Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Cincinnati Bengals.
The system/scheme
• Zac Taylor takes over as HC and his claim to fame is that he was Sean McVay's OC for the Rams last year. It's unclear how much of a hand Taylor had in the offense, but if he follows his mentor's offense, we'll see lots of 11 personnel with WRs aligned closely to the formation to get them free releases while also allowing them to help on run plays. They'll also be able to run rub routes to get each other open. If John Ross is healthy and is an NFL-caliber player, they'll be able to use him with A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd to form a potentially lethal trio. The offense would also open up a ton of opportunities for Joe Mixon, and the outside zone run plays fit very well with Mixon's skill set.
• A concern is that the team already lost a pair of offensive linemen for the season due to injuries, taking the unit from one that was becoming a strength of the team, but now, optimism must be tempered.
• It's not as if Taylor won't have weapons to implement his system- In 2018, they had horrible injury luck- they lost their top 2 TEs by week 5. They lost A.J. Green near midseason before losing Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd later in the year. But through Week 8, they were averaging 28 points per game. For now, the skill players are healthy going into camp.
Metrics
• Joe Mixon could take another jump ahead in fantasy production if the team successfully implements an outside-zone system- not only has he shown to be elusive at the NFL level, but he also has 93rd percentile speed that'll help him create big plays.
• Yes, he's been an NFL bust so far, but if John Ross is healthy and clicks in the 'Brandin Cooks' role in the offense, he is one of the fastest players in the league while possessing 86th percentile explosion. Should he have an impressive training camp, he'll be worth a late-round flier in deep leagues.
Positive Spin
• Zac Taylor successfully implements McVay's offense and with an excellent set of WRs to go with Joe Mixon. Andy Dalton has easy reads and leads the offense to being a well-above average unit.
• Tyler Eifert stays healthy and John Ross finally realizes his potential, giving the Bengals a set of weapons that rivals any team other than the Chiefs.
Negative Spin
• Taylor puts his own spin on the offense, and it doesn't have nearly the success that McVay's system has had- Cinci ultimately is a good, but not great offense, because that's what we've usually seen from Andy Dalton.
• A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert miss time with injuries, and there isn't enough depth at the skill positions to put stress on defenses, allowing defenses to pressure Dalton while containing Mixon and Boyd.
My advice-
• Yes, A.J. Green is over 30 and has missed 13 games over the past three seasons, but he had at least 69 yards in all but one game last year (before missing the second half due to injury) and he had 6 TDs in 8 games. At an ADP around pick 30, I'll be happy to take a chance that he's past his injury woes.
• Even though Boyd broke out last year, all of his measurables are below the 50th-percentile- maybe he's just a good football player who plays better than his athleticism, but I'll likely let someone else bet on him at his ADP.
• Although the OL injuries do concern me, if I see in the preseason that Taylor is definitely running McVay's system, then Joe Mixon could be an absolute monster and return elite RB production for a late first-round pick.