James Shields - Only three pitchers had a worse ERA than Shields' 5.18 mark last season, and that occurred while Tropicana Field ranked as the best pitcher's park in all of baseball according to Park Factors. Shields' 3.7:1 K:BB ratio was actually excellent, but with a .294 BAA and 34 homers allowed, he was simply too hittable, and there was an argument to be made that he was attacking the strike zone too much. Shields' start to the 2011 season could not be more different, as he's currently sporting a 2.00 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with a 73:15 K:BB ratio over 76.2 innings.
His velocity is the same as last season, so it would be easy to compare last year's .341 BABIP and 68.4 LOB|PERCENT| to this year's .249 BABIP and 87.0 LOB|PERCENT| and conclude Shields was terribly unlucky in 2010 and has been extremely fortunate in 2011. While that's hard to argue against, and his true talent level is almost certainly somewhere in between, Shields has also pitched differently this season, so he deserves credit. He's throwing his fastball and cutter at career-low rates, and he's utilizing his curveball and changeup much more frequently. In 2010, he threw a fastball on 0-0 counts 64.0 percent of the time. That number has dropped to 52.0 percent in 2011, as he's made a concerted effort to "pitch backward" and not be so predictable. Shields has actually thrown a greater percentage of pitches inside the strike zone this year compared to last, so he's hardly nibbling, but he's going about it a different way, and it's hard to argue with the results. Shields' 1.32 GB/FB rate is easily a career-high, and after giving up 1.50 HR/9 last season, he's down to 0.82 this year despite an average 10.3 HR/FB|PERCENT|. It's a huge difference, and while his hit rate is bound to rise, the Rays have the best UZR in baseball, so he benefits from not only a terrific pitcher's park but also a fantastic defense behind him. Shields has been the very definition of a "last year's bum" paying off in a big way.
Albert Pujols – Over his first 10 years in the league, Pujols' average season looked like this: .331-41-119-123-8 – so it's a little obvious to call the unanimous No. 1 fantasy pick a buy-low target after his .269/.341/.409 start. But his slump is now creeping into one-third of the season, and he hasn't hit a homer since April 23, so there might be a genuine buying opportunity if his owners question whether he's playing hurt or if his contract situation is really affecting his play that much. Pujols is hitting more groundballs and fewer line drives than ever before, but it's no surprise there's some underwhelming batted ball evidence when looking at his production – he simply hasn't been nearly as good as usual. There isn't an underlying stat that points to an imminent return to stardom, although it's comforting his K rate has remained the same, but it wouldn't take a huge leap of faith to expect Pujols to start going nuts at the plate soon. While Lance Berkman can't be expected to both stay healthy and remain this productive all season, it's safe to say Pujols might be hitting in the middle of the best Cardinals' lineup of his career. St. Louis currently has four batters in its lineup with an OBP .380 or better and five with .350-plus – and none of them are Pujols. The Cardinals' .348 wOBA leads major league baseball, and that's with Pujols having the worst season of his career by a wide margin. Only three other hitters in MLB have come to the plate with more runners on base than him in 2011, so imagine the kind of production Pujols would be having in a typical year. Often identifying a trade target is much easier than actually executing a deal, but fantasy owners are presented with an opportunity right now to make a move that could really pay off. Would Mark Teixeira and a closer get him? It's worth finding out.
Jason Heyward – Heyward's talent is immense, and it would be foolish to write someone off at age 21, but the hype is no longer commensurate with the player. For one, he needs to be considered an injury risk until he proves otherwise moving forward. While his ability to play through pain is commendable, and it's possible the nagging injuries contributed to his slow start at the plate, either way, it's disconcerting. Heyward's line drive rate (12.3|PERCENT|) ranks in the bottom-10 in baseball, which is especially worrisome since he also hits so many groundballs (1.51 GB/FB). While Joey Votto has yet to hit a single infield fly ball since 2009 ended, Heyward's 21.6 IFFB|PERCENT| is also bottom-five in MLB. This is not the profile of a future star. Heyward has plenty of time to get healthy and also improve as a hitter, but these discouraging signs shouldn't be totally overlooked.