Well, that was fun. Recap:

Washington +183. The Phillies kicked the hell out of John Lannan.

Cincinnati +130. The Cardinals kicked the hell out of Aaron Harang. Late attempts at a comeback were snuffed out by Orlando Cabrera and Ramon Hernandez. Veteran leadership!

Short slate today, which won't always mean limited selections, but does today. All picks one unit unless otherwise stated. Remember, the idea is to see whether someone steeped in performance analysis can apply these thought process to beat the books over the course of the season. Do we know better than they do? Do we know better enough times to turn a profit? Remember, this isn't the NFL or NBA, where you have to hit 53|PERCENT| to win. Baseball's odds mean you can do better at a lower win rate if you're finding the right prices in the right situations.

Houston -123. There's a huge gap between Wandy Rodriguez and Barry Zito that isn't reflected in this line. Rodriguez has outpitched Zito by about a run-and-a-half the last two years, as measured by FIP. Zito was better in third year of his contract than he was in his first two; he's a also a left-handed flyball pitcher in a terrible park for his skills against an Astros team that is built to do basically one thing in Lance Berkman's absence: pepper the Crawford Boxes.

Colorado +150. The Rockies should have been here yesterday, and will likely show up a lot. until the oddsmakers catch on. I have them as the best  team in the National League. Tonight they face Randy Wolf, one of the least-sensible FA signings of the winter. This is a mostly a better-team decision; Greg Smith is a wild card, getting the start in place of the injured Jeff Francis off a 2009 season marred by injuries. Fading the Brewers against a middling left-handed starter is a marginal call--they will hammer lefties--but we'll list it due to the nice price on the better team.