Let's start with last week's results:
College hoops – Houston + 8.5 – loss. Don't even ask what the final score was…
NFL:
SF + 3.5 – win. This was the game I liked the best and I even suggested sprinkling something on the money line. One of the better fourth quarter's I've even seen in a football game, period.
NE – 13.5 – win. Denver has to be the enigma in Vegas. If you bet the money line dog in every Broncos game after Tebow took over until now, you're probably happy you did. I really think this score had a lot to do with what I consider an inflated line for the Patriots game this week.
Baltimore – 7.5 – loss. Early on this looked like a good wager before Arian Foster decided he needed to prove he was better than the first time these two teams met. There isn't a doubt in my mind that had Matt Schaub stayed healthy, the Texans would have been the team to beat in the AFC. With a healthy Schaub and Andre Johnson, does Houston or Indianapolis win that division next year?
Green Bay – 7.5 – loss. Given the way the Giants have played sans the Washington hiccup, this shouldn't have been a total surprise. Given that they're healthy now and looking back at their four-game losing streak during the middle of season there isn't a doubt in my mind they belong in the NFC Championship game. Who were the four losses in the middle of the season? @SF, PHI, @NO and GB. Not what I would call an easy schedule and outside of the New Orleans game the other three were decided by a touchdown or less.
Onto this week's picks:
College hoops – Notre Dame + 8.5. Yes, I know they're playing the #1 team in Syracuse. The Orange have won 20 straight while Notre Dame has lost their last two games by 14 (UConn) and 7 (Rutgers) which means I would have put this spread in the double-digits at least. Of course, I then say back the Irish who are home. And not even a sprinkle but a smidge of a sprinkle on the money line (+350).
NFL:
Baltimore +7. Here's the thing. As I stated above, I would have put this spread at 5 or 6, definitely not above a touchdown which is where the spread started out. Obviously, we'll likely see a heavy does of Ray Rice but I think the difference in the game could be the long ball. Look for Torrey Smith to get open deep at least once and catch a long TD pass or get a PI call. The Ravens defense is going to have to get to Brady by using Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata while figuring out a way to cover the two tight ends of the Patriots. I think the Ravens keep this close but Brady figures out a way to win and advance to the big game.
Torrey Smith - Over 49.5 receiving yards. I think between the Patriots respecting the run, the speed of Smith vs. the Pats secondary and the absence of Andre Carter, Flacco should get plenty of time for a deep pattern to develop with Smith. Just a hunch here; Smith has surpassed the 49-yard receiving mark once in his last seven games.
NY Giants +2. I'm tempted to just take the money line (+105) but I think the two points could possibly mean something in what should be a close game. Alex Smith may quickly go from hero to goat if he doesn't adjust from a team constantly blitzing him to a team who can get to him rushing only four and dropping seven. If I'm the Giants, I double Michael Crabtree (be prepared to jump that slant he kept dropping last week) and Vernon Davis and make Kyle Williams and Brett Swain beat me. Of course, if the weather is terrible and the 49ers can get Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter going they'll have an excellent chance to win this game.
Enjoy the games tomorrow, for us on the east coast, it's going to be a long morning…
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