World Cup: Rain on Spain, Revisited

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Published on July 8, 2010

As I've likely mentioned a thousand times, I currently come at sports from a betting angle. Before the tournament started, I posted that I took in a lot of bets on Spain to win the World Cup at +400 to +450. I thought this price was ridiculously low. The rationale was here:

https://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/The-rain-for-Spain-is-mainly-just-insane-BBD2114.htm

Well, Spain's in the finals. Am I laughing or crying?

Diligent about following my strategy, I pushed the money out at every opportunity. Here's what I got:

Spain to qualify from group: 1/20 (parlay factor: 1.05)
Spain to advance past Portugal: -190 (parlay factor: 1.52)
Spain to advance past Paraguay: -400 (parlay factor: 1.25)
Spain to advance past Germany: -111 (parlay factor 1.90)
Spain to lift the trophy over Holland: -172 (parlay factor 1.58)

Taking in bets at +400 to +450 and laying them off at +498 isn't fantastic, but it's a living.

I thought I'd be doing much better, actually. I estimated +670, and would have been satisfied with +600. Where did my calculations go off the rails?

The first stop is Portugal. I thought Spain would be -150, not -190. I thought Portugal would be stronger—and just maybe strong enough to win the group and set Spain up vs. Brazil in the round of 16.

I'm not really upset that Spain played Paraguay. There are always going to be surprises. And quite honestly the price I got vs. Germany was more than I deserved.

But this Holland price is low. I really think Spain should only be -140 or so here. I made a few calls, and there is a LOT of Spain money on the books so that price has started -170 or worse.

I could wait, and hope it gets better should bettors come in for Holland. Except, well, I can't. I already loaded to boat on Holland in my own account at 12/1 before the tournament started. If I hold these Spain futures, I'm tripling my risk, and I can't afford to do that now. I don't have a full-time job (offers welcome!), so I don't have the gonads to take even more risk on Holland. I'm pushing out all the Spain tickets, and a little bit more to guarantee some sort of profit.

If you want my advice, take Holland +0.5 or plus "quarter-ball" in the final on 90 minutes' play. Spain should be favoured, but not by this much. That said, personal circumstances dictate that I won't be joining you, as I already have too much risk on the match, and need to bail water.