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Chris Coghlan Understands Small Sample Sizes

Like clockwork, us fantasy experts preach patience at this time of year. With only a week's worth of stats to go on, it's easy to jump to conclusions and make rash decisions. In this week's Charging the Mound Jeff Erickson related the story of an owner who dumped Carlos Zambrano for Dallas Braden. Ouch.

But just in case you don't want to take our word for it, listen to a real professional: Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, who's hitting a robust .152 so far.

"Everybody goes through these spurts. It's just a matter of it being the first six games and not game 50 through 56."

He's exactly right. Obviously with a younger player (like Coghlan, or Julio Borbon, for instance) there's less of a track record for success and no established baseline of performance, but making fantasy roster decisions based on one week's worth of evidence is only slightly less crazy than making roster decisions based on three weeks worth of spring training. Injuries or demotions notwithstanding, if a guy earned a spot on your roster prior to Opening Day, he's still earned it on April 15th.

The decisions you made at your auction or draft table were made with the long view in mind. One or two weeks doesn't invalidate a six month projection. Stay frosty.