While the procrastinator in me is partially to blame, I finally finished the outlooks for the Tampa Bay Rays last week. We all know their story; they're a low budget team who builds up on prospects via the trade and draft and by doing such is able to compete with big-budget teams like the Yankees and Red Sox. In fact, on the last day of the regular season, they eliminated the Red Sox minutes after the Orioles rallied to beat Boston (or as the Yankee fan in me likes to remember it, Papelbon FAILED), marking one of the more miraculous end-of-season runs. Either way, the Rays remain one of the more interesting teams in the league since they have a low payroll yet a ton of talent. With a few more savvy moves, you might want to watch out for the Rays going forward.
I totally expect the Rays to compete again, not only for the Wild Card but for the division. Here's why:
Evan Longoria – First off, I love the guy as far as ceiling – I've written before he has an MVP-caliber season that will happen at some point. However, Longo wasn't living up to that type of hype over the first part of the season and then Tweeted one night that he was wine tasting before a game (7/30/11). That didn't sit well with me and I responded with this blog:
https://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Screw-you-Kevin-Payne-BBD3200.htm
I even entitled it "Screw you Kevin Payne". It's not the first time I've heard that (or, sigh, the last) but I thought writing about the aftermath was interesting. My Tweet must have worked because Evan turned in what was probably the best two final months of the season by any player in 2011. While I'd like to believe I had something to do with that, the truth is he was completely healthy after dealing with a side/oblique injury earlier in the season. Here is part of what I wrote about him for next season:
"Longoria's strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season while his walk rate increased by three percent. This improved plate discipline didn't cost him any power as his 1HR/18.5 plate appearances was the best mark of his career. His production improved as the season went on, culminating in some gaudy stats over the season's final two months. Longoria finished those two months with 17 home runs, 46 RBI and a 37:37 K:BB rate over 203 at-bats. His .244 batting average can be explained as being unlucky when considering his .239 BABIP was a career-low by 70 points. The only disappointment for fantasy owners was the stolen base total which was down from 15 in 2010 to only three in 2011."
I won't pro-rate those last two months stats since they're unsustainable but it speaks to what he can do. If Longoria falls in your drafts, he's a must-grab. Remember Desmond Jennings and Ben Zobrist will both be hitting in front of him to help pad the RBI stat.
Onto someone I'd throw a red flag up on: Jeremy Hellickson.
First off, I've touted Hellickson for the last two years as most have. He's not a fireball pitcher with a big arm but relies on his control and secondary pitches to give him a ceiling of being a Greg Maddux-lite. After looking at his numbers, however, his 2011 seemed to be a little smoke and mirrors. Here's why:
"He finished the season with a 2.95 ERA with a 1.153 WHIP to go along with a 13-10 record. Hellickson doesn't have overpowering stuff but uses solid command to locate his low-90s fastball and also throws a plus-changeup and curve. While the ERA and WHIP were excellent, there were a few minor red flags to his award-winning season. His .223 BABIP suggests he was somewhat lucky and his 5.57 K/9IP and 3.43 BB/9IP aren't numbers you usually see coincide with a 2.95 ERA. This isn't to say he's not an extremely talented pitcher; just realize a sub-3.00 ERA is not in the cards again."
Obviously Hellickson still has a lot of upside and the kid certainly has an outstanding pedigree. The K/9IP rate will likely improve as will the BB/9IP but how much and when are still to be determined. The benefit Hellickson will have is being towards the back of the rotation without the pressure of being a #1 or #2. He's going to have a solid season but as I already said, it's doubtful he replicates 2011's ERA and WHIP numbers.
If you're drafting in a one-year only (re-draft) league, it's a no-brainer to me to take Matt Moore before Jeremy Hellickson. Don't listen to Andrew Friedman; Moore will be part of the rotation from the get-go and draft him accordingly.
Need a minor league prospect to throw on your team? Tim Beckham is your man.
The Rays have done little in the offseason in the way in seeking out a legit option at shortstop. They've come to peace with the fact that they will let Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac battle it out for the starting spot in the spring. For fantasy purposes it's an easy call to recommend S-Rod over Brignac given the difference in what each can do at the plate. If he wins the starting spot, a 10-10 season out of S-Rod is the floor and the ceiling is pretty high with 500+ at-bats. The reason the Rays haven't gone after a shortstop through free agency is partially due to Beckham. While many have written him off, he took some strides last season at Double-A Montgomery. Here's a portion of what I wrote about him:
"It's easy to write Beckham off after a couple of disappointing seasons in the low minors after being the No.1 overall pick in the 2008 draft. However, he held his own at Double-A Montgomery sporting a .275 batting with seven home runs and 15 stolen bases. He'll likely begin the year at Triple-A Durham with an eye on the big club for 2013 but could make a push as soon as this season given the Rays shortstop options if he is able to produce at the plate. Given his age (22), there's still a lot of optimism that Beckham can develop into an everyday Major League player."
The Rays likely would have had to sign a "Major League-ready" shortstop to a multi-year deal which would have blocked Beckham, showing the organization is planning on him (with continued development) being a regular in the near future. As I already mentioned, there's an outside chance that if the Rays don't get a ton of production out of Rodriguez or Brignac, we could see a hot-starting Beckham as soon as July/August. The more likely scenario is that he's up with the club later this season if he continues to develop at Durham. Again, stash him on your minor league team with a later pick; remember he's a former number one overall pick.
There's currently a poll going on through the St. Petersburg Times as to which pitcher the Rays should trade right now and the leader is…David Price?!?! Huh? Let me tell you who should be on the trading block right now: James Shields.
Notice I said "on the trading block" and not "needs to be dealt." If you believe in "selling high" on a player, right now Shields has the most value he'll ever have. After his career-best season it was an easy call for the Rays to pick up his option for 2012 but it's hard to envision another season close to what he did in 2011. Again, here's another excerpt of what I wrote for his outlook:
"2011 will likely go down as the greatest season in Shields' career. The righty put together career-best numbers across the board, including 16 wins, 225 strikeouts, a 2.28 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP. His 11 complete games were the best in baseball by three games (over Roy Halladay) and his four shutouts tied him for second behind Cliff Lee. Shields' has also developed arguably the best move to first base finishing with a league-high 12 pickoffs and allowed only one stolen base (if I remember correctly). His body of work saw him finish third in the American League Cy Young voting, finishing behind only Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver. Shields was supported by a career-low .258 BABIP, a stark contrast from his .341 mark in 2010 suggesting instead of being unlucky, perhaps a little luck was on his side. A little luck that is, and some adjustments to his pitch selection. Shields got away from his low-90s fastball, throwing it 10 percent less of the time and relying more on two of his secondary pitches - his changeup and curve - more often. The use of these pitches in combination with his pickoff move led to a career-high 79.6 percent strand rate. Shields' cured his gopheritis allowing eight fewer home runs from the previous season despite throwing an extra 46 innings. This was supported by raising his ground ball rate by five percent while lowering his fly ball rate by three percent."
As you can see, Shields had an unbelievable season that was somewhat overshadowed by Justin Verlander's. I just can't see Shields putting up those stats again and given the Rays lack of a first baseman or designated hitter, I'd see what the market can bring. The Rays have glut of starting pitching and while Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis are being dangled at bait, Shields can fetch at least double the price while addressing said problem. Maybe they are behind the scenes but the Rays need to see if the market will pay full price for the 2011 Shields.
My whole criticism of the Rays is that while they have been able to compete and make it to the World Series, they don't have a banner. Winning is fun but as we always say around here, "banners fly forever." I think the Rays will have a good chance to shut me up over the next few years with the nucleus they've put together. Let's see if they can.