I jotted a few notes here-and-there in the process of doing our projections for the MLB mag and the site. Here's a few observations:
- The combination of signing Adam Dunn and re-signing Paul Konerko by the White Sox was generally a good move. But one potentially negative ramification is that it precludes Carlos Quentin from getting many starts as the DH. The objection here isn't about Quentin's defense, but rather his ability to stay on the field. He's not the most durable player to begin with, and if the White Sox continue to stick him left field everyday, I think he's going to get hurt. The dropoff from Quentin to Mark Teahen or, gulp, Alejandro de Aza, is pretty steep. You might say that the White Sox should be able to readily find a replacement level or better outfielder to carry, but in light of all the at-bats Mark Kotsay got for them last year, that's a dubious proposition. It's still worth the bargain to add Dunn - after all, failing that signing, we were looking at a Mark Teahen, corner outfielder, reign of terror on a full-time basis rather than his projected semi-regular appearances.
- Alexis Rios' 2010 season was remarkably similar at the end of the day to his 2008 season, despite a far better start in 2010.
- Depending on what else they do this offseason, the Dodgers might be seeing a whole lot more of Tony Gwynn Jr. than they'd like at the plate. I don't see Jay Gibbons as much of a long-term solution, and they fell short of acquiring Bill Hall.
- Speaking of Hall, the Astros grabbed him, and I think they're be overpaying based on his 18 homers with the Red Sox last year while not appropriately discounting for .70 contact rate that's not going to get better. That's going to be a wretched offense once again.
- Bid the extra dollar on Victor Martinez this year. He's not with the Red Sox and Comerica Park is going to perhaps hurt his power a little bit, but I suspect you're going to get many more at-bats than he's been able to provide in the past, as most of his at-bats are going to come as the DH. That's a tradeoff I'm willing to accept. Then again, I've frequently been willing to bid the extra buck on Victor anyways.
- All you need to know about the Mariners' offense last year is that Josh Wilson somehow got 361 at-bats for them, with a .572 OPS. And that was a good year for him.
- I've done four mixed league mock drafts and two auctions, and not once has Todd Helton been selected. He currently doesn't rate anywhere on Mock Draft Central's ADP list, either. I don't think that this is a mistake.
- The Diamondbacks rubbed off on Adam LaRoche last year - he struck out 172 times after a previous career high of 140 times.
- Nick Markakis was a huge disappointment last season, but I think his power and RBI drop was at least in part attributable to the failure of others, notably Adam Jones' regression and the absence of Brian Roberts in the lineup in front of him. His batting average and CT rate have remained stable, he's still hitting doubles, and he walked considerably more last year. If Roberts can stay healthy and keep getting on base in front of Markakis, I think we'll see a recovery this year. We just might not ever see that power breakout that many were hoping for - I'd say his range in any given year is in the 15-25 area.
- In many leagues, Luke Scott will be DH only this year. He played 19 games at first base, 14 in the outfield, and 93 at DH. That's ok in an AL-only league, though not optimal, but it's a killer for his value on draft day in mixed leagues. If the O's go out and sign a first baseman (and apparently they've offered Adam LaRoche a three-year deal), Scott might not end up qualifying at any position this year.