Friday's crushing 0-5 pushed me to the sidelines for the holiday weekend, probably a -EV decision, as just eyeballing the lines it seems I would have done fairly well, especially on totals. Since no local bookie or major casino cashes "but I would have made these bets," it's a pretty useless point. Only cash plays.

It's like a locomotive running through your stomach. A real gut shot...

Cincinnati +177, one unit. The matchup of Johan Santana and the flyball-happy Reds is either going to go very well or very poorly, and the +177 number seems too high given the chance at the latter.

Toronto +123, one unit. Fading Carl Pavano starting...now.

Baltimore +176, one unit. I'll continue to take Jake Arrieta at big numbers. The Orioles have got to have some value in a lot of spots. The core talent is too good for them to be this bad.

Los Angeles (AL) -108, two units. "Who's not an All-Star?"

Oakland +138, three units. Trevor Cahill. Throw out the first start he had no business making and he has a 2.22 ERA with nine quality starts and a couple of near-misses.