Fantasy owners who went with a "last year's bums" strategy and held their nose when drafting Alex Rios are certainly not complaining. After disappointing in Toronto last season, resulting in the Blue Jays giving away his contract to the White Sox, Rios was even worse in Chicago, posting a .199/.229/.301 line over 146 at-bats. But even when dreadful, he still managed 17 homers and 24 steals, remaining plenty useful in fantasy terms. There's little doubt he's playing over his head, but Rios is striking out far less frequently than usual, and his current .305 BABIP is actually well below his career mark (.323), so some huge regression isn't necessarily in store. Ozzie Guillen loves to run, and since Rios has been caught during just three of his 17 SB attempts, a career-high in steals isn't out of the question. He's now hitting in a terrific hitter's park and has recently been moved to the No. 3 spot in the lineup. He's still just 29 years old, so a 30/30 season can't be ruled out, and since he's also fantastic defensively, that contract suddenly doesn't look so bad.
If it weren't for bad luck, Mark Prior wouldn't have any luck at all.
Steve Phillips really outdid himself this week, first writing this piece about plebeians knowing nothing about what it takes to be a baseball GM, and in turn, further proved the point he set out specifically to reject. But that was nothing compared to when Phillips subsequently appeared on the Mike Francesa show and said he'd trade Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt straight up if he were running the Nationals. Oswalt is quietly having a great season, but he's owed $32 million over the next two years and might retire afterward. Strasburg, meanwhile, has a 0.99 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP with 54 strikeouts over 45.1 innings in Double and Triple-A as a 21-year-old. He's not only more affordable (four-year deal worth $15.1 million), but he's going to draw more fans to Washington than Oswalt ever could. Plus, I haven't hyped him nearly enough recently (did you know Strasburg once visited the Virgin Islands, and since he left they have been called just The Islands? He makes the Dos Equis guy seem dull.) Only $16,000? Seems like a steal to me. For what it's worth, Baseball America recently ranked Strasburg as the best at-the-time-of-the-draft prospect since 1989 (the year the writer joined BA), and Bryce Harper, who just went 6-for-6 with four homers and 10 RBI in a win Saturday that advanced his team to the NJCAA World Series final, came in at No. 15 on that list. Think the Nationals chose the right time to have the No. 1 pick in back-to-back drafts?
What Elvis Andrus did as a 20-year-old rookie last season suggested he'd eventually become a star, and his play so far as a sophomore has only confirmed that. Andrus is taking a bunch of walks (.402 OBP), giving him plenty of opportunities to use his speed (17 steals already), and while more power would be nice, he's now hitting atop a strong Rangers' lineup and in a highly favorable hitter's park. Add in his terrific defense at shortstop, and Andrus is already one of the more valuable commodities in baseball - both in real life and in fantasy leagues.
Lastings Milledge is still just 25 years old, so he obviously can't be written off, but at some point, he should be considered a bust until proven otherwise. Given regular at-bats with no pressure to perform in 2010, his current line sits at .264/.331/.338. He's still searching for his first home run this season, and his career SB rate is an abysmal 66.6|PERCENT|. He's also awful defensively. Milledge's biggest criticism throughout his career has been his "character," but right now, his on-field actions are far more concerning.
It's tough to separate Buzz Bissinger from his insane appearance on "Costas Now," but I liked his insight regarding the LeBron James situation. Speaking of which, how crazy is this Delonte West rumor? Is it wrong that I choose to believe it?
David Ortiz is becoming one tough player to gauge. He entered June 6 last season with just one home run on the year. He then proceeded to hit more homers than any other player in baseball from then on. This year he ended April with just one homer and a disgusting .143/.238/.286 slash line. I kept his carcass in my Yahoo! Friends & Family league as my corner infielder for some reason nevertheless, but even the most optimistic Ortiz fan couldn't have predicted his OPS rising nearly 375 points over the next 19 games. During May, Big Papi has hit nine homers with 23 RBI. He's still striking out in nearly one third of his at-bats, and he's worthless against left-handers, but this is another reminder not to write obituaries about players 34 years old. And with his current line at Fenway being so poor (.213/.258/.410), there's room for even more optimism considering he's yet to take advantage of a favorable home park for hitter's. It's easy to say this now, but random scouting reports like "can't turn on a fastball…he's lost his bat speed" are just so anecdotal it's not worth paying attention to the next time an older player is slumping and that's the reasoning why.
I recorded a podcast with Jeff Erickson on Wednesday, and this was the result.
Over his last four starts, Mat Latos has posted a 0.93 ERA and a decent 0.55 WHIP, with a 25:3 K:BB ratio for good measure. The dominant four-start span has come against a schedule that's about as easy as it gets (@Hou, @SF, SF, @Sea), and he's been pretty lucky so far this year (.240 BABIP, 79.7 LOB|PERCENT|). Still, his control has been great (1.95 BB/9), and he's really improved his groundball rate, and his current xFIP (3.80) is hardly bad. Latos' fastball and slider are both plus pitches, and his changeup is quickly developing into one as well. Latos is 22 years old and will experience ups and downs like most young pitchers, but with Petco Park, the NL West and a defense that has performed as well as any team in baseball so far all working to his advantage, he's more of a "hold" than a "sell-high."
Max Scherzer has a 17:2 K:BB ratio over 15.0 innings since getting sent down to Triple-A. He needs to be stashed in all but the shallowest leagues.
Brandon Morrow's 11.7 K/9 rate leads major league baseball by a wide margin. He somehow has a 6.66 ERA and 1.70 WHIP despite this. It's partially his own fault (his 5.76 BB/9 is third worst in MLB) but also due to some awful luck (his .399 BABIP is second highest in baseball). He entered Wednesday's start with a fine 3.86 xFIP, so Morrow definitely belongs on the fantasy radar – remember, he was a top-five pick back in 2006 (when Seattle chose him over local product Tim Lincecum). The stuff is clearly there – his average fastball velocity is 93.7 mph and his slider is 87.5 mph – so if he can make even a modest improvement in control and have the luck factor regress, there's major potential here, although pitching in the AL East sure is difficult.
During a 1-0 game in the ninth inning Saturday, Edgar Renteria "stole" second base with two outs, only the ruling was "fielder's indifference." Really, the A's didn't care that the tying run moved from first base to second? One of the more curious rulings I've ever seen.
Thoughts on the "Lost" finale? I actually loved the final season and most of the last episode, but to me, the conclusion was beyond disappointing. It actually made me kind of mad.
I have no clue what to make of Jose Bautista. As someone approaching 30 years old with a career line of .239/.332/.416, he clearly looks like an obvious "sell-high" call, especially when you consider his unsustainable 22.1|PERCENT| HR/FB rate (career mark is 11.6|PERCENT|). But what makes his case more interesting is the fact Bautista hit 10 homers over the final 30 games last season. In fact, since early September, he leads major league baseball in homers by a wide margin. One could point to his low BABIP (.226) as a sign his BA will shoot up, but really, that's more of a reflection of how many of his balls in play are leaving the fence. Shopping him still feels like the right move, but in reality, with his track record, my guess is Bautista remains a tough sell, so might as well ride him out and see how this crazy story concludes.