What a disastrous week. All three of my first-round playoff teams got bounced, two of which had Amari Cooper, and my powerhouse NFFC team (23rd out of ~2,500-ish teams in the regular season) might be drawing dead in the three-week playoff, thanks to Alvin Kamara getting hurt, Jimmy Graham getting a zero and my starting Graham in the flex over Jamaal Williams (who had 30.8 points.)
What's especially infuriating is I would have started Williams over Graham (or Hunter Henry with Graham at TE), except that on Twitter I saw a Packers beat writer had suggested Aaron Jones would get the bulk of the work this week. I asked him if that's what Mike McCarthy said or whether it was simply his opinion, and he didn't respond. (It turns out he did respond later, just not to me, and I don't follow him.)
Even so, I assumed it was merely his opinion and largely discounted it, but it was just enough to sow a little doubt. Given Graham and Henry were solid options in full PPR, I played it "safe" and sat Williams.
The moral of this story is while team beat writers know more about their teams than you ever will and can be useful in unearthing relevant facts, never put stock in their opinions and conclusions. Many are not fantasy players, they have no special skill in predicting the future and no skin in the game when making those predictions. It probably won't matter in the end - even with Williams my odds of winning the whole thing were long, and I might have used Graham over Henry had I stuck with him, costing me 15 points instead of the full 30, but it's tilting to make an unforced error after such a good season.
I honestly thought I'd feel better after putting my disappointment into words, but I feel worse. What a stupid way to squander a team in a contest where the top prize is $100K.
• The Ravens still have not allowed a 300- or 400-yard passer this year. They do have a 500-yarder in Ben Roethlisberger, though. Roethlisberger had a solid 7.7 YPA, but it was the 66 attempts that got him there. Still, 66 attempts at 7.7 with no picks is pretty good, though he had only two TD passes.
• When there are 500-yard passers, there are big receiving games. Antonio Brown had an 18-11-213 mark, Jesse James 12-10-97 and Le'Veon Bell 10-9-77. Martavis Bryant's 10-6-33 line is disappointing in context.
• Brown has 627 yards over his last four games and 1,509 for the year in 13 games. Prorated over a full season, that's 1,857, which would be good for third all time. Brown and Bell, who had 125 YFS and three TDs, remain the league's top-two fantasy players.
• The Ravens offense woke up last week and stayed woke. Joe Flacco had 7.7 YPA, 269 yards and two more TDs vs. one pick, though he spread the ball around. Mike Wallace led the team with a 5-3-72 line, and Jeremy Maclin had a terrible 11-3-27 showing.
• Alex Collins was the Ravens' offensive star with 166 YFS and a TD. Buck Allen scored twice, but had only 57 YFS.
• Russell Wilson is playing on another plane. He threw three picks, but got 8.7 YPA against the league's top pass defense. Moreover, he brought the Seahawks back from a 17-point deficit and might have come away with a win but for a missed call on a blatant hold during the team's final drive. Wilson also ran for 50 yards. There's no defense that can hang with him for 60 minutes.
• As mentioned in the intro, Graham killed teams with his 2-0-0 line. I actually thought because the Jaguars outside cover men were so good, Graham might get more work.
• Tyler Lockett, Paul Richardson and Doug Baldwin each had catches of 40-plus yard and scored one TD. None had more than seven targets.
• Mike Davis ran well (15-for-66) but didn't make an impact in the passing game.
• It's crazy the Seahawks have stuck with Blair Walsh. It's like that year the Phillies kept Brad Lidge as their closer when he had a 7.21 ERA.
• Blake Bortles played a great game - 9.9 YPA, 268 yards, two TDs, no sacks and no turnovers.
• Keenan Cole caught a 75-yard TD, while Dede Westbrook led the team with five catches and also scored. Marqise Lee went 6-5-65.
• Leonard Fournette was solid, with 24 carries, 101 yards, a TD and four catches. He also sealed the game with a first-down run.
• Carson Wentz played another good game with four more TD passes and some unreal escapes, but he's potentially out for the year with a torn ACL. Nick Foles might be quarterbacking the NFC's current No. 1 seed. (Remember peak (2013) Foles put up far better numbers than present-day Wentz!)
• Three Eagles receivers had 11 targets (Alshon Jeffrey, Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor.) Jeffrey scored the TD, Smith led the team with 100 receiving yards and Agholor had the most catches (8.) Trey Burton, filling in for the injured Zach Ertz, had a 6-5-71-2 line.
• Jay Ajayi finally saw the bulk of the workload on the ground - 15 carries for 78 yards - but he's rarely used as a pass catcher, and who gets the ball at the goal line is anyone's guess. That said with Foles under center, the Eagles might finally be forced to run more generally and use Ajayi, their best back, as much as possible.
• Jared Goff had a solid 199 yards on 7.7 YPA, two TDs with no picks and only two sacks against a tough defense. He did lose a key fumble on a sack where he held the ball too long.
• If Bell and Brown are the top two fantasy players, Todd Gurley is No. 3. He had two rushing TDs, three catches, 135 yards from scrimmage and averaged 7.4 YPC against the league's No. 1 ranked run defense.
• Cooper Kupp led the team with a 7-5-118-1 line, and he was the only receiver that did anything of note. Sammy Watkins scored, but had only three catches for 21 yards.
• Greg Zuerlein carried teams this year, but was relegated to kicking five PATs.
• The Chargers are a top-7 NFL team right now. The only reason the Redskins got to 13 was backup QB Kellen Clemens threw a pick six late.
• Philip Rivers was at the top of his game again - 10.3 YPA, two TDs, no picks, two sacks. Keenan Allen led the team with eight targets and posted his fourth straight 100-yard game. Tyrell Williams had a 75-yard TD and 132 total yards on four targets and Hunter Henry went 6-4-50-1.
• Melvin Gordon struggled for 78 yards on 22 carries, but scored a TD and caught one pass.
• The Chargers defense shut down Kirk Cousins - only 5.6 YPA, one TD and one pick. No receiver had even 35 yards, though Vernon Davis scored a TD.
• In what phase of the game are the Titans above average? Possibly none.
• Marcus Mariota isn't right. He took another three sacks, threw two picks and posted just 5.1 YPA against the Cardinals. His receivers obviously didn't do much, and while Derrick Henry scored a short TD, he and DeMarco Murray combined for 67 YFS.
• Kerwynn Williams had another 20 carries, but for only 73 yards. Larry Fitzgerald led the team with a modest 7-5-44 line as the Cardinals didn't score a TD.
• Josh McCown broke his hand, and the Jets were shut out. Robby Anderson led the team with 27 receiving yards, and Bilal Powell led with 35 on the ground. We could be looking at Bryce Petty in Week 15.
• Trevor Siemian played passably, and Demaryius Thomas had a 12-8-93-1 line. Emmanuel Sanders caught one of four targets for 16 yards.
• Jimmy G is a G. He passed for 334 yards (10.1 YPA), one TD and one pick en route to the team's second straight road win. Carlos Hyde went 14 for 78 and a TD, but he failed to catch his only target. Garoppolo isn't looking to check down like C.J. Beathard, and Hyde's passing-game usage is suffering.
• Marquise Goodwin went 12-6-106 and could be a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs due to the QB upgrade.
• Tom Savage was hit hard and had what looked like a small seizure before being sent back into the game. Eventually he was removed for the more effective T.J. Yates. Savage is now in the concussion protocol, but it's hard to see him getting his job back after Yates threw for 185 yards and two scores.
• DeAndre Hopkins had another big game - 16-11-149-2, while making ridiculous sideline catches, irrespective of the quarterback. He's up to 155-88-1233-11 on the year, numbers that prorate to 191-108-1,518-14 over 16 games. Lamar Miller was disappointing as usual.
• Cam Newton had a bad game by the numbers - 5.5. YPA, one TD, one pick, two sacks - but he made an incredible throw under pressure for the team's lone TD pass and also won the game on a 62-yard scramble.
• Jonathan Stewart had 16 carries for 103 yards and three TDs, probably on your bench. He benefitted from an untouched 60-yard scamper early.
• Devin Funchess (7-3-59-1) was largely held in check until Newton scrambled and found him in the end zone. Greg Olsen played most of the game, but failed to record a catch on his only target. You'd have to be desperate to use him in Week 15.
• Jerick McKinnon was the more effective runner than Latavius Murray for a change, but McKinnon had only seven carries to Murray's nine.
• Adam Thielen had another big game - 13-6-105-1, but dropped one TD and juggled another that was ruled incomplete (I didn't think it was a bobble, but a repositioning of the ball with control, but the replay officials saw it differently.) Stefon Diggs went 10-6-64.
• Case Keenum threw two picks and lost a fumble, but he managed 280 passing yards, two TDs and 40 yards on the ground. Kyle Rudolph caught another TD.
• Matthew Stafford played despite a hand injury and threw for 381 yards (8.7 YPA), but he was sloppy at times with two picks. His only TD was to Golden Tate who had eight catches for 85 yards.
• After being buried early due to some bad drops, Eric Ebron has become a significant factor - 11-10-94, though he lost a fumble. Marvin Jones saw only four targets.
• Theo Riddick had six catches for 64 yards on 10 targets and also led the team with 10 carries and two rushing scores. He has a nice PPR floor even without the goal-line carries.
• Peyton Barber out-carried and outproduced Doug Martin, though Martin got the TD.
• Chris Godwin led the team in receiving with a 6-5-68 line. Mike Evans had only five targets and 25 yards receiving. DeSean Jackson led with seven targets but went a modest 4-for-41, and O.J. Howard had a 6-4-54-1 line. Cameron Brate caught his only target for 11 yards.
• Jameis Winston was sloppy - two picks, three sacks and a fumble. It's amazing how differently we'd grade the first two picks of the 2015 draft vs. the 2016 one from last year to now.
• Why did the Giants fire the coach and GM now rather than at the end of the year, simply so Eli Manning's useless carcass could throw checkdowns for four more games? In addition to getting a meager 5.0 YPA at home against a weak defense, Manning threw two picks and missed a wide open receiver on at least one occasion. Even his lone TD throw was low, causing TE Rhett Ellison to make a tougher catch than was necessary.
• Wayne Gallman seems to have taken over the larger role with 12 carries to Orleans Darkwa's 10 and nine targets and seven catches for 40 yards.
• Shane Vereen is the guy you throw to on 3rd and 12 if you need a six yard gain. And (hat tip to Andrew Laird), Eli recognizes it.
• Dak Prescott had a big game - 332 yards, 11.1 YPA, three TDs, no picks, no sacks and 13 rushing yards. Much of it was Rod Smith and Dez Bryant running after the catch.
• Bryant went 5-3-73-1, but the Cowboys didn't use him much after he broke a slant for a long TD. Smith caught all five of his targets for 113 yards and a score and had another 47 yards and a TD on the ground. Zeke Elliott is out one more week, so it'll be interesting to see how Smith and Alfred Morris (19-for-62) are used against the Raiders.
• Derek Carr salvaged a terrible game in garbage time, but the Chiefs were a weak pass defense to begin with and were missing their top cover corner. It didn't help that Amari Cooper re-injured his ankle early, but Carr (5.1 YPA, one TD, two INT, three sacks) has been Eli Manning-esque this year.
• Michael Crabtree managed to turn 13 targets into seven catches for 60 yards against the Marcus Peters-less Chiefs. Jared Cook had a 6-5-75-1 line.
• Marshawn Lynch ran well again and scored, but saw only seven carries due to game flow. Lynch still looks good, but with that defense and QB, the setup is not usually favorable to him.
• Alex Smith was solid in real life, but drops and reversed TDs cost him fantasy-wise. Kareem Hunt showed up at long last with 116 rushing yards and a score. Still, Hunt had only three catches for 22 yards, as the Chiefs are not making it a priority to use him in the passing game.
• Travis Kelce had a modest seven catches for 74 yards on 13 targets, though a costly drop at the five and overturned calls cost him a couple TDs. Tyreek Hill went 6-4-75 and Albert Wilson got involved with 7-5-72.
• No one blows the cover like the Browns. They were getting 3.5, but had to cough up the TD rather than the FG in overtime, even though a FG would have won it for the Packers.
• I sat DeShone Kizer for Jared Goff in that same NFFC league, and while it only cost me a few points, it looked like it might be much worse given how Kizer started out. For some reason, he stopped targeting Josh Gordon (6-3-69-1) in the second half, and the Browns scored only seven more points all game. Kizer finished with 7.6 YPA, but threw a back-breaking pick in overtime.
• Corey Coleman (6-5-62-1) also showed up, and Duke Johnson had 41 receiving yards and a TD. Isaiah Crowell rushed for 121 yard on 19 carries and also caught three short passes.
• Jamaal Williams had 15 carries for 49 yards and and a score and also caught all seven targets for 69 yards and another TD. Aaron Jones had four carries for minus two yards and no targets. It looks like Williams is still the starter.
• Brett Hundley had a modest real-life game - 5.8 YPA - but he threw three TDs, passed for 265 yards and rushed for 31 yards. Davante Adams was the other beneficiary with a 14-10-84-2 line, including the game-winner in overtime.
• How bad are the Bengals? Andy Dalton got 4.9 YPA and threw a pick, while A.J. Green had only five catches for 64 yards on 12 targets and lost a fumble. Only Gio Bernard - 11 carries for 62 yard and six catches for 68 yards - did anything of note.
• Jordan Howard ran roughshod over the Bengals with 23 carries for 147 yards and two scores. Tarik Cohen went 12-for-80, and Kendall Wrong caught 10-of-11 target for 107 yards. Even Mitchell Trubisky looked good with 8.5 YPA, one TD and no picks. Trubisky also ran for a touchdown.
• The Colts-Bills was a hilarious game. Not only because of the snow, but because the Bills punted the ball to the Colts with four minutes left in overtime, and the Colts punted it back (on 4th-and-6) with two minutes left. The Colts were 3-9 and playing for the tie!
Moreover, Chuck Pagano didn't try to advance the ball at the end of regulation, instead settling for a 43-yard FG attempt, right after Adam Vinatieri had made a PAT with a kick that barely hooked in through the uprights! Ben McAdoo was a horrible coach, but Pagano makes him look like Isaac Newton.
• LeSean McCoy went 32-156-1, and his TD was the game winner. There were also 13 punts in the game.