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Last Minute ADP Trends for NFL Standard Leagues

Labor Day weekend was a big weekend for fantasy football as the NFFC completed the majority of its drafts and most of the home/work leagues that us regular folk have joined have come and gone.  However, there are still plenty of leagues that are waiting until the very last minute to draft before the season starts and if you're in one of them, then the ADP trend information you are getting is incredibly valuable in determining how long you can wait on certain players as well as which ones you may have to reach a little for if you truly covet them.  That's not always a recommended strategy, but it's your team and everyone likes to grab themselves a homer pick or two to ensure owning someone they love.  So with over 550 NFL Standard leagues reporting their drafts on Mock Draft Central, here's a list of the most notable ADP risers and fallers.

Risers

Overall Trend
6.Ray RiceRBBAL32.6|PERCENT|
102.Tim HightowerRBARI32.4|PERCENT|
140.Plaxico BurressWRNYJ24.0|PERCENT|
88.Julio JonesWRATL22.3|PERCENT|
119.Greg OlsenTECAR17.1|PERCENT|
240.Dexter McClusterWRKC14.7|PERCENT|
103.Reggie BushRBMIA14.4|PERCENT|
90.Roy WilliamsWRCHI14.3|PERCENT|
135.Lance MooreWRNO14.0|PERCENT|
163.Lee EvansWRBAL13.7|PERCENT|
37.Felix JonesRBDAL13.6|PERCENT|
13.Andre JohnsonWRHOU12.7|PERCENT|
177.Ben TateRBHOU12.7|PERCENT|
23.Larry FitzgeraldWRARI12.5|PERCENT|
33.Vincent JacksonWRSD11.8|PERCENT|
164.Willis McGaheeRBDEN10.7|PERCENT|

We've tracked the ascension of Ray Rice throughout the pre-season and this weekend was no different as he is now coming off the board around the 6th pick.  Some drafts, he's going as high as #2.  But while his rise has been the most notable because of the first round hype that comes with it, Tim Hightower's climb in the ADP rankings is even more eye-catching.  Ryan Torain, whom you'll notice in the Fallers section below, has been back at practice over the last week and a half, but Hightower has impressed enough here in the pre-season that he is maintaining a hold on the lead back position.  The best part, though, is that while his ADP rank has increased by 32.4|PERCENT|, he is still out of the top 100 which means that you'll be able to wait on him in your draft.  Using a 10th or 11th round pick on him might turn out to be a great move, especially if he gets enough touches to put him in line for numbers more representative of a 4th round selection.

Plaxico Burress could be another one of those sneaky late picks as he is starting to settle in around the 140th pick in most drafts.  He's been climbing steadily since he signed with the Jets, but had begun to level off a little in the last week.  To be able to grab a talent of potentially that magnitude, you could be sitting pretty with your wideouts.  He could even make for a better value pick that upstart Julio Jones who has been climbing up the ADP charts over the last month.  Jones will still be an active target for the Falcons, but he's now up around the 88th pick which is killing him as a sleeper this year.

One thing to note, while we're talking about Jones and the Falcons is that his presence has also seemingly dropped the value of Roddy White a bit.  Not much in the grand scheme of things and not worthy of listing under top risers/fallers, but enough to see Andre Johnson move ahead of him on the WR ADP lists.
 
It looks like Greg Olsen has finally leveled off an found a regular home in the rankings around the 119th pick where the back end of the Top 10 tight ends are going.  He had taken off in the rankings over the last few weeks, but actually dropped almost two percentage points this past week.  He is still going to be a valuable asset this season, but he's not going to ascend to the top 5, by any means.

Dexter McCluster is quickly rising up in the rankings with this outstanding pre-season he is having.  He is becoming targeted much more often in the passing attack and has also been lining up in the backfield as well.  Obviously with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones leading the rushing attack, McCluster will be used in more gimmicky run plays and reverses.  However, if he is becoming more of a favorite of Matt Cassel's in the passing game, then his value could be due for a nice increase, thus making him a quality late round pick.  He's coming off the board super late – around the 240th pick – but could out-produce plenty of mid-round selections if he's used as much during the regular season.

Reggie Bush is slowly becoming a favorite of Tony Sparano's in Miami and with no more Larry Johnson, his prospects for a productive season are gradually increasing.  He still needs to prove that he can stay healthy and carry the load for a team, but as the 103rd pick on average, it's a pretty decent value right now.

While Roy Williams still has a 14.3|PERCENT| increase overall, it is definitely worth noting that the Bears wideout dropped almost four percentage points over the last week and is dangerously close to being demoted in favor of Johnny Knox.  His ascension in the ADP rankings has been quite a ride, but it's now starting to look like he may even be overvalued at the 90th pick.

The rest of the Risers are all players that we've tracked over the last few weeks and are all starting to go in drafts where they should be going.  Some likeLee Evans and Felix Jones have made steady climbs through strong pre-seasons and others like Ben Tate and Lance Moore have ascended due to injuries on their respective teams.  None though, have climbed to a point where you would be reaching for them in drafts if you took them where they are listed in the ADP rankings.

Fallers

Overall Trend
197.Ryan WilliamsRBARI-29.5|PERCENT|
1.Arian FosterRBHOU-23.1|PERCENT|
212.Jerome SimpsonWRCIN-14.9|PERCENT|
43.Jonathan StewartRBCAR-14.3|PERCENT|
86.Steven SmithWRPHI-13.4|PERCENT|
225.Toby GerhartRBMIN-12.3|PERCENT|
11.Michael TurnerRBATL-12.2|PERCENT|
66.Ryan TorainRBWAS-12.0|PERCENT|
7.Maurice Jones-DrewRBJAX-10.6|PERCENT|
30.Peyton ManningQBIND-10.6|PERCENT|
80.Mike WilliamsWRSEA-10.5|PERCENT|

The Fallers section is adorned with the usual suspects again, so we're not going to beat a dead horse and continue talking about Ryan Williams' season ending injury, the hard-luck situation for Jerome Simpson in Cincinnati, or Toby Gerhart's declining touches in Minnesota.  What we can discuss is Arian Foster's hamstring and how that has quickly knocked him down 23.1|PERCENT| in the overall and that he is no longer the consensus #1 pick.  Word is that he'll be ready to go for Week 1, but obviously, fantasy owners are hedging their bets.

Could Mike Williams' decline in the ADP rankings be attributed to Tavaris Jackson or the fact that Sidney Rice and tight end Zach Miller are becoming gbigger favorites?  Either way, his value at the 80th pick could come into question, so if you're still waiting to draft, you may want to let him fall a little further.

It's good to see that the masses have finally caught on that Steven Smith will not be a major player in Philadelphia this year unless there's a major shift on the depth chart.  He was climbing up the ADP rankings early on, but when word came out of his slow recovery from knee surgery and the fact that he is still listed behind Jason Avant who is the WR3 for the Eagles, Smith has gradually begun to drop – 8.0|PERCENT| in just the last week.