First, I'll preface with what I have to say that I'm a Yankees fan. It was passed down to me by my father, who was a huge Thurman Munson fan (what an awesome player). That being said, I'd like to think I can still take a step back and objectively evaluate this year's team and their chances.
Everyone (perhaps even myself included) is ready to hand the division to the Red Sox. You can find them at -150 to win the division while the Yankees come in at +190. I kind of like those odds for the Yanks but I'll get to that later. Everyone points out how the Red Sox upgraded with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez but they lost Victor Martinez (.302 BA, 20 homers, 79 RBI) and Adrian Beltre (.321 BA, 28 homers, 102 RBI). Is that an upgrade? Absolutely, just don't forget they lost a couple of solid performances in the process. The BoSox also endured an alarming number of injuries (Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron, etc.) so they should be a much healthier team this year.
How does the rest of the division look? The Rays aren't going to be a 96-win team (thanks for checking in Captain Obvious) but the Blue Jays and Orioles should be much better. For me that makes the division much more difficult for both the Yankees and Boston.
Now to the meat of my argument. The Yankees made little significant offseason moves outside of signing Rafael Soriano. They lost Javier Vazquez after he refused arbitration and lost the Cliff Lee sweepstakes since he has some affinity for cheesesteaks. Can't say I blame you Cliff.
Hmm, where should we start, the offense or the rotation? Let's go with the easier one to begin with, the offense. Here's a look at the players offensive production from 2009 compared to what they did in 2010:
2009 - .334 BA, 30 SBs, 66 RBI
2010 - .270 BA, 18 SBs, 67 RBI
2009 - .292 BA, 39 HRs, 122 RBI
2010 - .256 BA, 33 HRs, 108 RBI
Alex Rodriguez (with 78 more ABs in 2010):
2009 - .286 BA, 100 RBI, 14 SBs, 78 runs
2010 - .270 BA, 125 RBI, 4 SBs, 74 runs
I give you three of the first four batters in the Yankees lineup. Think there will be some improvement out of these three this year?
Let's go to some random offensive notes:
Curtis Granderson was not healthy the whole season and only logged 466 ABs. His defense is as important to me as his offense is.
Robinson Cano improved his OPS, RBI and HR for the third straight season. He's not slowing down folks.
|STAR|Fantasy note|STAR| - I've started to do money drafts and I've never seen so many catchers go in the top-100. That being said, if you miss out on a Victor Martinez, think of Jorge Posada as a Martinez-lite since he'll log most of his at-bats as a DH.
Brett Gardner – Run, Brett, run. If you miss out on an early speedster, grab him. He's also rumored to be taking over the leadoff spot which would substantially increase his value.
Behind the plate will be Russell Martin (please stay healthy) or Francisco Cervelli (who walks almost as much as strikes out). In the real baseball world, Cervelli is a huge upgrade over Posada defensively; especially when you consider how much the Rays and Red Sox will run. This isn't taking into account a trade for a hitter or the hope that Hey-Zeus/Jesus Montero comes up at some point or further impresses this spring.
Now let's look at the rotation which most think is weaker this year than last. Right now we're looking at:
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Philip Hughes
3. A.J. Burnett
4. Ivan Nova
5. Freddy Garcia/Sergio Mitre/Bartolo Colon
Ugh, I'm not a negative guy but remember when Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright were the next big things? I'll stop rubbing the salt there, Cleveland fans. Take solace that Charlie Sheen is doing better (I say F|STAR| you, Jobu).
Sabathia has a rubber arm. I'm convinced of that now and totally late to that party. Pencil him in for sub-3.50 ERA and a sub-1.20 WHIP. The fact that he's been good for 240-plus innings over the last three years magnifies those stats in the fantasy world.
I give you Philip Hughes, man of mystery:
First half split – 3.65 ERA, 101 innings, 8.1 K/9.
Second half – 4.90 ERA, 75.1 innings, 6.57 K/9.
Hughes pitched 105.2 innings in 2009, 176.1 in 2010. Maybe he's not a man of mystery and just wore down? A second full year in the rotation could see him take the next step.
A.J. Burnett, the Dice-K of the Yankees. Let's look at his 2010 season:
5.25 ERA, 1.511 WHIP with a nine-year low of 6.99 K/9. 2010 was basically his worst statistical season in the last five years. He'll bounce-back and there's no doubt he'll be better than 2010 Burnett.
Moving on to the fourth SP, which is likely Ivan Nova. He's a nice piece to the puzzle has |STAR|some|STAR| upside. The 2.86 ERA at Triple-A is somewhat suspect considering his 79 percent LOB and 1.26 WHIP. That being said, he increased his K/9 rate while lowering his BB/9 rate at Scranton which bodes good for his future. So how does this impact the Yankees rotation? I've already come to the brilliant conclusion that the 2011 A.J. Burnett will be better than the 2010 Burnett. Now that we've gotten that out of the way what does Nova have to do? He has to be better than the 2010 version of Javier Vazquez, right? So let's look at what Javier Vazquez did in 2010:
5.32 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 6.92 K/9 rate.
That being noted, this year Javier's K rate will go up by at least one, his HR/FB (14.0) rate will drop in his new park as will the WHIP and ERA. Don't forget about him late in your drafts. Back to Ivan Nova for a second. He was hitting 96 on the gun Sunday, sitting down all six batters he faced (2Ks in the process).
Fifth starter, who knows? Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon - how much gas is left in the tank? The Yankees need to worry about who can get them to the playoffs and win another ring. Could that be addressed via a trade? Definitely since pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Joe Blanton have been rumored to be available. Blind squirrel note from last year's Barometer about Blanton when I put him in the upgrade section on 7/18/2010:
"I'm guessing I could catch some flak for this choice, but at least hear me out. I actually picked up Blanton and rolled with him on Friday at Chicago, and he had a decent outing – seven innings, three earned runs and a 8:3 K:BB ratio. Why did I roll with Blanton? First, he appears to be over the left oblique strain that plagued him earlier this year. Next, though Blanton entered the Cubs game with a 6.41 ERA and a WHIP north of 1.50, he has consistently been around a 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP kind of pitcher during his season and a half with the Phillies. Therefore, he's likely going to improve on those numbers going forward. OK, that's some easy, even flimsy reasoning; here's some more solid stuff. Right now his 62.6|PERCENT| strand rate is a career low while his BABIP is 29 points higher than his career average. His GB|PERCENT| is up two percent from last year and his LD|PERCENT| is down five percent, suggesting that his BABIP is in fact unlucky. His K/9 rate is down from last year, but he has improved each month since his injury and stands at 10.61 over 18.2 July innings. He'll get a good test on Wednesday when the Phillies travel to St. Louis."
Blanton ended up with a second-half that looked like this:
95.1 innings, 3.48 ERA, 6-1 record, 1.27 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 rate (considering a 5.73 K/9 over the first half).
Don't sleep on him this year in NL-only or in deep mixed leagues. He's not Nolan Ryan but he's not a scrub either. Back to the fifth starter's spot. It could be a mix-and match as the Yankees are also rumored to be interested in Francisco Liriano. He'd be a great addition to the rotation but it'd likely take either Nova or Montero to get him. Side note – shouldn't the Twins be in the market for a 3B prospect for Liriano? Just my thought, since they haven't had a solid 3B in quite some time.
If a trade doesn't take place, I hope someone lays claim to the fifth spot with an outstanding spring. After Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia the Yankees have a couple of nice prospects in Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos. While I think it's highly unlikely, we could see Andy Pettitte join the Yankees at some point this season. Not to disrespect Andy, his 11-3 record with a 3.28 ERA and 1.271 WHIP over 21 starts will be missed. Onto the bullpen:
The addition of Rafael Soriano bolsters the relieving corps which last year saw Joba Chamberlain go:
4.40 ERA with a 1.298 WHIP in 2010. Reports indicate that he's showed up heavier which makes me think he's entering the "fat toad" category. That being said he was reportedly throwing some heat on Saturday and maybe the move to the seventh inning role will take some pressure off him.
Mariano Rivera remains one of the elite closers in the game and his cutter is as lethal as ever. I'd grade the bullpen to be stronger this year.
Back to the original premise, will the Yankees be "all right?" The Yanks will likely make a deal considering all their prospects; it's just a matter of when and for whom. The bounce-back seasons from their big bats is more likely to happen than not. The rotation wasn't as good as I think most perceived it to be last year; yet they still won 95 games and made the playoffs. The over/under on their team wins this season is 91 and after taking all this into consideration, I'd take the over but wouldn't go too heavy on it. What do you think?