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Monday Morning Thoughts

-My Bills (13 turnovers in the last two games) haven't scored more than 17 points in the last six weeks.  That includes a whopping 40 points over the last four games.  Quarterback isn't a priority in the early rounds of the draft but one should be selected in the later rounds.  Brian Brohm has zero pocket presence.

-This could be one of the more strange stats in football, has a team (the Raiders) ever gone undefeated in their division and not made the playoffs?  I think it's a mistake (even with the controversy surrounding him) if Tom able gets canned.  He's done a decent job with this team since taking over.

-I'm torn about Jerome Simpson's prospects for next year.  There's a lot of talent, pedigree, size and speed.  The two fumbles yesterday are obviously a bit of a concern.  That being said, he'll be a great value pick next year with Terrell Owens out of town.

-If you have to choose in a dynasty/keeper league, would you rather have BenJarvus Green-Ellis or LeGarrette Blount for next season?  I pointed out Josh Freeman's sick TD:INT ratio last week; it improved to 25:6 yesterday.  I'm thinking top-7 QB next season.  I'd blindly take the over on whatever number Tampa Bay's win total is next year and guess they're in the NFC Championship game within three years.  Had the 110M high hurdles been part of the combine, Blount would have been drafted, no?

-I figured out the premise within 30 minutes of watching "The American" and wouldn't recommend it.  In a related note, I've also never been confused with Albert Einstein for what it's worth which speaks volumes about the movie.  The best thing I've seen out of George Clooney was probably the E.R. "saving the boy from the culvert" episode, which is at least one of the top-5 E.R. shows ever.

-I've noted in the live blog in the past that there's a backgammon game going on in the Denver end zones.  I'm also thinking the groundskeeper in Denver wore Argyle this holiday season.

-The Patriots won't make the Super Bowl.  Just my opinion.

-If you want to win your College Football Pick 'Em, email me next year and I'll send you my picks.  Then fade them.  Seriously, how bad was the "excessive celebration" penalty on Kansas State?  It makes it worse and not better when anyone points out that two of the refs called it.  Next year, that penalty will take the points off the board and put the team first and ten from the 15-yard line.  What defense was Syracuse in that on the 18-yard, two-point conversion that KSU got one-on-one coverage at the bottom of the end zone to almost complete it?

-Thinking outside of the box, how interesting would it be to do a fantasy league next year with Team RBs instead of individual?  Would you grab the K.C. or Oakland backfield over Minnesota or Tennessee next year?

-Is it me or has Fred Davis become more relevant since Rex Grossman took over and Chris Cooley suddenly got a case of the dropsies?  Cooley has been playing banged up and is having his knee scoped which could explain this.

-Ryan Mathews killed his sleeper stock for next year with his performance.  Keep in mind Tolbert will be back but the Chargers didn't draft Mathews so high to not be the main back.

-I'd be shocked given the possibility of a lock-out if Leslie Frazier and Jason Garrett weren't the head coaches of their respective teams next year.  I'm curious to see how the coaching carousel plays out this week.  I'm thinking there could be the possibility for as many as up to 10 head coaching changes.

-I'm thinking many may have overreacted to Joe Webb's performance last week and were given a dose of reality against an average Detroit defense. 

-He's in the running for the pickup running back of the year, but Peyton Hillis was a huge bust down the stretch.  Hillis hasn't scored a TD since Week 12 and averaged 3.5 YPC (34 YPG) over his last three games.  It's obvious he was worn down and before prognosticators put him in the top-5 for RBs next year they should remember Montario Hardesty is supposed be healthy for 2011.

-Speaking of failing down the stretch, due to the timing and his questionable status last week, Adrian Peterson was also something of a bust.  Outside of Week 16, he posted a total of 28 carries for 57 yards (2.0 YPC) in Weeks 15 and 17.  AP is a beast but expect some type of decline in the next 3-4 years considering the style of running he has.

-Great commercial by the NFL showing the reactions from the Tracy Porter pick-6 last Super Bowl.  Don't leave sharp objects around me if I see another goofy Hyundai commercial with X-Mas carols being sung.

-Some great, great matchups for next weekend.  Given the status of Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, I'm glad to see Green Bay make the playoffs over the Giants.  Still, give me the Eagles ATS, whatever it is.

-I wrote last week about the failings of myself and others for recommending Rashad Jennings.  Yet this week he somehow absolved us for the pick, gaining 142 yards from scrimmage with a TD.  Of course this was against the Texans' defense.  Is Arian Foster the consensus #1 pick next season?  Logic would say yes unless there's another argument I haven't heard.  Put Owen Daniels back into your top-5 TE rankings for next season.

-Last year Detroit went 2-14, Minnesota went 12-4.  This year they both finished 6-10.  Carolina was the only team in the league this year to finish without a win on the road.  I know everyone loves Andrew Luck but I think Ryan Mallett will make for a better NFL QB.

-Predictions for this weekend and beyond?  Now's the time to predict.  If I had to choose between the Falcons and Bears or the remaining four NFC teams, I think the latter represents the NFC in the SB.  I'll take the Steelers vs. the Eagles in the SB with the Eagles finally winning it.  This weekend the Eagles are -2.5, the Colts -3 and the Chiefs are +3 - which is odd unless Vegas is looking at yesterday's performances.