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Cowboys- Scheme and Metrics Preview

Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Dallas Cowboys.

The system/scheme

• Unfortunately, there's no real clue as to what new OC Kellen Moore will do with this offense. This isn't a prediction, but a hope- after the Cowboys' bye last year, they must have had someone sell the team on analytics, because they finally started throwing the ball to Ezekiel Elliott on early downs, and it completely revitalized the offense. Some think the improvements were due to Amari Cooper's arrival, and that may be partly true, but the move to analytics made a huge difference. If they continue this move forward, this becomes an emerging offense, especially with Travis Frederick and Jason Witten back, and both are amazing blockers

  • Based on interviews with Moore, he plans on talking to the players about what plays they like, but more importantly, the coach hasn't gone on record to talk about anything he plans to do that would give fantasy owners hope that this offense will become a goldmine. I'm pessimistic because  'player's coach' is a cool concept, but that's not the recipe for an analytics-based model.

Metrics

• It seems that the Cowboys 'unlocked' Amari Cooper last year- he has 92nd-percentile speed along with 97th-percentile agility. Those two elements make him deadly as the primary receiving weapon for a team with a dominant rushing attack.

• Looking for Elliott's handcuff? Me too! Metrics show Mike Weber as fast (82nd-percentile speed), but little agility (22nd- percentile) while Tony Pollard is slower (66th-percentile speed) but above-average agility and explosion. Unless one of these guys really stands out, I think we're looking at a committee.

Positive Spin-

• With Frederick and Witten back this year, both the run and pass protection return to elite levels, which allows the triplets (Dak Prescott, Elliott and Cooper) to be dominant. In addition, if the team uses heavy personnel (12 and 13) to throw on early downs, they will consistently find themselves moving the chains and putting points on the board.

Negative Spin-

• This may be a non-issue by the time you read this, but Elliott holds out. Elliott is one of the few RBs in the league who likely can't just be replaced by backups- his loss could cripple the offense.

• Kellen Moore is overmatched calling plays at the NFL level, and he does what many before him have- play outdated football concepts that lead to poor/inconsistent offensive production.

My advice-

  • For the second year in a row (assuming he ends his potential holdout), I have Elliott as the No. 1 player on my board. Aside from the production, he's never been on a regular-season injury report, which is a huge statement.
  • Cooper had too many down games- if the Cowboys get an early lead, they are one of those teams who could simply take the air out of the football. There are too many other players I like in the third round of drafts, meaning I'll have to pass on him.
  • Prescott has been a QB1 each season of his young career, but he has a lot of games in which he disappears- I like him as a QB2, and the good news is that he often can be drafted at that range, and he's an even better pick in best-ball leagues.
  • Michael Gallup should see plenty of single-coverage as an outside deep threat, and he should see improvement from an inconsistent rookie season- he's worth a late pick in drafts as a WR5.
  • Jason Witten is back from retirement, but he'll likely be a bigger asset as a blocker than receiver- he should get some red zone looks and be useful to move the chains on third downs, but it's unlikely he's more than a TE2 for fantasy.