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Panthers- Scheme and Metrics Preview

Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Carolina Panthers.

Cam Newton (shoulder) is expected to be fully healthy, and he'll look to continue the growth be he and the entire offense showed under OC Norv Turner last year, so this could be an underrated fantasy offense.

The system/scheme

• I was guilty of criticizing the Panthers for hiring OC Norv Turner last year, as I saw him as archaic coordinator who would set this offense back 20 years with outdated football philosophies. I was wrong! Turner used elements of his typical offense, but he followed analytics by throwing the ball on early downs, which allowed Cam Newton to become much more efficient as a passer.

• Instead of relying on old-school Panthers' football by throwing the ball downfield to big, lumbering WRs, as the season went on, Newton began getting rid of the ball quickly, and frequently threw to explosive run-after-the-catch weapons like Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore- this appears to be a staple that will continue.

Metrics

• D.J. Moore is in at least the 89th-percentile in speed, explosion and catch radius while having very respectable 74th-percentile agility. Over the last nine games last year, he was basically a full-time player who saw a 17.2% target share, which could be significantly increased this year.

• Don't fall into the trap that Curtis Samuel is a clone of D.J. Moore- Samuel does have a 100th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, but his explosion is 58th-percentile along with bottom-third agility. He may be a gadget guy and deep threat, but he's not nearly the athlete that Moore is.

• Should Greg Olsen miss time, Ian Thomas could immediately become a TE1. Thomas boasts 70th-percentile speed, 83rd-percentile explosion and top-quarter agility, and once Olsen was lost at the end of the season, Thomas had at least 46 yards in 4 of 5 games while scoring in each of his last 2 games.

• Cameron Artis-Payne is often deactivated on game days because he doesn't really factor into special teams, but if Christian McCaffrey was forced to miss time, Artis-Payne has 70th percentile speed with above-average agility, and he would likely be the player to who would see the most snaps.

Positive Spin:

• Moore should join McCaffrey as a featured player in the offense and they will become a matchup nightmare for defenses, which will allow both Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen more room to operate. Moore is potentially a superstar , who could be ready for a blowup season.

• Newton will continue to throw on early downs while also getting the ball out quickly, which will be less taxing on his shoulder while keeping him from taking a ton of hits. This also will keep the offense efficient and moving the chains.

Negative Spin:

• If Newton's shoulder isn't full recovered from his offseason surgery, and if that keeps him from being able to throw the ball deep, defenses will pack things in and gum up the entire offense.

• McCaffrey played on 95% of the downs for the Panthers last year- he saw an incredible work load, especially for a player who doesn't weigh much more than 200 pounds. There is a real chance that that amount of work catches up with him by making him less effective this season. Also, after HC Ron Rivera said McCaffrey would see a ton of touches last year, he did, but now Rivera is on record saying that he'll look to reduce the amount of work his RB gets. In either case, the offense needs him and could be hurt without him at full usage/capacity.

My advice-

• I'll (maybe foolishly) pass on McCaffrey- first, I have David Johnson ranked higher this year, but I'm concerned about him holding up under another big workload.

• With Cam Newton going as a borderline QB1 (11 or 12), he's someone I'll definitely consider drafting at or near ADP, as I have him ranked as my QB9.

• I really want to own D.J. Moore in as many leagues as possible- I imagine that means I'll need to spend a fourth-round pick, but I'd rather use a fifth-rounder on him.

• In deep leagues that require two TEs, I'd be willing to take a flier on Ian Thomas and be ready to drop him when I needed the spot, but knowing that if Olsen misses time, I have a potential goldmine on my hands.