As the calendar gets ready to flip to March (not yet, of course, so Happy Leap Day!) and the start of the season is officially less than one month away, it's crunch time for fantasy drafts. We've seen quite a number of mock drafts completed and the aggregate data has given us a pretty clear idea as to what round everyone is going in. Some of these numbers could get a little interesting over the next few weeks though, so if you haven't drafted yet, keep checking back here for changes in trends. One thing that you might notice though is that, for the most part, the majority of players have hit their ADP ceiling. There are far more players dropping in ADP than there are rising. Using fluctuations of 10|PERCENT| or more as the cutoff, here's a look at those that are still rising and the multitude of fallers.
Top Risers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Ryan Braun | 17.74 | 56.9|PERCENT| | 27.83 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 28.19 | 58.9|PERCENT| |
| Brett Myers | 228.45 | 33.5|PERCENT| | 305.03 | -6.1|PERCENT| | 286.42 | 25.4|PERCENT| |
| Chone Figgins | 282.28 | 2.9|PERCENT| | 290.55 | 16.4|PERCENT| | 338.12 | 19.8|PERCENT| |
| Antonio Bastardo | 278.15 | 19.0|PERCENT| | 330.88 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 331.91 | 19.3|PERCENT| |
| Danny Hultzen | 341.22 | -3.9|PERCENT| | 327.78 | 23.3|PERCENT| | 404.29 | 18.5|PERCENT| |
| Yorvit Torealba | 236.69 | 3.1|PERCENT| | 244.02 | 12.7|PERCENT| | 275.04 | 16.2|PERCENT| |
| A.J. Burnett | 236.38 | -4.6|PERCENT| | 225.61 | 21.0|PERCENT| | 272.98 | 15.5|PERCENT| |
| Raul Ibanez | 229.57 | -3.5|PERCENT| | 221.44 | 16.3|PERCENT| | 257.47 | 12.2|PERCENT| |
| Tyler Pastornicky | 264.70 | 17.2|PERCENT| | 310.20 | -4.3|PERCENT| | 296.76 | 12.1|PERCENT| |
| Wei-Yen Chen | 309.17 | 1.0|PERCENT| | 312.27 | 10.6|PERCENT| | 345.36 | 11.7|PERCENT| |
| Juan Abreu | 296.76 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 296.76 | 11.5|PERCENT| | 330.88 | 11.5|PERCENT| |
| Bronson Arroyo | 275.04 | 2.3|PERCENT| | 281.25 | 8.5|PERCENT| | 305.03 | 10.9|PERCENT| |
Well, what ADP trend report discussion would be complete without the tri-weekly Ryan Braun update? As expected, still climbing and probably won't stop until his ADP is atleast in the top 5. It was 20.63 just two days ago and today has jumped to 17.74 and is now up 58.9|PERCENT| over the last two weeks. As he climbs, expect to see the majority of the top 20 start to decline due to his return to the top of the heap.
It's been a good week if you're Brett Myers and you care about how you are viewed in the fantasy community. Though his overall increase is 25.4|PERCENT| for two weeks, he's actually jumped 5.4|PERCENT| for two weeks, he's actually jumped 33.5|PERCENT| in just the past week with news coming that Brad Mills is using him as the Astros closer this year…atleast to start the season. Still holding out hope that the David Carpentersleeper pick isn't a total bust now.
Chone Figgins is still trending upwards though things have died down a little over the past week. Just up 2.9|PERCENT| this past week after a 16.4|PERCENT| jump the week before. Perhaps fewer people are believing that his return to the leadoff spot is going to prove successful which might be the way to lean right now anyway.
As the next in line for saves in Philadelphia, along with the opportunity to collect holds for those that use that category, Antonio Bastardo is climbing up the rankings these days. A 19.3|PERCENT| jump (19.0|PERCENT| in just the past week) is putting him into that 23rd round area where most of the closer handcuffs tend to go. Of course, it could just be that everyone wants to own a guy whose name is "Tony Bastard".
Danny Hultzen is starting to become a little more well known as evidenced by his 18.5|PERCENT| increase over the last two weeks. It seems that the Mariners are going to give the soon-to-be 22 year old southpaw a shot at cracking the rotation this spring. Hultzen had a great showing in the Arizona Fall League posting a 1.40 ERA and a 18/5 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings and is definitely a prospect to watch even if he doesn't start the season with the big club.
It's interesting to see Tyler Pastornicky climbing the ranks finally. After weeks of anonymity the Braves shortstop is seeing a little more draft love, although it's hard to see him reciprocating with his production this year. He's low-end material in both deep, mixed leagues and NL-only right now still.
We've, pretty much, covered the rest of the risers here, save for Juan Abreu whose 11.5|PERCENT| increase seems a little premature. He was just added to the 40 man roster, but doesn't project as anything more than just a run-of-the-mill middle reliever.
So let's get to the fallers….
Top Fallers
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Dillon Gee | 427.04 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 427.04 | -48.2|PERCENT| | 221.28 | -48.2|PERCENT| |
| Kris Medlen | 447.72 | -32.3|PERCENT| | 302.96 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 293.66 | -34.4|PERCENT| |
| Fautino De Los Santos | 451.86 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 451.86 | -37.8|PERCENT| | 281.25 | -37.8|PERCENT| |
| Brad Lidge | 328.81 | -18.6|PERCENT| | 267.81 | -16.6|PERCENT| | 223.34 | -32.1|PERCENT| |
| Jesus Guzman | 358.80 | -7.8|PERCENT| | 330.88 | -22.8|PERCENT| | 255.40 | -28.8|PERCENT| |
| Shelby Miller | 296.76 | -16.0|PERCENT| | 249.19 | -11.7|PERCENT| | 220.11 | -25.8|PERCENT| |
| Trevor Bauer | 399.12 | -24.1|PERCENT| | 302.96 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 302.96 | -24.1|PERCENT| |
| Jeff Niemann | 310.20 | -10.7|PERCENT| | 277.11 | -14.6|PERCENT| | 236.79 | -23.7|PERCENT| |
| Bartolo Colon | 341.22 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 331.91 | -21.2|PERCENT| | 261.60 | -23.3|PERCENT| |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 286.42 | -17.0|PERCENT| | 237.82 | -6.9|PERCENT| | 221.31 | -22.7|PERCENT| |
| Koji Uehara | 314.34 | -5.3|PERCENT| | 297.79 | -18.4|PERCENT| | 242.99 | -22.7|PERCENT| |
| Jacob Turner | 347.42 | -9.5|PERCENT| | 314.34 | -13.5|PERCENT| | 271.94 | -21.7|PERCENT| |
| Eric Thames | 276.08 | 2.6|PERCENT| | 283.32 | -23.2|PERCENT| | 217.64 | -21.2|PERCENT| |
| Travis Hafner | 322.61 | -13.8|PERCENT| | 278.15 | -8.2|PERCENT| | 255.40 | -20.8|PERCENT| |
| Drew Pomeranz | 299.86 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 292.62 | -18.0|PERCENT| | 239.89 | -20.0|PERCENT| |
| Guillermo Moscoso | 326.74 | -13.0|PERCENT| | 284.35 | -8.0|PERCENT| | 261.60 | -19.9|PERCENT| |
| Ryan Theriot | 340.19 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 332.95 | -18.0|PERCENT| | 272.98 | -19.8|PERCENT| |
| Mike Aviles | 293.66 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 292.62 | -19.4|PERCENT| | 235.75 | -19.7|PERCENT| |
| David DeJesus | 346.39 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 342.25 | -18.7|PERCENT| | 278.15 | -19.7|PERCENT| |
| Casey Kotchman | 323.64 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 323.64 | -18.8|PERCENT| | 262.64 | -18.8|PERCENT| |
| Wilin Rosario | 349.49 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 349.49 | -18.6|PERCENT| | 284.35 | -18.6|PERCENT| |
| Jerry Sands | 304.00 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 304.00 | -16.3|PERCENT| | 254.36 | -16.4|PERCENT| |
| Brent Lillibridge | 365.00 | 12.7|PERCENT| | 411.53 | -24.6|PERCENT| | 310.20 | -15.0|PERCENT| |
| Josh Tomlin | 360.87 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 361.90 | -15.1|PERCENT| | 307.10 | -14.9|PERCENT| |
| Joel Peralta | 302.96 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 297.79 | -12.5|PERCENT| | 260.57 | -14.0|PERCENT| |
| Johnny Giavotella | 309.17 | -12.7|PERCENT| | 269.87 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 266.77 | -13.7|PERCENT| |
| Leonys Martin | 405.33 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 405.33 | -13.5|PERCENT| | 350.53 | -13.5|PERCENT| |
| Miguel Tejada | 309.17 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 309.17 | -12.7|PERCENT| | 269.87 | -12.7|PERCENT| |
| Andres Torres | 316.40 | -10.8|PERCENT| | 282.28 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 276.08 | -12.7|PERCENT| |
| Todd Helton | 252.30 | -11.1|PERCENT| | 224.30 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 220.51 | -12.6|PERCENT| |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2.88 | 10.4|PERCENT| | 2.58 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 2.52 | -12.5|PERCENT| |
| Kyle Lohse | 263.67 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 257.47 | -10.4|PERCENT| | 230.58 | -12.5|PERCENT| |
| Cody Ross | 280.21 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 280.21 | -12.5|PERCENT| | 245.06 | -12.5|PERCENT| |
| Chris Capuano | 322.61 | -12.2|PERCENT| | 283.32 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 283.32 | -12.2|PERCENT| |
| Bruce Chen | 397.06 | -10.2|PERCENT| | 356.73 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 349.49 | -12.0|PERCENT| |
| David Murphy | 269.87 | -10.0|PERCENT| | 242.99 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 237.82 | -11.9|PERCENT| |
| Mike Carp | 259.53 | 1.6|PERCENT| | 263.67 | -12.2|PERCENT| | 231.62 | -10.8|PERCENT| |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 337.08 | -10.1|PERCENT| | 302.96 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 300.89 | -10.7|PERCENT| |
| Nolan Reimold | 263.67 | -7.8|PERCENT| | 242.99 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 235.75 | -10.6|PERCENT| |
| Jarrod Parker | 305.03 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 296.76 | -7.7|PERCENT| | 274.01 | -10.2|PERCENT| |
| Marlon Byrd | 326.74 | -7.9|PERCENT| | 300.89 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 293.66 | -10.1|PERCENT| |
That's some list, huh? We're not going to cover them all, but it's interesting to note just how many players are falling out of favor with fantasy owners right now. There's not a single name on this Fallers list that should surprise you, but some will likely tick back up, so keep them on your radar.
Two players that will most definitely start climbing the ranks again are Wilin Roasrio (-18.8) and Johnny Giavotella (-13.7|PERCENT|). Rosario will play back-up to Ramon Hernandez, but it's just a matter of time before he takes over for the aging veteran with no power. Right now, the relationship is still in the mentoring phase and Rosario still has much to learn. Giavotella, on the other hand, should see an increase fairly soon. Royals manager Ned Yost has confirmed that Giavotella has the edge over Chris Getz for the second base job, so with a strong spring, he'll start to climb again.
Dillon Gee has taken the biggest hit over the past two weeks (-48.2|PERCENT|) without there really being any new news on him. He's competing for the 5th starter's job on the Mets, so perhaps people are of the mindset that he doesn't make the cut. He doesn't post much in the way of strikeouts, has seen his walk rate increase with his time spent in the majors, and generally has just mediocre stuff. He might make for a decent plug and play candidate down the road if the matchup is right, but beyond that, you can do better.
It seems the luster has worn off on Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller who took a 25.8|PERCENT| drop these past two weeks. The door was supposedly open for him to compete for a rotation spot, but apparently that's dependent on the performance of Jake Westbrook. While Miller has excelled in the minors thus far, he hasn't pitched above Double-A yet and may need a bit more seasoning. However, you'll want to track his progress, because, from a stuff standpoint, he's rock solid. He just needs a little bit more time.
Check the differences between ADP from one week ago and two weeks ago for a number of players. The overall indicates a significant drop, but there are a number of players – Casey Kotchman, Jerry Sands, Cody Ross and Mike Aviles, to name a few – who are leveling off after their sharp decline. Their ADPs likely won't change very much barring some major breaking news.
On the decline due to position battles includes Jesus Guzman (-28,8|PERCENT|) and Eric Thames (-21.2|PERCENT|). Guzman is battling Yonder Alonso for the first base job, and with the Padres acquisition of Carlos Quentin, it's not like they can just throw Guzman into the outfield if/when Alonso makes it. He would likely fall back to bench duty which will keep his rank down. Thames is fighting for the left field spot in Toronto and has Travis Snider, Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis to fight off. Once the heavy favorite, Thames could still find himself down in the minors or dealt to another team before the season even begins.
And finally, let's just clear up this Miguel Tejada nonsense. He has not signed with another team nor has he announced his retirement. Therefore, he is still in the system here at MDC and his overall rank is based on last year's production. Obviously not a high rank at all. But the reason that he continues to show up on the trend report is not because people are drafting him with the hope that he'll land on his feet somewhere, but once people go to auto-draft in the later rounds, he is selected based on his rank. You can feel free to ignore him completely.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.