If there's one thing you can say about outfield ADP, it's that consistency seems to play a rather important role. With 840 qualifying drafts reporting, it is very interesting to see the lack of major fluctuations in the ADP trends, especially in the top 50. We've discussed how fluctuations between 10.0|PERCENT| and -10.0|PERCENT| translate to just a couple of picks, so to see a deviation of 3.7|PERCENT| be the highest amongst the top 50 outfielders, it should be telling you that the order in which you see below, is more or less the order your outfielders will go in. Sure, there's a flip here and there depending on personal preference, but for the most part, this order stays pretty consistent.
Top 50 Outfielders
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Matt Kemp | 1.67 | 6.6|PERCENT| | 1.78 | -3.9|PERCENT| | 1.71 | 2.4|PERCENT| |
| Jose Bautista | 4.33 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 4.38 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 4.34 | 0.2|PERCENT| |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 8.80 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 8.90 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 8.72 | -0.9|PERCENT| |
| Justin Upton | 9.02 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 8.94 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 8.81 | -2.3|PERCENT| |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 13.98 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 14.05 | 1.9|PERCENT| | 14.31 | 2.4|PERCENT| |
| Curtis Granderson | 19.26 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 19.40 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 19.32 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| Mike Stanton | 22.88 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 22.60 | 3.0|PERCENT| | 23.28 | 1.7|PERCENT| |
| Andrew McCutchen | 26.28 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 26.58 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 26.45 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| Ryan Braun | 28.25 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 28.15 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 28.01 | -0.8|PERCENT| |
| Josh Hamilton | 31.50 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 30.83 | -1.6|PERCENT| | 30.35 | -3.7|PERCENT| |
| Matt Holliday | 37.58 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 37.89 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 38.12 | 1.4|PERCENT| |
| Carl Crawford | 40.17 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 40.62 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 39.77 | -1.0|PERCENT| |
| Jay Bruce | 40.59 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 40.81 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 40.63 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| Hunter Pence | 44.66 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 44.64 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 44.58 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Nelson Cruz | 49.44 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 49.85 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 49.29 | -0.3|PERCENT| |
| Desmond Jennings | 56.18 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 56.16 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 55.92 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| Michael Bourn | 56.53 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 56.96 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 57.71 | 2.1|PERCENT| |
| Alex Gordon | 61.66 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 61.75 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 62.03 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 64.83 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 65.30 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 65.44 | 0.9|PERCENT| |
| B.J. Upton | 67.76 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 67.34 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 67.35 | -0.6|PERCENT| |
| Shane Victorino | 75.33 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 75.49 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 74.95 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| Adam Jones | 75.48 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 75.36 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 74.87 | -0.8|PERCENT| |
| Drew Stubbs | 81.14 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 81.40 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 80.62 | -0.6|PERCENT| |
| Corey Hart | 90.60 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 90.72 | -1.3|PERCENT| | 89.54 | -1.2|PERCENT| |
| Lance Berkman | 91.26 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 90.69 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 91.75 | 0.5|PERCENT| |
| Brett Gardner | 94.93 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 94.94 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 94.53 | -0.4|PERCENT| |
| Michael Cuddyer | 95.52 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 95.53 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 96.57 | 1.1|PERCENT| |
| Jayson Werth | 99.08 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 99.85 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 99.34 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| Cameron Maybin | 103.70 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 102.91 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 101.42 | -2.2|PERCENT| |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 104.22 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 105.05 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 105.15 | 0.9|PERCENT| |
| Jason Heyward | 106.06 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 107.45 | 1.1|PERCENT| | 108.66 | 2.5|PERCENT| |
| Nick Swisher | 123.40 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 124.13 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 123.55 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| Nick Markakis | 124.85 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 125.77 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 126.37 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
| Chris Young | 125.13 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 125.13 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 124.68 | -0.4|PERCENT| |
| Peter Bourjos | 135.23 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 135.45 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 134.79 | -0.3|PERCENT| |
| Andre Ethier | 135.42 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 134.31 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 133.12 | -1.7|PERCENT| |
| Carlos Beltran | 140.57 | -1.8|PERCENT| | 137.97 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 137.02 | -2.5|PERCENT| |
| Logan Morrison | 150.40 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 149.11 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 149.66 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| Matt Joyce | 154.77 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 155.45 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 154.93 | 0.1|PERCENT| |
| Coco Crisp | 155.70 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 156.27 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 156.29 | 0.4|PERCENT| |
| Angel Pagan | 170.33 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 170.83 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 171.35 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| Melky Cabrera | 173.08 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 173.16 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 172.67 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Austin Jackson | 173.56 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 173.65 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 174.55 | 0.6|PERCENT| |
| Torii Hunter | 177.89 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 177.99 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 177.12 | -0.4|PERCENT| |
| Jeff Francoeur | 187.55 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 187.13 | 1.5|PERCENT| | 189.96 | 1.3|PERCENT| |
| Martin Prado | 189.46 | 1.3|PERCENT| | 191.87 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 190.45 | 0.5|PERCENT| |
| Juan Pierre | 190.42 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 191.29 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 191.05 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| Carlos Lee | 190.56 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 191.30 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 190.19 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Josh Willingham | 193.51 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 194.26 | 0.8|PERCENT| | 195.90 | 1.2|PERCENT| |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 194.47 | 0.4|PERCENT| | 195.26 | 0.3|PERCENT| | 195.89 | 0.7|PERCENT| |
A number of other things can be taken away from this trend report. First and foremost is that your top 50 outfielders should all be gone by the end of the 16th round in your standard 12-team, 5x5 mixed leagues that require five to six outfielders for your starting roster. Given the fact that just over 26.0|PERCENT| of the players taken in the first 16 rounds are outfielders, it might make sense to consider the position a thin one and treat is accordingly. Obviously it's not thinner than shortstop or second base, but with so many outfielders qualifying (and being of better use in fantasy) at other positions, it tends to thin out rather quickly when you need so many.
Another thing that you should notice is that while your outfielders are coming off the board in groups every round or so, there aren't very noticeable runs that will alert you like you see in so many other positions. You'll notice one around the fourth round when the top 10 are off the board, but they just steadily peel off until you see another noticeable run around the eighth round when you start getting out of the top 25. Just pay attention to the depth of the position as you'll turn around and suddenly notice the choices in front of you aren't as glamorous as you'd like.
Maybe the buzz died down for a little while regarding Matt Kemp and his proclamation to go 50-50 this season, but it's definitely picked back up in the past week. Over the last seven days, Kemp has solidified his place atop the ADP rankings with a 6.6|PERCENT| increase. In relative terms, his 1.67 ADP rank has moved significantly ahead ofMiguel Cabrera's who is holding strong at 2.50 right now. The question that remains, though, is whether or not he would continue to hold off Cabrera if he [Cabrera] had 3B eligibility right now in most leagues. Hmmmm.
Though Mike Stanton's net ADP increase is just 1.7|PERCENT| over the last two weeks, including a decrease of 1.2|PERCENT| over the last seven days, he has turned into quite a hot commodity in drafts this season. The power is certainly for real and it looks as if no one is paying any mind to strikeouts or batting average so long as the home runs keep coming. He's pushed his way in to the top 10 but it might take a little more favoritism for him to pass Curtis Granderson, who is also still trending upwards (0.3|PERCENT|) on the list.
It's really comes as no surprise that Josh Hamilton is the one guys with the biggest downward trend (-3.7|PERCENT|) right now. True, it's not a huge decrease, but while the story of his return to alcohol and the potential hazards which come from falling off the wagon persist, he is going to be considered more of a cautionary tale heading into the season. Couple that with how injury prone he is, and that downward trend could continue a little further.
No one is scared of Ryan Braun's potential 50-game suspension and no one is scared that Carl Crawford is likely to miss the first month of the season after wrist surgery. Surprising? Definitely. Granted, if Braun gets clipped for 50 games, he could still come back in June and put up better numbers than most other outfielders, but after Crawford's nosedive last year and what wrist surgery usually means for a hitter – minor procedure or no – it is a wonder that his ADP hasn't dropped further. He had no power and minimal stolen bases in 2011. Just because Bobby V is now running the show doesn't mean that Crawford will return to the days of old when he was with the Rays.
With reports of him revamping his swing and getting back to where he was when he first arrived in Atlanta, Jason Heyward is starting to trend upwards (2.5|PERCENT|) and will likely continue the trend. Given his age and his raw talent, he's likely a steal where he is right now at 106.06 (late 8th/early 9th round), so if more positive reports continue, you should expect him to crack the top 100.
Just cracking the top 50 and likely headed higher is 26-year old, Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes. For those that haven't heard the news, while the Marlins were thought to be the likely destination for the slugger, the A's swooped in with a 4-year, $36M offer and signed him today. The A's may have a glut of outfielders, but if Cespedes is the real deal, and from the looks of it, he is, the team will have no problem benching the likes of Josh Reddick and Chris Cowgill in favor of his power potential. Before he signed he was going in the 16th round (194.47) and was trending upwards by 0.7|PERCENT| over the last two weeks. Now that he's officially with a club who looks like they're going to get him out there ASAP, he'll start trending upwards a little more.
Key Outfielder Trends Below the Top 50
Eric Thames, TOR (ADP – 215.93; +32.6|PERCENT|) – The Jays have a bit of a logjam in left field and Thames will be given the chance to win the job by competing with Travis Snider, Rajai Davis, and Ben Francisco. Given past performances, Thames could be the favorite, but we won't know until spring training is in full swing.
Bryan LaHair, CHC (ADP – 223.71; +17.9|PERCENT|) – We first noticed LaHair's movement when covering the first basemen, but since he really only qualifies in the outfield right now, let's keep a watch on him. The Cubs fully intend on using Anthony Rizzo as their first baseman of the future, but given the way he performed in his call-up last year, he'll probably start the season in Triple-A with LaHair starting at first. But the club is also trying to move either Alfonso Soriano or Marlon Byrd, and when they do, they will bring Rizzo up and move LaHair to the outfield. He could be a nice sleeper to watch as he would have dual-position eligibility.
Cody Ross, BOS (ADP – 236.79; +13.1|PERCENT|) – Originally slated for a platoon with Ryan Sweeney in right field, Ross is gaining steam in drafts now that Crawford is likely to miss the first month of the season. Ross should have solid up-front value to start the season and if he can come out of the gate hot, stands a chance to get the bulk of playing time in right once Crawford returns.
John Jay, STL (ADP – 242.99; +28.1|PERCENT|) – A few things have happened in St. Louis that went in Jay's favor and now it is showing in fantasy drafts. Knee surgery for Allen Craig and the endorsement by GM John Mozeliak have Jay landing on people's radar this year as a late round steal. The centerfield job should be his and his alone and he should be able to post decent, not overwhelming, numbers.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.