I participated in two drafts Tuesday night, both very different. The first was the SOFA Fantasy Experts league and the second was the Rotowire staff league. The SOFA league was a Serpentine PPR draft while the Rotowire staff league was an auction with standard scoring. I used the Rotowire software to generate a list of rankings, although I use it as a generalization of where players should go; I typically take whoever I like.
The 12-team league uses pretty standard PPR scoring: 1 point per catch, .1 point per yard rushing/receiving, 4 points per touchdown pass, .04 points per passing yard.
Starting lineups consist of: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, K, D/ST.
I had the 11th overall pick. Here are my selections and thoughts on who I took.
11. Randy Moss - Please let delusional Darrelle Revis think he's going to get $162 million and sit out a season. The truth is Moss didn't have a great two games against the Jets (nine catches, 58 yards, one TD) and two games means something when you start playoffs Week 14. Of course you can't bench Moss and it's not too big of a deal but it's in the back of my mind. I'm also hoping he was playing hurt the second half of the season (he appeared to be in the playoff game) since he posted pretty drastic splits. The first nine games he recorded 58 catches for 891 yards, the last eight (playoff game included) he caught 45 passes for 406 yards. I think the Patriots come back with a chip on their shoulder after last year's early exit and don't have a problem running up the score. I found it interesting that despite the PPR format, both Aaron Rodgers (9) and Drew Brees (12) went in the first round.
14. Ryan Mathews - I'm skeptical on how many passes he'll actually catch but he remains in a solid offense with a ton of upside. Even if he ends up Michael Turner-lite, this is still a good spot to grab him regardless of the league's scoring parameters.
35. Jahvid Best - As a 2009 Kevin Smith PPR owner, this pick was more about the system than the player. I routinely flipped to the Lions game whenever they were on offense, always getting solid production out of Smith since he caught 3-4 balls a game. While Smith is still a Lion he's coming off knee surgery and the coaching staff has probably had time to figure out that a 3.4 YPC is horrible for a starting NFL back. Enter Jahvid Best, who the coaching staff has fallen in love with. Best has an injury past but has looked great so far in camp and preseason games. If the Lions use him the way Smith was used last year (Smith only came off when he called for it), Best could be a PPR monster. For the record, I took him in front of Matt Forte, Joseph Addai, Chris Wells, LeSean McCoy (a guy who gets a bump in PPR), and Felix Jones. All of those guys went between my pick and the end of the fourth round.
38. Michael Crabtree - No holdout this year, a full offseason to work out with Alex Smith and learn the playbook and you've got an easy call for a breakout. Vernon Davis and Frank Gore should help keep opposing defenses honest and enable him to get into 1-on-1 coverage. If you prorate his stats for an entire season, he would have had over 900 yards as a rookie. The division doesn't scare me from a defensive standpoint and I'd expect at least a 1,100 yard season with 8-10 TDs.
59. Brent Celek - He was the sixth TE taken at this point after Dallas Clark (29), Antonio Gates (37), Vernon Davis (46), Jason Witten (48) and Jermichael Finley (54). He had good numbers with Kevin Kolb during the two games that Kolb started and new QBs tend to lean on their TEs. I was targeting TEs as I like the option in a PPR format of starting two and was lucky enough to snag the one I was really targeting later. Oh, and I had Jay Cutler on my radar before he went four picks earlier.
62. Ronnie Brown - I struggled with this pick as Arian Foster was still on the board (he went the next pick). Ronnie Brown is a great fantasy option…when he's healthy. He seems to be taking the Brian Westbrook career path, missing 16 games the last three seasons. When he's on the field, he gets a ton of usage near the end zone and will be in a better offense with a maturing Chad Henne and newcomer Brandon Marshall.
83. Kellen Winslow - Here's the guy I was really targeting. Winslow had the fourth most targets among TEs (more than Antonio Gates or Jason Witten) and was only seven less than Tony Gonzalez, who led all TEs. He had the sixth most receptions (77) and had he gotten only three more, he would have been fourth. Josh Freeman should be more accurate this year and Mike Williams should take some of the heat off Winslow.
86. Brett Favre - I do not like Favre. I do not like Favre. I do not like him Sam I Am. You learn quickly to think with your head and not your heart as a fantasy player. After watching QBs go early, I decided to wait on a QB which is usual for me. I thought I had to make a move on a QB since 12 QBs were off the draft board at this point. I thought it was good value on Favre here although the day's previous news of Sidney Rice's hip surgery didn't exactly thrill me. Some interesting QB picks ahead of Favre: Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.
107. Lee Evans - A #1 receiver on a team that should be playing from behind, well, all season. I'm hoping he gets a lot of lax coverage late in games and can rack up the catch total. Two picks that I was eying before my pick that went in this round were Jabar Gaffney and Bernard Berrian.
110. Montario Hardesty - I loved the news yesterday that his knee injury was a contusion and nothing to do with past injuries. He seems like the type of back who can handle the workload and despite his success, the Browns don't seem to be high on Jerome Harrison. I don't expect him to catch a lot of passes but he could emerge as the goal line back or prime RB for Cleveland.
131. Marshawn Lynch - I'm still holding out hope that Lynch gets traded into a better situation. Even as things are, there's a good chance he gets some playing time to start the season with Fred Jackson recovering from his hand injury. There's usually a devastating RB injury the first few weeks which could set a Lynch trade in motion.
134. Matt Cassel - In case Favre doesn't work out, here's my insurance policy. I just hope Charlie Weis still has the offensive coordinator magic. Chad Henne and Matthew Stafford were off the board, FWIW.
155. Baltimore Ravens D - They gamble and seem to always come up with big plays.
158. Brian Westbrook - Didn't I mention him in a negative light earlier? A few years ago he was a PPR monster and while I don't expect anything close like that to happen, he could carve out a nice pass-catching role for the Niners.
179. Sammy Morris - He seems to have a nice stretch of games every year and could be in for a bigger role with the aging Fred Taylor and fumblitis-stricken Lawrence Maroney presenting his competition for significant playing time.
182. Aaron Hernandez - He's been impressive in camp so far and I've got it etched in my head that at the end of the season either Rob Gronkowski or he will have had some fantasy value. Look for Alge Crumpler to stay in and block most of the time.
203. Robbie Gould - This team should score a lot more with Mike Martz, right?
206. Deion Branch - His value takes a hit if disgruntled Vincent Jackson comes aboard but he's going to miss time early in the season no matter what.
My team ends up looking like this:
QBs - Brett Favre, Matt Cassel
RBs - Jahvid Best, Ronnie Brown, Montario Hardesty, Ryan Mathews, Marshawn Lynch, Sammy Morris, Brian Westbrook
WRs - Deion Branch, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Randy Moss
TEs - Brent Celek, Kellen Winslow, Aaron Hernandez
K - Robbie Gould
D/ST – Baltimore
I'm obviously thin at WR so my plan is to start only three and use both Winslow and Celek or three RBs. I plan on targeting another WR through trade (maybe dangling Celek or a RB) or the waiver wire; although it's not a smart strategy to plan on acquiring a position after a draft. In my defense, I was doing a second draft at the same time, so there's an excuse albeit a weak one.