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From SBS to Sony -- Reflections on Week 1 of the PGA Season

  • Geoff Ogilvy's repeat win at the SBS Championship on January 10 obviously gives him the early lead in FedEx Cup standings, but it also gives him a boost heading into next week's Sony Open. Indeed, the very select field for the SBS, comprising the players who won at least once during the 2009 season, helps each player who entered, by giving the field a week of competition to shake off the rust. If you're pondering who to start among two golfers for the Sony, and one of them played in the SBS, go with that guy instead of the one who's teeing it up for the first time.
  • Along those lines, if you're looking for a guy who played last weekend and who might catch fire at the Sony, I suggest Stewart Cink. He finished T32 in the event last year, 10 shots behind winner Zach Johnson; but he has a ton of confidence now. He strung together rounds of 68-69-69-70 at the SBS to finish six strokes back of Ogilvy.
  • I'd avoid Vijay Singh for a week or two, even though he won the Sony five years ago. This will be his first start since knee surgery in November, and by far the safer thing to do with an injury like that is to wait and see how it affects his swing, specifically his weight shift.
  • Rory Sabbatini's closing 63 (8 pars, 10 birdies) was a wonder to behold, but don't jump on the bandwagon just yet. Every golfer on Tour is capable of finding himself in the zone once in a while, but Sabbatini's career numbers don't paint him as someone who'll be there on a regular basis. He wins about once a year, hits the top 3 a handful of times, and makes about 70|PERCENT| of the cuts. He might turn around the recent slide in his career, but don't expect a breakout year from him.
  • Lucas Glover looked good heading into the final day, but a closing round of 76 sent him from the overnight Saturday lead all the way to 14th place, eight shots back. The field averaged just under 70 strokes per round over the weekend (par was 73, unique among all Tour venues this season), and that 76 was the high round of the entire tournament. Glover's win in a major proves that he can play under pressure, but the very different pressure of a final round collapse might be hard to overcome, at least in the short run. I recommend sitting him for the Sony, to see how he reacts to a disheartening performance like the one we saw on Sunday.
  • Why not engage in the popular game of predicting Tiger Woods's return date? Obviously, only one person is likely to know for sure when Woods will return – although Tim Finchem is no doubt wearing out his speed-dial right now – but Woods predictably ain't talkin'. Speculation is rampant, ranging from a mid-February debut at the AT&T (Tiger loves Pebble Beach, the site of his most dominant win) all the way to next season. But a March 25 return at The Arnie (The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill) makes the most sense here. Woods and Palmer have long been close, and the trip to Bay Hill from Windermere won't exactly give Woods jet lag. No promises on how he'll perform, of course, or how he'll handle the non-golf pressure. But he can only remain a hermit for so long, and getting back onto the course in late March gives him two weeks to get the kinks out before he heads for Augusta.