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Quarterback Inflation

While 2004 saw several quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green) put up historically good passing totals, 2009 had perhaps the deepest roster of productive quarterbacks in the history of the league. A whopping 11 of them averaged 7.7 yards per passing attempt or better. Contrast that with a season as recent as 2002 when only two (Green, Chad Pennington) surpassed that total.

Here are the leaders in YPA this year:

RkPlayerYdsTDIntYPARateSk
1Philip Rivers|STAR|42542898.8104.425
2Ben Roethlisberger432826128.6100.550
3Drew Brees|STAR|438834118.5109.620
4Aaron Rodgers|STAR|44343078.2103.250
5Tony Romo44832698.297.634
6Matt Schaub477029158.298.625
7Donovan McNabb35532210892.935
8Eli Manning402127147.993.130
9Brett Favre|STAR|42023377.9107.234
10Peyton Manning|STAR|+450033167.999.910
11Tom Brady|STAR|439828137.896.216

Of course, this list doesn't include stars like Kurt Warner, up and comers like Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Vince Young or Joe Flacco, or former stars like Carson Palmer. And it's likely the Jets are happy with Mark Sanchez, and the Dolphins and Bucs have high hopes for Chad Henne and Josh Freeman, respectively. And Carolina's Matt Moore averaged 7.6 yards per attempt despite a rocky start.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Brett Favre were to return, that means only 10 teams have poor options under center, and two of those (David Garrard/Kyle Orton) are serviceable.

The eight teams with bad situations are the 49ers (Alex Smith), Redskins (Jason Campbell), Seahawks (Matt Hasselbeck - looks like he's taken the Marc Bulger career path), Rams (Marc Bulger), Raiders (Bruce Gradkowski), Bills (Ryan Fitzpatrick), Chiefs (Matt Cassel) and Browns (Brady Quinn).

Not all of the prospect QBs will pan out, and Warner and Favre might in fact retire. But either way, it shows just how high the bar is at QB these days, and even if a Stafford or a Jimmy Clausen/Sam Bradford develop, you'll need a lot more than that to count on being a contender. A quarterback has to pan out huge these days even to crack the top 10, something even Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler have not done yet.