My Tuesdays tend to get away from me. Here's a quick recap of yesterday:
Washington/Chicago over 8 (-105). Carlos Silva pitched better than expected, again, and the two bullpens chipped in with some good work.
A commenter asked if I had a preference for overs versus unders. I don't think I do; I commented on that piece that I think it's easier to find pitchers who are overrated by linesmakers, due to recent performance, than underrated. Thinking on it more, I suspect I sometimes treat overs as a proxy bet on a side to get better odds. Rather than bet a side at -165 I'll take the total at -110 because I think the game will most likely be a strong win for the favorite, but I'm not comfortable laying the bigger number. I also suspect the combination of bad starter/bad bullpen is more common than the converse. Many of my over bets are fades of a team's, or both teams', .bullpen.
One thing that isn't a consideration is overs being "more fun." Frankly, given the preponderance of Nationals and Reds games in my mix, I'm not watching these as much as you might think.
Colorado -101. Dan Haren pitched well, Jason Hammel didn't. The latter is now off to the DL.
Jeff Erickson asked me today if the Rockies' needing to go to the well for rookie starters will create value in their lines. I suspect it will, as those starters are still going to be supported by a strong defense, good offense and credible bullpen. The dropoff from Hammel to Chacin isn't much (I'm less excited about losing de la Rosa, for a number of reasons).
San Francisco +135. Pretty much as hoped, with Jonathan Sanchez pitching well and the Giants picking away at Roy Halladay, who maybe, just maybe, won't win 30 games.
Tonight:
Toronto -104, one unit. Shawn Marcum has been very strong this year in his comeback from injury, with excellent command. These aren't the Red Sox who started the season, 13 runs last night notwithstanding. This line hasn't adjusted enough for that change.
Detroit -104, one unit. Not completely sold on the Francisco Liriano Experience yet, so this is me taking the better pitcher at home. The Tigers being a bit righty-heavy is a small factor as well.
Oakland/Tampa Bay under 8.5 (-108), one unit. An already mediocre A's team is now down its best OBP and facing a very good pitcher on the road. Ben Sheets has three consecutive quality starts, and he's even struck out more than he's walked in two of them.
Washington/Chicago over 8 (-110), one unit. The starters are actually a bit worse than they were last night, in aggregate. It was the right play last night and is the right one tonight.
Seattle +180, .5 units. The Royals shouldn't be this big a favorite over UW, much less the Mariners. A straight fade of a bad team with an awful bullpen.