Almost exactly a year ago I wrote about how similar Anthony and Durant looked through their first two seasons, and how it was funny that Durant was considered the "Future" while Anthony had become a forgotten man.
Well, this year Melo is no longer forgotten. After helping lead the Nuggets to a Western Conference Finals appearance a year ago and building upon that this season, Melo has been on the short list of MVP candidates all year. Despite Melo's rise, though, he has still been overshadowed by the explosion of the Future.
Both David Thorpe from ESPN (Insider required) and Dave Berri from Wages of Wins have recently written comparisons between Anthony and Durant, concluding that Durant in year three has already become a better player than Anthony is now in his seventh season. But when we look at their third seasons, the difference between them doesn't appear to be in their scoring. In year 3 Durant is averaging 27 points per 36 minutes on 47.7|PERCENT| shooting from the field while Anthony averaged 26 points per 36 minutes on 48.1|PERCENT| shooting from the field. Still essentially the same...at least on first glance. So, where is the difference?
Ironically, Thorpe touched on the difference in his title but didn't quite nail it. Thorpe wanted to concentrate on Melo and Durant without including LeBron James, so he said he was writing about the two best "pure" small forwards in the league. The thing is, Durant isn't a pure small forward. Melo is, but Durant is an outlier. And that's what makes him special.
Anthony has almost prototype size for a small forward at 6-8. He is stocky and strong, but essentially he is a pure small forward. Durant, on the other hand, is 6-10 with mantis-like arms (7-5 wingspan). As such, he has length advantages even when compared to power forwards and some centers. In his first 1.5 seasons Durant was so slim that he couldn't take full advantage of his length, but as he has grown into his body he now is starting to have an impact on the glass and on the defensive end that Anthony never has. When you go back to their third season comparison, you see that Durant has a higher rebound rate, blocked shot rate, and steal percentage than Anthony and he also does much better in defensive rating and defensive win shares. While none of these defensive stats are perfect, they all tell the same story: Durant can impact the game with his length in ways other than scoring that Anthony at 6-8 just can't.
The other way that Durant is an outlier is with his shooting range. Again, Anthony is more of a prototype small forward in the way that he scores. He has an excellent mid-range game, can operate well out of the post, and has consistent shooting range out to about 20 feet. Durant, on the other hand, has a pure shooting stroke out to about 25 or 30 feet. His ability to drain threes almost as soon as he passes half-court, in conjunction with his ball-handling ability and length in the paint, gives him a scoring repertoire rarely seen. If we re-visit their third year scoring numbers with this in mind, we can start to see separation even here. While Anthony shot a slightly higher field goal percentage, Durant has a higher EFG percentage (51.4|PERCENT| to 49.3|PERCENT|) and a much higher true shooting percentage (60.1|PERCENT| to 56.3|PERCENT|). The difference in EFG percentage is all tied into Durant's three-point shooting, and the true shooting difference encompasses both the treys and the fact that Durant is able to get to the line more often and convert at a higher rate.
Carmelo Anthony is an excellent pure small forward. He can make a huge impact on games. But when it comes to changing the game, making a transcendent impact on the game itself, Anthony just doesn't have the physical gifts to do it. Durant, though, is an outlier. And as such, he has the chance to be a player that in 20 years we're telling the next generation about.