Stuck in the airport for the next hour in Vegas (arrived early after shoveling chips into other people's possession at the poker table for no good reason except maybe that I was drunk and bored, and those aren't good reasons), so I have nothing better to do than give the rundown of my NFFC team. It's a 14-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX (RB, WR, TE), 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D, 9 reserves. Quirks are that it's PPR for WR/TE, but 1/2 PPR for RBs. Also "3rd round reversal" which means it snakes 1-14, 14-1, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1, etc. In other words team 14 gets the 15th pick, but also the 29th pick.
We had a chance to choose our draft slots, and I foolishly (before I had thought it through enough) choose No. 5. I thought 5 was good because I'd get one of Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy or Arian Foster in a PPR. What I didn't realize until a couple days ago is that 1/2 PPR really levels the playing field between those backs, lesser receiving backs and top receivers. (In my defense, I had to pick my slot with 24 hours of learning I had a spot in the league, and was swamped with other things). So there's no real advantage to picking fifth rather than say 8th or 9th, and then 8th and 9th get an earlier pick in Round 2. AND 8th and 9th get an earlier pick in Round 3. But someone's got to have the No. 5 slot, and I intended to make the best of it.
On the short flight to Vegas, I mocked out on paper how I thought the draft might go. I determined I'd take Andre Johnson at 5 because if he goes 90-1400-9, that's 284 fantasy points. If Jamaal Charles, for example has 2000 yards from scrimmage, 9 TDs and 60 catches, that's 284 points, too. So if the two are roughly equal given their solid healthy projections, I should get Johnson because you need 3 WR and only 2 RB. And as Peter Schoenke showed receivers are more likely than backs to hit their projections. It's worth noting I resolved to do this even though DDD said it was the cowardly choice on our SXM show last week.
So in my mock, I had Johnson going to me, and then hopefully Ahmad Bradshaw coming back in Round 2. I then considered Wes Welker (someone I abhor in a standard league) in Round 3 for all the PPR points, and I hoped for maybe Ryan Mathews in Round 4 and Percy Harvin in Round 5. I didn't go further than that.
So I got to the actual draft today, and the picks go: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice and then.... Andre Johnson. So it's my first pick, and because I hadn't even considered the possibility of Andre Johnson going in the top four, suddenly I'm not sure what I want to do. Do I go Arian Foster for the upside, or Jamaal Charles who's healthy at least. I went with Charles. Roddy White went sixth, believe it or not, and Foster went seventh. Larry Fitzgerald went 8th, Calvin Johnson went 9th and Vincent Jackson went 10th!
In any event, I won't recap the whole draft, blow by blow, but suffice it to say I wasn't the only one who had done the math about receivers being more valuable in this format. But I had to take what the draft gave me, nonetheless. Here's my full squad below:
1.5: Jamaal Charles
2.10: Darren McFadden (yes, I was shocked and woud deal with receivers later)
3.10 due to 3RR: Ahmad Bradshaw (got him after all, in Round 3, but now my WRs were a real issue in this system.
4.5: Jeremy Maclin
5.10: Sidney Rice (Santana Moss, Kenny Britt, Chad Ochocinco went next - was hoping for one of the latter two on the way back, but didn't get it).
6.5: Fred Jackson (first bench player - next WRs were Nate Burleson, Hines Ward and A.J, Green. Wanted value, will need a bye-week fill-in, and someone always gets hurt. Also wanted to punish RB waiters. Top-7 TE and QB were gone at that point, too.)
7.10: Joe Flacco - wanted to wait longer on QB, but Manning owner took Josh Freeman right before me, and Eli and Matt Ryan were also gone. Dangerous in 14-team no trade league with deep benches to wait too long on QB.
8.5: Earl Bennett - have him in all six leagues. Think he'll pay the bills as a WR3 in PPR.
9.10: Lee Evans - needed more WR depth.
10.5: C.J. Spiller - had to take the value, even though it cost me Kevin Kolb as my backup, and I knew it would.
11.10: Chris Cooley - my first tight end
12.05: Jared Cook - in case Cooley's not healthy
13.10: Kyle Orton - backup QB
14.05: Roy Williams - might be fat and lazy, but at draft time, still in running for No. 1 WR job.
15.10: Alex Green
16.05: Rams D (Giants got snaked from me one pick prior)
17.10: Jerome Simpson - Alex Henery got snaked from me one pick prior and didn't care about the rest of the kickers.
18.05: Dan Carpenter
19.10: Tim Tebow - this year's Michael Vick!
Overall, I'm happy with this team, but my slot was not ideal, and another squad - out of the nine-hole (and RotoWire readers it turns out) - seems the strongest to me: With their first eight picks they got:
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Hakeem Nicks
3. Drew Brees
4. Chris Wells
5. Percy Harvin (really wanted Harvin at 5
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Pierre Garcon
8. Daniel Thomas
Don't love Lynch or Garcon, but 1-5 is rock solid, and Thomas is a very good value.
I'll be talking more about this draft with NFFC proprietor Greg Ambrosius on the SXM show Tuesday at noon ET.