.