Not so fast. Cliff Lee isn't headed to the Yankees after all.
In my previous blog about Cliff Lee heading to the Yankees for star catching prospect Jesus Montero and infielder David Adams, I indicated the possibility the trade might blow up. It did. I've seen it happen before. Something inside made me include that caution in my blog. I just had a feeling this wasn't a done deal. The little guy inside me was screaming Wait Wait---Not So Fast!
When I was a scout with Houston we thought we had a deal in place with an American League club. It was set to be announced and things changed. That happens. It happens more than gets reported. In this case, we are being told that David Adams has a bad ankle and that's what caused Seattle to put on the brakes with the Yankees. Could it have been that Texas offered more at the 11th hour? Unless we were in the room we won't ever know. What we do know is that the Yankees can't be too happy.
When the dust settles, Cliff Lee will be pitching for the pitching rich Texas Rangers in the American League West. He will certainly help them get to the playoffs. He may help them get to the World Series. That's yet to be seen. We do know that Texas now has a true #1 starter and an outstanding bullpen to close down games. The pen just got better because, Mark Lowe came in the same deal with Lee. He's not too shabby either.
The Rangers gave up promising first baseman Justin Smoak and promising right-handed starting pitcher Blake Beavan along with second baseman Matt Lawson and right-handed pitcher Josh Lueke. Smoak is the centerpiece of the deal. He takes over first base on a permanent basis and relegates Russell Branyan to designated hitter duties, where he fits nicely. It seems that Beavan should slip into the starting rotation for the Mariners. If not immediately, then soon.
Beavan is a 21 year old righty with a huge upside. Speaking of huge-he's 6'7" and weighs 250 pounds. That's huge. He is 10-5 at AA Frisco with a 2.78 ERA. He has walked 12 and struck out 68 to date. If you seek a major league ready starter, Beavan could be your man. I don't believe Lueke and Lawson are as advanced in their careers as Beavan, but they are good prospects.
Of the two deals, I beleive Seattle would have been better off with Montero. They would have filled an organizationally weak position for years to come. Montero, as I indicated in my previous blog about Lee is getting better behind the plate. I really believe he'll be a middle of the order hitter for years to come. Smoak may very well be an impact hitter as well. Time will tell with both players.
Yes, Smoak is a major prospect and one we have discussed in my writings for Rotowire on many occasions. I think he's a very good hitter with power. Power is intoxicating. Power certainly wins baseball games. But. As I look around I see teams with depth at the first base position in their minor league organizations. I don't see as much depth at catcher. I see lots of great looking catching prospects, but they don't all pan out. I give you Taylor Teagarden and Jarrod Saltalamacchia They should be in Texas by now. Same with Max Ramirez. Lou Marson was an above average prospect with Cleveland and he never did hit in the big leagues. Catching is a tough, tough position to play. So much is required defensively that it has an impact upon one's offense. Montero is a major, major prospect. But so is Smoak. I like Smoak and the Mariners made a good deal. I really like Montero a little more for the M's, that's all I'm sayin.
The tipping point may have been Beavan. He can slip into the rotation without the Mariners having to dip into their own prospect pool sooner than they wished to fill out the rotation.
This certainly further alters the balance of power in the West further to the Rangers. The Angels are in greater risk of losing their once dominant position. They may have to make a move or two of their own to catch up. The Angels need a first baseman but it was Seattle that went and got one. The Angels could have used Cliff Lee. They have the minor league position players to trade, but not the pitching or first basemen to match up with Texas in any trade with Seattle. But the Angels have to be on the prowl to shore up their lineup and their pitching staff. With the Reds still loaded with prospects and the Twins and Yankees still in the hunt for that player or players to put them over the top, this could be the beginning of multiple deals in the coming weeks.
Something made me feel the Lee deal to the Yankees wasn't final. I guess it was the aggressive approach of the Texas Rangers that made the Mariners think twice. This time it's a done deal. Cliff Lee will be pitching in Texas. And I still trust the little voice inside me.