He's having a season most quarterbacks can only dream about. Not only is he putting up Madden Game-esque numbers, but his team is attempting to make history. He's playing the position as well as anyone has ever played it before. He is beloved by his team's fans and already is the proud owner of one Super Bowl championship.
When it comes to the 2012 NFL season, few players can match Aaron Rodgers.
From a fantasy perspective, it's likely many (and perhaps most) Rodgers owners are in a strong position for a playoff berth. His consistent level of production has been off the charts since the season began and shows no signs of slowing down.
All of that begs the question - should Aaron Rodgers be fantasy football's No. 1 overall pick in 2012?
Given how good Rodgers is and how potent the Packers' offense projects to remain going forward, it's quite possible many fantasy owners will target the Green Bay quarterback with the first pick in their 2012 drafts.
The numbers definitely justify that belief. Rodgers is currently averaging 36.1 points per game in the National Fantasy Football Championship (which awards six points per touchdown pass). That is a little more than four points per game more than Drew Brees, currently ranked second, and 3.5 points per game higher than what Michael Vick averaged as the No. 1 per game scoring QB in the NFFC last season.
I lobbied hard for Rodgers being a Top 6-10 pick in the preseason but few NFFC owners appeared to be listening as his Average Draft Position was 14.13. In retrospect, he clearly should have gone much higher and likely will go higher in 2012. There definitely are strong reasons to view him in as a potential No. 1 pick.
Rodgers has topped 4,000 yards passing in two of his three seasons as a starter and will likely do so again this year. Since becoming a starter he has missed only one game due to injury so he's been very durable. Rodgers has thrown at least 28 touchdown passes every year he's been a starter and is on pace for a staggering 48 this season. He's also the only quarterback this season who has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game.
His home-road splits have also been extremely impressive. Check them out:
HOME
Completion|PERCENT|: 72.3|PERCENT|
Yards: 1,585
TDs: 17
Ints: 3
ROAD
Completion |PERCENT|: 71.4
Yards: 1,890
TDs: 16
INTs: 1
Want some more jaw-dropping numbers? His worst fantasy game in the NFFC this season came on Thanksgiving when he scored 27.25 points against the Lions. By means of comparison Brees has had four games worse than that. Tom Brady has had six.
All three are elite QBs, but Rodgers' floor is considerably higher. He's been the one fantasy player who's proven to be bulletproof. Unlike Superman, he has no Kryptonite. Every week, he puts up stud-like numbers, regardless of the opposition. There isn't another player at any other position who you can say that about - especially this season, which has seen a high level of chaos on a weekly basis.
Of course, just because Rodgers has been an uber-stud this season doesn't guarantee he'll put up similar production in 2012. But when you consider his talent plus the talent and youth around him in the passing game (only Donald Driver, who may retire after this season, is older than 28 among the top wide receivers and tight ends) and Mike McCarthy's expertise as a play caller, Rodgers not only looms as an incredibly productive fantasy option, but one of the safest you're going to find.
I believe the first round is all about getting elite production with minimal risk. No player in fantasy offers that combination in stronger fashion than Aaron Rodgers. Certainly, a lot can and will change between now and the start of the 2012 season. But for those looking ahead to the top pick in fantasy drafts, Rodgers is more than simply being worthy of consideration. He may be the best player you are going to get with that selection.
TK's HOT PICKS
Here are five sleeper picks for Week 13:
QB: Matt Moore (Mia.) - He's had three games of QB1 production in his last four and faces an Oakland pass defense that has allowed plenty of fantasy production of late. He's a strong sleeper pick this week.
RB: Mark Ingram (NO) - Ingram's healthy again and appears poised for a strong finish. The Lions will likely be without Ndamukong Suh, their best interior defender. That makes Ingram a worthy RB3 choice on Sunday night.
WR: Michael Crabtree (SF) - Alex Smith is still holding him back but Crabtree has quietly been a rock-solid WR3 in PPR leagues. This week, he faces an injury-ravaged Rams' secondary he torched for 122 yards and a TD late last season, giving Crabtree WR2 upside.
TE: Jacob Tamme (Ind.) - He came up small last week but the Colts will likely have to throw it a ton against New England and Tamme clicked very well with Dan Orlovsky in Week 10. If you need to dig deep, Tamme won't fall short two games in a row. I promise.
SD: San Diego - The Chargers' defense has been pathetic for nearly two months now but you can't ask for a better matchup this week. Jacksonville's offense (other than Maurice Jones-Drew) stinks and Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting QB in the league. They're impossible to trust but on paper, this is an outstanding matchup.
Tom Kessenich is the Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games for STATS LLC. Find out more about the NFFC at nffc.stats.com or email Tom at tkessenich@stats.com. Follow him on Twitter @TomKessenich.