After giving up eight earned runs over his last start, Zack Greinke's ERA now sits at 4.01. He's already allowed six more earned runs in 2010 than he did all of last season in 92.1 fewer innings. Some regression was certain after last year, and while it's showing up with a more normal HR/FB|PERCENT|, it's also clear Greinke simply hasn't pitched as well, as his K rate (7.88/9) is significantly lower this season compared to last (9.50/9). Velocity hasn't been an issue (his fastball has averaged 0.5 mph slower, while his slider has been 0.8 mph faster), and he's even increased his O-Swing|PERCENT| (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) to a career-high 29.9|PERCENT|. Put differently, assuming Greinke's shoulder woes are truly behind him and not a risk moving forward (a gamble, to be sure), he's someone to target heavily right now. His control this season has been a career-best (1.84 BB/9), same with his GB|PERCENT| (45.0), and his currently unlucky LOB|PERCENT| (64.2) is bound to correct. Pitchers with his strikeout ability (his true talent level is almost certainly higher than this year's K rate, which is a whopping 10.08/9 in July) who walk fewer than two batters per nine innings and are tough to hit homers against (career HR/FB is 8.7|PERCENT|) are elite. Again, assuming health, Greinke still needs to be considered in the top 5-10 fantasy SP range (even with wins being an issue), so it's worth finding out if that makes him a "buy-low" in your fantasy league.
Love him or hate him, Mike Tyson is definitely interesting. And this interview doesn't change that perception.
Entering Thursday, Dan Uggla had six homers with nine runs scored and 11 RBI over his past six games. He's currently on pace to finish the year batting .280 with 35 home runs, 111 runs scored and 102 RBI. He's not a good defensive player, and because of a big K rate, his batting average has always been low, but this is a second baseman with a career .833 OPS (and he's gotten appreciably better over the past 2.5 seasons while entering his prime). His career-low in home runs is 27 during his rookie campaign, and in fact, if he reaches 30 again this season, it will be his fourth straight year in doing so – no other second baseman in major league baseball has done that over the past three years. His current LD|PERCENT| (12.9) is actually a career-low, so combine that with all the strikeouts, and it's safe to assume his average is going to take a tumble from here on out, but Uggla deserves credit for quietly being a good baseball player.
Love him or hate him, Bill Murray is definitely interesting. And this interview doesn't change that perception.
I'm not writing off the 25-year-old Clay Buchholz, and maybe claiming his 2.71 ERA is a mirage constitutes as a low-hanging fruit, but it's really hard not to consider him among the best sell-high options right now. Again, I like him long-term, but don't let his pedigree mask the fact he's somehow managed to lower last year's ERA by a full 1.50 runs while simultaneously posting worse K and BB rates. Buchholz is throwing his slider more often (11.3|PERCENT| vs. 18.8|PERCENT|) and a lot harder (86.2 mph vs. 89.3 mph) this year compared to last, and his 50.8 GB|PERCENT| is strong. I'm unwilling to state HR/FB|PERCENT| is out of a pitcher's control, but when you look at Buchholz's 6.4|PERCENT| mark and compare it to his last two stints in the majors (14.7|PERCENT| in 2008 and 15.7|PERCENT| in 2009), it's hard not to come to the conclusion he's been fortunate in that area this season. Moreover, while I won't conclude his current .274 BABIP is sure to rise significantly, since the Red Sox have a good defense (it's been humorous how often I've read sarcastic comments about Boston's defense this year after what they did during the offseason, since they've committed too many errors. But the fact remains their UZR is 11th best in baseball, and this has been with significant injuries affecting them), it's also safe to assume that number will be somewhere in the .290-.310 range over the final two months. Bottom line, typically pitchers with a 6.38 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9 are far from this effective, so try to sell him.
I know I'm only joining the chorus criticizing the Diamondbacks' Dan Haren trade, so I'll keep it brief, but did the GM really state winning percentage as a reason why he likes Joe Saunders? "John From Cincinnati" was easier to understand than Arizona's logic here. As a Giants fan, I can't say I'm unhappy to see the D-Backs lose Max Scherzer, Josh Byrnes and Dan Haren over the past six months, while getting little in return.
Juan Pierre might be the best example regarding the difference between real baseball and the fantasy version. He's on pace to finish the season with 61 stolen bases – the most in MLB. Because he's a definite minus in two other categories, Pierre isn't exactly an elite fantasy property, but all those steals make him quite valuable, especially since he should also score 90-100 runs, and with a 28:31 K:BB ratio, his .257 BA should improve as well (although digging deeper it gets weird. His current LD|PERCENT| (13.8) is by far a career-worst, but since he hits so many groundballs (a whopping 2.51 GB/FB and 61.7 GB|PERCENT|), his .277 BABIP sure seems likely to increase). But in real baseball, this is a left fielder with a .617 OPS! And while his defense has improved with the move from center to left, he's not exactly Andres Torres out there, and those offensive numbers from a corner outfielder make him simply one of the least valuable players in major league baseball – a pretty big negative, in fact. Since 2006, Pierre has hit one home run.
Two great reads regarding LeBron James. This one by Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski, and as usual, Dan Le Batard hits one out of the park here.
Bullpen talk: Juan Gutierrez is the only Arizona reliever I'd be willing to own right now. He's not exactly safe, but how about his HR/FB|PERCENT| jumping from 2.5|PERCENT| last year to 21.0|PERCENT| this season?...In between undergoing serious arm surgeries, Hong-Chih Kuo is simply one of the toughest pitchers to hit in all of baseball. His BAA would have been the lowest in MLB during each of the past three years (including this year at a miniscule .127) if he qualified. Adrian Gonzalez's single Thursday was the first hit allowed against a lefty by Kuo all season!...Considering Wilson Ramos was recently considered a major piece of a potential trade involving Cliff Lee, it was surprising to see the Twins deal him for two months of Matt Capps. It was also unexpected to see Capps already named closer over incumbent Jon Rauch. Let the Drew Storen era commence in Washington… J.J. Putz entered Thursday with a 27 inning scoreless streak and a 43:6 K:BB ratio...Go ahead and grab Michael Wuertz and/or Craig Breslow asap.
Cool story. I hope we get to find out how she does in high school.
Evan Longoria homered Wednesday for just the sixth time since May 15. Since he's also recorded 14 steals and is on pace to finish with 106 runs scored and 107 RBI while hitting .294, it's not like he's been some huge fantasy bust. Still, I personally had high hopes entering the year, drafting him as high as sixth overall in a couple of high stakes leagues. I felt smart when he entered that fateful May 15, batting .326 with nine homers, 32 runs scored and 31 RBI over 35 games played. Not so much now. Still, this is obviously a small sample, and assuming he's not fighting through a hidden injury, it's hardly worth worrying about the 24-year-old Longoria. But I did expect more than two homers in June and three in July.
New "Menomena" came out this week, with a new "Arcade Fire" soon to follow. Yes, I'm excited. This year has been unbelievably good in the music world.
Like a lot of stats, "run support" is flawed (and this is just one variable that goes into the "win" statistic, the most flawed of them all). For example, Francisco Liriano has received 5.37 runs per nine innings from Minnesota this season when he was on the mound, good for 32nd in baseball. A whopping 17 of those runs (77 total) came during his last start, which means one outing has completely masked a starter who experienced an extreme amount of bad luck when it comes to run support this season. In fact, to illustrate just how random this stat is, Liriano has two teammates who have actually benefited greatly from run support this season (Nick Blackburn has received the second best RS in the A.L., while Kevin Slowey has been given the seventh best RS in the Junior Circuit, and neither has experienced a crazy 17-run outburst).
Check out my latest podcast over at BlogTalkRadio (you can also download or subscribe to it at iTunes), featuring Jeff Erickson and Yahoo's Scott Pianowski.
While he ultimately ended up on none of my teams, I had no problem with those who drafted Joe Mauer aggressively entering this season. After all, he hit .365 with 28 homers, 94 runs scored and 96 RBI last season as a catcher. That's just plain silly. Even a reasonable facsimile of that production from the C spot would make him a top-three if not the most valuable fantasy player in most years. As for 2010, with six homers, he definitely hasn't been worth his ADP, although since he's on pace to finish with 92 runs scored and 83 RBI from the scarcest position in baseball, he hasn't exactly been a major bust either. Still, Mauer makes for such an interesting case study. Some could point to how 11 of his homers last year qualified as "just enough" according to hittrackeronline, yet who could have predicted that the new Target Field would play as the single toughest park to hit home runs in this season? Mauer is striking out less than he did last season (10.2|PERCENT| compared to 12.0|PERCENT|) while hitting more line drives (22.6|PERCENT| compared to 24.2|PERCENT|) and currently has a 35:38 K:BB ratio, so his .310 BA should improve (and maybe even significantly) from here on out. Still, Mauer is most certainly playing through pain, which highlights an important point – catchers should quite possibly be viewed almost like pitchers moving forward – as they are far more injury risks than other position players. Even if catchers are able to stay in the lineup, their performance at the plate is often affected by maladies, even if we as fantasy owners are unaware of them.