First off, I can't pick a winner against the spread to save my life this postseason - I'm 1-9 so far. Honestly, none of the results has been surprising to me - I'm just choosing between two competing story lines, both of which I find valid, and picking the wrong one. Consistently. If you want to fade my pick in the Super Bowl, you'll be betting the Saints as I don't think I can go against the Colts who have been so much more consistent than New Orleans.
I made a moneyline bet on the Jets this weekend and was feeling pretty good about it up 17-6 in the second quarter. But like someone who solves a Sudoku puzzle, Peyton Manning got the key breakthrough during the last drive of the second quarter, and filled in the rest of the squares with ease in the second half. To see Manning dominate the best defense in the league that easily reminded me what separates him from Philip Rivers and Drew Brees (both of whom had better stats this year): his ability to adapt and play his best even in adverse circumstances. There are a dozen quarterbacks who can put up huge numbers when conditions are good, but taking apart the best defense in the league down 11 in the conference title game takes unique greatness.
One would think the Jets are set up well for next year with Mark Sanchez improving a lot in the playoffs, a great offensive line, Darrelle Revis and a great defensive head coach. But the AFC is stacked with promising teams from Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, New England, Miami, Houston, Tennessee and, of course, the Colts. And as great as Revis has been this year, shutdown corners don't typically remain that way for very long. Last year Nnamdi Asomugha was considered the guy you couldn't start your receivers against, but this season, he faded into the background. Champ Bailey was once that guy, too. Even Lito Sheppard, the Jets corner other teams picked on before he was demoted from the starting lineup Sunday, was a two-time Pro Bowler and is still just 28 years old. Revis will probably still be great (and apparently he's an expert at reading the body language of receivers and reacting immediately). But 2009 could very well be his peak.
Brett Favre played well (other than the last interception) given all the hits he took, and even that wasn't the end of the world given the team was 56 yards from a FG, and there was no benefit to punting on 4th down. The Vikings should have been more aggressive in trying to get closer, but asking Brad Childress to display courage in a big spot is kind of like asking Norv Turner to hit on 16 against a 10 in blackjack. It's not in his nature.
For such a high-stakes game, it sure seemed like neither team wanted to win with the Vikings fumbling so often and the Saints rarely taking much advantage. The game was filled with drama, but it wasn't played at a high level, so it was hardly a great one.
Adrian Peterson's fumbling has always been a problem, but in a game of this magnitude, it's a crisis. Tiki Barber had a similar problem for much of his career before Tom Coughlin helped him permanently correct it, and one wonders why the Vikings haven't done the same. Most backs just lose their jobs when they can't hold onto the ball but because Peterson (like Barber) is too valuable to bench, the team must make sure he corrects it. Preferably before it plays its next NFC title game - assuming it ever does with Peterson still on the roster.
The soon-to-be 34 year-old Peyton Manning will be the youngest quarterback the Saints will face in these playoffs. The 40-year old Favre was the most mobile. On the other hand, the Colts have arrived as Super Bowl favorites after beating Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez at home.
Maybe it's because the kicking has been so poor throughout the playoffs, but there was something unusually satisfying about seeing Garrett Hartley absolutely drill the game-winning 40-yard field goal. And I was rooting for the Vikings, who seemed like the better team, mostly because I wanted to see Favre get another shot to win the Super Bowl. I hope whatever happens this offseason, the total joke that is our mainstream media shows him some respect this time around. It seems like it has only two modes: ass-kissing and character assassination.
To reiterate, I'm taking the Colts -5 or 5.5 two weeks from now. Leaning toward under 56, but undecided. Heading to Vegas later today, but at this point, I'm more inclined to invest money at the poker table than ATS.