I'm reprising this exercise from last year because I think it's useful to identify potential breakouts and upside plays.

There are essentially four variables that determine a player's value: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Team Context; and (4) Role. Of the four, (1) and (4) are most subject to dramatic change, so I've eliminated them for the purposes of these rankings.

In the first table, I assume every player were guaranteed 16 games. In the second, I've ranked the top-20 QB, RB, WR and TE irrespective of roles, i.e., assuming everyone had an equal number of basic opportunities. For QBs, that's 550 passing attempts, for RBs, that's 250 carries, for WRs and TEs, that's 130 targets. (I'm assuming a full PPR format.)

Health-Neutral Rankings

Several players see significant boosts: Deshaun Watson goes from No. 3 to the top overall QB, Andrew Luck jumps from No. 11 on my actual board (he'd be higher in 12-team 1-QB format, but my projections have to account for superflex and 2-QB leagues, too) to No. 6, and Ben Roethlisberger to No. 13 from 15.

At RB, Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson move ahead of Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman slots at No. 11, and Dion Lewis jumps to No. 18 from No. 21.

At WR, Josh Gordon (accounting for mental health), Alshon Jeffrey, Doug Baldwin and Allen Robinson are the biggest risers. Reliable types like Adam Thielen drop slightly.

Finally at TE, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert get major boosts as they did last year.

Let's take a look at the Opportunity-Neutral Ranks. These eliminate not only health (you can't have opportunities without it), but also the hard-to-predict whims of coaches and coordinators:

Opportunity-Neutral Rankings

You'll notice the running QBs dominate – give them sufficient passing volume, and the stationary QBs simply can't compete. Moreover, running QBs are at greater risk of injury, and this eliminates that variable too. While that risk is real, and running QBs lose attempts when they elect to take off rather than check down, the list still gives you an idea of what would happen if due to game script the running QB had to throw an inordinate amount, e.g., 2015 Blake Bortles who finished as the No. 3 fantasy QB. You might also notice I put Lamar Jackson at No. 5 – he'd be a monster with 550 attempts given his rushing skills.

At RB, a few players jump up – Alvin Kamara would be No. 1 overall if he tied for the league-lead in carries - he's not only a prolific pass catcher, but he was also the league's most efficient runner on the ground last year and playing in an elite offense.  I avoided putting third-down specialists like Theo Riddick or Tarik Cohen in the rankings as there's virtually no way they'd see that kind of early-down workload. I included Christian McCaffrey (No. 6) though, given his coach's innumerate proclamations. Aaron Jones, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel also get significant bumps.

At WR, Juju Smith-Schuster checks in at No. 5 - he'll regress on a per-play basis obviously, but he's a bigger red-zone target than Antonio Brown, and made massive plays all of last season. Big-play threats like Tyreek Hill and Marquise Goodwin would also push for the league yardage title if they saw that many targets. DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen are volume guys, so they fall accordingly.

Finally, at TE, it's similar to the health list with Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed seeing the biggest boosts. David Njoku showed enough last year, that he'd be interesting if they got him the ball.