The RotoWire Blog has been retired.

These archives exist as a way for people to continue to view the content that had been posted on the blog over the years.

Articles will no longer be posted here, but you can view new fantasy articles from our writers on the main site.

Moving The Needle

SwStr|PERCENT| is the percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses. Like BABIP, this statistic is more important when it comes to pitchers than hitters. The league average is typically around 8.5|PERCENT|. All information is courtesy of Fangraphs.

Jonathan Papelbon: Among pitchers who tossed at least 60.0 innings last year, Papelbon easily led major league baseball with a 16.8 SwStr|PERCENT|. He blew a save with Boston's season on the line during the last game of the year, but Papelbon's 8.7 K/BB ratio was by far the best among full-time closers. In fact, he posted a 36:2 K/BB ratio with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP after the All-Star break, all while pitching in a hitters' park and in by far the toughest division in baseball. There's a strong argument the Phillies overpaid for him during the offseason, especially when you consider what Ryan Madson cost, but there's also a legitimate argument Papelbon should be atop fantasy draft boards when it comes to closers in 2012. After all, he induced more swing-and-misses last year than Kenley Jansen, who just set an MLB record for K/9, and Papelbon is now moving from the A.L. East to the National League.

Chris Perez: Perez was a prized prospect who seemingly put it all together in 2010. Finally given an opportunity to close, he posted a 1.71 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while recording 23 saves. While it was no surprise he got the job done pitching in the often easy role in the ninth inning during the first half 2011, when he blew just one save over 22 opportunities, it came as no shock his poor peripherals (22:15 K:BB ratio over 33.1 innings) caught up to him in a big way after the All-Star break. Perez's control has always been shaky, so his sharp decline in K rate from 2010 (8.71) to last year (5.88) is especially concerning. Perez had a .234 BABIP last season, and while relievers typically have lower hit rates than starters, that's still extreme, as was his 5.7 HR/FB|PERCENT|. It's possible his ability to induce weak contact is a skill, but Perez's 5.6  SwStr|PERCENT| was the fourth-lowest among all relievers in baseball last year, so he was someone to be heavily worried about even before his recent oblique strain. Meanwhile, teammate Vinnie Pestano posted the third-highest SwStr|PERCENT| (16.3) among all pitchers last year, so Perez has some serious competition to take over Cleveland's closer role.

Michael Pineda: There's a lot to like about Pineda, but while he'll get more run support as a Yankee, as an extreme flyball pitcher - his 44.8 FB|PERCENT| last year was sixth-highest in MLB - a move from Safeco Park to Yankee Stadium will likely hurt his ERA. Pineda's ERA jumped from 3.03 before the All-Star break to 5.12 afterward last year, but his K:BB ratio actually improved during that span, so while tiring out was the biggest excuse, it appears luck was equally the culprit, unless you believe his ability to prevent flyballs turning into home runs decreased badly over that stretch. Pineda is an almost exclusive fastball/slider pitcher with a weak/still developing changeup, making him vulnerable to lefties, but he faced more LHB than RHB last season, and he actually walked and allowed fewer homers against them compared to righties. More importantly, Pineda led all starters with an 11.8 SwStr|PERCENT| last season as a 22-year-old rookie who generally wasn't even considered ready to open the year in the big leagues. The move to New York likely hurts his fantasy value, but Pineda is still being undervalued considering his extremely impressive ability to miss bats.

Ubaldo Jimenez: Jimenez was rightfully one of the first pitchers off the board in fantasy leagues last year, as it appeared just a modest improvement in control could result in a Cy Young type campaign. Instead, the opposite occurred. While his K and BB rates actually remained nearly identical from his 2010 season last year, Jimenez's ERA jumped from 2.88 to 4.68. Maybe that was all due to luck, but it's worth noting his average fastball velocity dropped from 96.1 mph to 93.5. That's significant enough not to just write off his problems with BABIP and LOB|PERCENT| as poor fortune. The move out of Coors Field helps, and the fact he was able to succeed there suggests there's upside no matter where he pitches, but a transition to the American League limits his upgraded environment. I'm on board with buying a player low, but unless Jimenez's previous velocity returns, there's real concern here, as only 22 pitchers had a lower SwStr|PERCENT| among all starters last season.