We held the first of several summer mocks leading into the start of the regular season on Thursday at Mock Draft Central. The draft included representatives from Yahoo, Sports Illustrated and NFL.com (among others) and the full results are available here.
I had the eighth overall selection this week, picking in the middle of each round with our 14-team, PPR (one point per reception) format. The scoring was very standard otherwise, with four points for passing TD, six points for rushing/receiving TD, 25 passing yards yielding one point and 10 rushing/receiving yards yielding one point. The starting spots were 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex, 1 K, 1 D and six bench spots.
Here's how my team turned out:
Michael Turner, RB, ATL (1.8) – I realize that Turner is far from a reliable pass-catching option, but with Andre Johnson already off the board and some doubts as to just how well Larry Fitzgerald will weather the change at quarterback from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart, this was the obvious direction. If you're not using the RotoWire In-Draft Software or customizable projections for your draft, you're at a disadvantage. Based on this particular scoring format, there were only six running backs projected to score 300 or more points this season, and Turner was the last one left on the board. Conversely, there were four other receivers projected within 10 points of Fitzgerald's total, so I was in a good position to wait on a top receiver.
Miles Austin, WR, DAL (2.7) – If he's the high volume No. 1 receiver we've projected him to be, Austin is an excellent mid second-round pick. Rookie Dez Bryant will hurt Roy Williams more than Austin or tight end Jason Witten and while I would have liked the opportunity to land Calvin Johnson here, he went off the board three picks before my turn.
Steve Smith, WR, CAR (3.8) – After a run of four straight selections from the receiver spot at the wheel between rounds two and three, I was afraid of the possibility of having to dig a little deeper for my No. 2 receiver. Instead, I landed a potential top-10 wideout in Smith. With Matt Moore at quarterback over the last four games last season, Smith averaged more than 90 yards per game while finding the end zone three times. He's been productive with worse quarterback situations and with little to no help on the other side of the field or at the tight-end spot in recent seasons, and I doubt his broken arm will keep him out of action once the regular season begins.
Tom Brady, QB, NE (4.7) – In a 14-team league, I love to have one of the top-five quarterbacks on my roster. Plenty of consideration for Tony Romo here, but count me among those who believe that too many people are sleeping on the Pats this season. For me, the difference is floor. I think Brady's floor is higher than Romo's, and while there may be some fantasy owners concerned about his two matchups against the Jets, consider that he went 28-for-41 with 310 yards and a touchdown (98.6 passer rating) the second time he faced them last season.
Robert Meachem, WR, NO (5.8) – More receivers began peeling off the board including Pierre Garcon (5.2), Donald Driver (5.4) and Wes Welker (5.7). The Saints' way of spreading the ball around leads to a downgrade of their wideouts in PPR formats, simply because there isn't much volume to go around when Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey are all viable options for Drew Brees as well. As you'll see in his 2010 outlook, Meachem matched Colston's numbers in the second half of last season, and even caught three more TD passes during that span.
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF (6.7) – I've been putting a lot of stock in Jackson to this point in the summer, and I don't think I'm going to slow down anytime soon. Clearly, I think he's undervalued and projected much lower than he should be, and the concerns about him seem to focus on the presence of rookie C.J. Spiller. The two backs complement each other well and the Bills' passing attack looks bleak at best heading into training camp, so there should be plenty of touches to go around regardless of who becomes the starter under new head coach Chan Gailey. In many ways, Jackson was a poor owner's Steven Jackson last season, chewing up plenty of yardage, catching a lot of passes, and simply struggling to find the end zone because of the lack of talent around him.
Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE (7.8) – In an ideal situation, I would like to own Hardesty and Jerome Harrison just because the Browns' backfield is more intriguing than you think. The new front-office regime seems to be committed to the rookie, as he's been running ahead of Harrison is OTAs after being drafted in April. Running for 1,647 yards and 14 touchdowns in the SEC as a senior at Tennessee, Hardesty's transition to the NFL could be a very smooth one.
Kellen Winslow, TE, TAM (8.7) – Sure, the Bucs are rebuilding their receiving corps and I'm very high on Arrelious Benn in the long run (if you saw him play at Illinois, there's plenty to suggest that Juice Williams' ineffectiveness was simply too much for him to overcome), but young quarterback Josh Freeman is going to lean heavily on his big target in the middle of the field this season. Health permitting, another 80-catch campaign should be on the horizon. Further, Winslow projects as the fourth-best tight end in the league for this type of PPR format.
Antonio Bryant, WR, CIN (9.8) – The running joke in the chat window after this pick was that Bryant is a great value play this year because he puts up huge numbers in even-numbered years. Chris Liss' interview with Chad Ochocinco a couple of weeks ago revealed that the Bengals are going to rely heavily on Cedric Benson and their running game again this season. Further, Bryant has caught more passes (122) and averaged more yards per game (63.7) than Lee Evans over the last two seasons, so he's been more productive than you might think. As a fourth receiver on my roster, I'll take my chances on a rebound as he moves into a more stable offense from the debacle in Tampa Bay last season.
Derrick Ward, RB, TAM (10.7) – Was there a 2009 Tampa Bay Bucs media guide on my desk during the draft? No. Truth be told, I think that Ward is going to need a Cadillac Williams injury to get more than 8-10 touches on a weekly basis. As great of a story as Williams' comeback is, Ward is a pretty good speculative pick in the later rounds because of Williams' injury history. It's highly unlikely that the Bucs' line in 2010 will be anything close to as good as the Giants' line in 2007 and 2008 (Ward averaged over 5.0 YPC as a Giant), but he could be a surprisingly productive receiver out of the backfield and a useful option near the goal line if the opportunity arises.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, BUF (11.8) – I'm in the camp believing that Lynch will be traded during training camp when another team decides to bring in more competition at running back – or – tries to replace an injured starter. Sitting third on the Bills' depth chart makes him irrelevant unless something big happens. At 24, he's still young and 650 NFL carries is a very low odometer reading for a former first-round pick. Keep in mind that Lynch was 15th in running back scoring (188.7 points) just two seasons ago.
Bernard Scott, RB, CIN (12.7) – Scott may not have the ideal build to shoulder the workload of an NFL starter, but to say that the Bengals ran Cedric Benson hard last season is an understatement.
Laurent Robinson, WR, STL (13.8) – This late, I'm looking to catch lightning in a bottle. Robinson has good speed and plays for a rebuilding team with a poor defense. Think the Rams may have to air it out during the second half on a weekly basis?
Philly Defense (14.7) – I like consistency in my defense. The Eagles have been an elite one in each of the last two seasons and there's been little change with the personnel during the offseason.
Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ (15.8) – The Jets aren't going to turn into the Saints or Packers anytime soon, but Sanchez should be an efficient game manager in his second season. I plan on starting Brady on a weekly basis, so his only action on this squad will be Week 5 against Minnesota barring an injury.
David Akers, K, PHI (16.7) – Akers has finished in the top-three in fantasy points in each of the last two seasons. If the Eagles' offense slips under Kevin Kolb, I'll look elsewhere.
Final Roster
QB – Tom Brady
QB – Mark Sanchez
RB – Michael Turner
RB – Fred Jackson
RB – Montario Hardesty
RB – Derrick Ward
RB – Marshawn Lynch
RB – Bernard Scott
WR – Miles Austin
WR – Steve Smith (CAR)
WR – Robert Meachem
WR – Antonio Bryant
WR – Laurent Robinson
TE – Kellen Winslow
K – David Akers
D – Flipadelphia