Thirty days into the season, we're as close to even as you could possibly expect, a game under .500 by record and a rounding error above par by units. The month wasn't a total waste--I'm learning things, I'm mostly enjoying the process and I really like that we're generating discussions in the comments of these posts--but the goal here is to beat the books, not just play even to them, so let's hope for better decisions going forward.
I was away from my Extra Innings last night, so I don't have too much to say about these games:
Atlanta -107. Livan Hernandez now has 13 walks, 11 strikeouts, and a 0.99 ERA. I can just barely see the 17-unit bet fading him at a silly -115 emerging on the horizon...
Philadelphia -106. Thanks, Chooch. More on this game below.
Houston -115. Holy god, the Astros suck. How about Michael Bourn, the only Astro doing anything at the plate, sacrificing in the seventh last night so that Jeff Keppinger and Nonwalking Dead could make outs behind him? The Astros have scored 11 runs in Roy Oswalt's six starts.
Minnesota -132. Both Ron Gardenhire and Charlie Manuel tried to let their starters protect one-run leads in the ninth last night, and both got burnt, although both managers saw their teams go on to win the game. Results aside, I liked both decisions (although I might have taken out Hamels for Yadier Molina's AB). The reflexive relief of effective, non-tired starters in favor of closers who aren't always clearly better pitchers is one of the least attractive aspects of the closercentric bullpen. Sometimes, leaving in an effective pitcher is as good an idea, even better than, bringing in the closer. i don't expect this to become a trend, but if it happened 10|PERCENT| more often than it does, it'd be a good thing.
Dontrelle Willis has a 23.6|PERCENT| line-drive rate, a 6.9|PERCENT| HR/FB, throws strikes less than half the time and has done all this against a below-average pool of opposing hitters. I'm incredibly excited about where this relationship is headed.
Oakland -101. Just barely.
Today:
Toronto +107, one unit. Brandon Morrow has three straight quality starts and more than a strikeout per inning on the season. Fausto Carmona has one more strikeout than walk. I've been on the Indians more than a few times because of their lefty bats, so consider this one of the first bets that's a full adjustment to 2010 data.
Oakland +122, one unit. I think Colby Lewis is real, and I'm not fading him. This is me saying that Trevor Cahill is as good, maybe better, and that the Rangers and A's are basically even otherwise.
Chicago (NL)/Pittsburgh over 9 (-110), 1.5 units. Primarily a fade of two bad bullpens and so-so defenses in a pretty good hitters' park. The number seems low unless you think Ted Lilly is just that good.
Houston -105, one unit. I can't help myself. Rodrigo Lopez on the road with a mediocre team is a pick 'em?
Colorado +118, one unit. Better team, and I think the better starter. The Rockies and Padres have almost the same run differential despite the standings gap.