The RotoWire Blog has been retired.

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Moving The Needle

I'm filling in for Chris Liss this week. Chris turned 50 years old over the weekend, so be sure to congratulate him when he returns from his celebration.

Justin Morneau – Before suffering a serious concussion that ended his season last year, Morneau was among the leading MVP candidates, posting a .345/.437/.618 line with 18 homers and 56 RBI over 296 at-bats. He did so despite his home park playing as easily the toughest place to homer in all of baseball. In fact, just four of his  home runs came in Target Field. While Morneau was quite clearly playing over his head last season and was undeserving of winning the MVP award in 2006, he's been one of baseball's better hitters over the past five years, so it was good news he was cleared to return to the field to start 2011. There was still reason to worry since lingering effects of the concussion made his start to the season questionable, and so far his performance has done anything but ease the concerns of his health. Morneau ended April with a .592 OPS, and dating back through spring training, Sunday marked his first homer over his previous 111 at-bats. Although his walk rate is way down, Morneau's K rate is actually down too, the rest of his batted ball profile looks similar to his career levels, so it's safe to assume things will only get better from here on out. However, he still has Target Field to deal with, and the lasting effects of such a serious brain injury makes his horrifically bad start to the 2011 season especially eye-opening. 

Curtis Granderson
– Granderson already has eight homers during the young season, a number he didn't reach until well after the All-Star break last year. He'll always be a batting average risk as someone who strikes out a lot and hits a bunch of fly balls, but at age 30, only health should prevent Granderson from setting a career-high in homers in 2011. According to the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium had a home run index of 170 for left-handers last season, which led the majors. Put differently, it was 70 percent easier to hit homers there than the rest of the parks in the league. The HR index is 141 for LHB since the stadium's inception. It's almost not worth mentioning over a 25 at-bat sample, but Granderson, who has struggled mightily against southpaws throughout his career, has posted a 1.000 OPS against left-handers so far this year. Moreover, thanks to the hot start, he's been batting second in the Yankees' lineup recently, a spot that should result in monster counting stats.

Gordon Beckham – While it's almost always best to preach patience this time of year, when it comes to former prospects who've never truly proven they can hit major league pitching, at some point it becomes worth worrying. Beckham was a big disappointment last year after an encouraging albeit not overwhelming rookie campaign, although improvement over the second half of the season (.877 OPS) gave optimism for the former top-10 draft pick. He's off to an ugly start, however, hitting .208/.257/.317, resulting in a move to the bottom of the order. It's far too early to write off someone who's yet to accumulate even 1,000 at-bats in the majors, but it'd be nice to see potential turn into reality at some point.

Justin Smoak – Smoak is another former top prospect who entered 2011 viewed as something of a failure so far in the majors, but unlike Beckham, he's shown real growth during his third year in the league. That progress actually began late last season, when Smoak hit three homers over the final seven games. His fantasy upside took a major hit when he got traded out of Texas' friendly ballpark and into Safeco Field, but Seattle's home park has historically suppressed homers much more for right-handed hitters, and Smoak is a switch-hitter who will be getting the majority of his plate appearances from the left side. Smoak's arrow is pointing up, as he possesses legitimate power, and his current walk rate of 16.1 percent as a 24-year-old is impressive and suggests a bright future is in store.