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Monday Morning Thoughts

-This week I'll touch on other sports more than football due to the lack of football games this weekend. I'll also see if I can go the whole article with using only one space after a period. We'll see.

-From the "wait-with-baited-breath department." I've been working on a "Busts" article for the site over the last week and feel free to comment once it's posted. I thought I'd take some time to discuss some guys who came close but in the end I couldn't pull the trigger on them in the column. The first might come as a surprise – Carlos Gonzalez. Wouldn't you think it was kind of fluky that he hit .336 despite a 23|PERCENT| strikeout rate? Throw in a career-best .386 BABIP (that's including the minors) and there's got to be some regression for the upcoming season, right? Maybe, maybe not. Over the final three months he absolutely raked. His strikeout rate decreased those three months, going from 26.5|PERCENT|, 20.4|PERCENT| and to finally 19.8|PERCENT|.  CarGo's OPS those three months were 1.150, 1.174 and 1.043; he didn't go above .900 the first three months. Taking this into account, I'm actually more bullish on him than I was before I started looking at him. I've seen him go as high as #1 overall in an expert mock draft; he's typically going within the top-6 picks which I can't argue with. I also try not to subscribe to the "he's not going to match last year's stats" rhetoric when doing a "Busts" column as long as those stats are not going to be too significant. Another player I looked at was B.J. Upton. Again, by the time I was done looking at him, I was higher on him than before I started. First, he'll be over two years removed from shoulder surgery and the 18 home runs last year could be the floor and not the ceiling. He still strikes out a ton and I have zero evidence he won't continue to do so. However, what if he gets lucky this year and sees a spike in his BABIP?  In 2007 and 2008 he had BABIPs of .393 and .344, respectively, and hit .300 and .283 those seasons. The last two seasons he's had BABIPs of .310 and .304, respectively, which led to .241 and .237 averages.  So again, if he somehow gets lucky this year, puts up a .350 BABIP which nets him a .270-.280 batting average, what does his ceiling look like? If he hits for an average in that range, is it too crazy to predict a 25-homer, 100-run, 50-stolen base season? Realistically I'd give that a 20-25|PERCENT| chance that it actually happens but is that enough to gamble on him? The next player I looked at was Drew Stubbs. For the third time I liked better him better after doing some research. Again, I started with looking at the high strikeout rate. For the season last year, Stubbs struck out just under one-third of his at-bats (32.7|PERCENT|). When looking at his splits that number did not improve but his BABIP did over the last two months (.413 and .407). So either he was very lucky or really tearing the cover off the ball when he was making contact. As a result, he had his two best months of OPS (.870 and .995) over the last two months. I'd gamble on him seeing the ball better over being lucky and gladly look to land him in the middle rounds ahead of whatever his ADP ends up being.

-Another guy that I like this year (as long as I'm in love-fest mode) is Dexter Fowler.  He'll only be 25 this year and showed signs to be ready to break-out this season. He batted at least .275 over the final three months and had four of his six home runs over the second-half of the season. Fowler hit a whopping 11 triples at home and with a little extra power, those could translate into home runs. I'd buy heavy on him, especially in dynasty leagues as he's going to have a monster season in the near future.

-The last baseball note is about Jason Bay. He was a strong candidate for the "Busts" column not only due to his concussion (all reports look positive) but what he had done prior to the injury. He hit only six home runs over 348 at-bats and had an even three/three split between home and away games. That means it wasn't like Citi Field was the culprit of his power outage. That being said, I think he'll come at a discount whether it is in an auction or snake-style draft, which excluded him from the list. There's still power upside there; just remember that he's not a dependable guy in the batting average department.

-Switching to basketball, will the firing of Jim O'Brien lead to more playing time and thus fantasy value for Roy Hibbert? I don't think it can get worse when looking at his monthly minute averages since October (34.7, 29.4, 27.7 to 21.4 in January). I'd definitely throw an offer out to his owner in any format. Teammate Paul George will be a superstar within the next three years, you heard it hear first.

-I mentioned last week that I was hoping the Michael Bradley to the EPL rumors would come to fruition and they have. He's been transferred to Aston Villa, where he'll join fellow Americans Brad Friedel and Eric Lichaj. There's going to be a glut of solid candidates for the USA's starting central midfielder spots come next World Cup and that's a very good problem to have.

-I watched far more of the hockey All-Star game than I expected to, mostly because my son was into it. After taking a 4-0 lead, Team Staal lost by a goal 11-10. I question pulling the goalie when Team Staal did with over a minute left. In this format, shouldn't you leave your goalie in longer than a normal game? Not a big difference but after Team Lindstrom had an empty-netter to go up two, Team Staal pulled to within a goal with about half a minute left. Kudos are in order to the NHL for trying a fantasy-style draft to determine the two teams instead of any of the irrelevant past formats that took place. Loved how Captain Eric Staal took New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundquist over his brother Marc Staal.  If they stick with the same style next year, do you take Tim Thomas (three straight All-Star wins), Nick Lindstrom (+7 rating) or Shea Weber (+6 rating) as you're overall number one? Or is this a ridiculous question as a healthy Sidney Crosby is the correct answer?

-Again, my son urged me to turn on the Pro Bowl (which as I stated last week, I don't really care about) and when I flipped it on at 8:40 EST, it was 42-0. Seriously? I'm guessing you could have gotten great odds if you took Ovie Mughelli to score the first TD (I went back and looked, it was actually 25:1) and I wouldn't have pegged Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers to have a combined for a first-half 2.94 YPA with three interceptions and no touchdowns. The spread for the game was roughly even and if you bet on it (I get that makes it interesting but…) you likely have a problem. There was circus music playing in my head when watching the last AFC TD, which was fun to watch.

-If you're one of the many teams looking for a quarterback in the upcoming draft, do you want to take a chance on Jake Locker? After a lackluster season and unimpressive Senior Bowl, can you find a player whose stock has dropped more over the last year? Now that I've said that, my Bills will trade up and draft him in the late second round.

-Is there a big game on Sunday? Let's discuss.

-It's on FOX, so we're getting the Troy Aikman and Joe Buck combo (groan).  Is the most entertaining thing Buck's ever done is to have Artie Lange on the Joe Buck show?

-I've come to the conclusion that I'm not too worried about a botched snap from Doug Legursky to Ben Roethlisberger, I'm more concerned about Legursky stopping B.J. Raji (his dance too) and run blocking. Don't be surprised if the Steelers have to take to the air at some point. There's a bunch of solid receivers after Mike Wallace, Heath Miller and Hines Ward. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown (don't forget Antwaan Randle El is still around) have come up big for Pittsburgh this postseason.

-Interesting battle between the two defensive coordinators of the SB teams. If you asked me before the playoffs as to who is the better coordinator, I would have easily said Dick LaBeau. However, Dom Capers completely confused Jay Cutler and most of the Bears for the better part of the NFC Championship. This isn't even counting the job he did on the Eagles and Falcons. I'm looking forward to the matchup and as good as both defenses are capable of playing it leads me to have zero feel about the over/under for the game.

-I'd guess Troy Polamalu has offseason surgery on his Achilles' and a few other players in this game go under the knife.

-The Green Bay secondary is interesting. In many ways the Sam Shields/Nick Collins combo reminds me of last year's Tracy Porter/Darren Sharper combo. They aren't the total shut-down type of secondary; rather I see them as the opportunistic types who are willing to gamble to either get the turnover or get burned for a TD. Which shows up Sunday?

-Ben Roethlisberger is 6'5", 242 lbs., Clay Matthews is 6'3", 240 lbs. Just an interesting comparison, IMO.

-Some interesting prop bets that I've come across and my feeling as to where to side. Please note these are for fun, do not follow me for any reason whatsoever.

-Blake Griffin rebounds (Sunday) or total points scored in the second quarter. Blake hasn't gotten above 11 over his last three games but faces the Heat (a team that is weak in the middle). There's a chance we see 21 points in the second quarter and I can't imagine Blake comes near that mark. I'll take the football game but only slightly.

-How many times is Brett Favre mentioned on "live" TV, over/under 2.5 (over is -200)? It's Aikman and Buck, so it's an easy over even with those odds.

-Will any player do the Lambeau Leap after scoring a TD, yes is - +165, no –225? I'm pretty sure Green Bay will score a TD in this game so I'll go with "yes".

-How long will Christina Aguilera hold the last "brave" note on the Star Spangled Banner, over/under six seconds? I'd go under on hoping she's out of breath after belting a soulful, long-winded "free" note seconds earlier.

-If you're betting the coin toss, you probably bet the Pro Bowl. Again, there's probably a gambling problem here.

-MVP, you can find Big Ben at +300 and Aaron Rodgers at +175. I think I'd take both on this since a QB has been the MVP in three of the last four Super Bowls. Both had bad games last time out and I'd be shocked if it happens again.

-Over/Under on Rodgers' completion percentage at 63|PERCENT|? I'd go over since before the Bears game he posted above that mark in the two previous playoff games and has been extremely solid in domes this year (the roof will be closed in Dallas on Sunday).

-James Starks total rushing yards, over/under 52.5? I'm going with the under as the Steelers are too solid against the run. To me, this is a number as a result of Starks going 74, 66 and 123 yards in the previous three games. It won't happen again.

-Total receiving yards for the game, Mike Wallace +1.5 (even) vs. Greg Jennings (-130)? The last two games Jennings has 231 receiving yards while Wallace has 26. So naturally, I'll back Wallace here (slightly).

-Final, ultimate Payne prediction for the Super Bowl. ATS, I'll take the Steelers plus the three points (even if it's -120 or -130). I've gone 7-3 for the playoffs, enduring two of those losses fading the Packers over their last two games. So have I learned from my mistakes? Obviously not. Follow my logic here as insane as it seems just for a minute. The first line that came out (and is still available) has the Packers -2.5. Is that really a relevant line? Probably not given that only once in the last 44 Super Bowls the game has been a game decided by less than 2.5 points. As a Bills fan, we won't discuss that one game. So Vegas is begging the public to back the Packers, which is what I'm expecting will happen this week. Green Bay has killed Vegas during the playoffs and I'm guessing Vegas is "all-in" that the Steelers will win. The city doesn't continue to stand on losing money and I'll back them this Sunday. I'll go 27-20, Pittsburgh.

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-Agree/disagree on anything I've said? Find any props you found interesting that I missed? Fearless predictions? Did I use two spaces after a period anywhere? Hit up the comments.