Wes Welker has caught 112 passes in each of the last two seasons for the Patriots, finishing with 1,175 and 1,165 yards in those respective campaigns despite the adjustment from Tom Brady in 2007 to Matt Cassel in 2008. Now, with Brady back under center, Welker enters the season as our 28th-ranked wide receiver.
Here are Welker's lines from the last two seasons:
2007 - 112 rec. 1,175 yards and 8 TD
2008 - 112 rec. 1,165 yards and 3 TD
(projected)
2009 - 103 rec. 1,080 yards and 4 TD
Let's start by considering Welker's value in a standard league (without PPR bonuses). With 10 yards = 1 point and TD receptions = 6 points, Welker is projected to score 132 fantasy points this season. That would rank him 27th or 28th -- Santonio Holmes is projected for the same number of points -- while we've got Holmes listed ahead of Welker on our cheat sheets.
By comparison, Terrell Owens is our 14th-ranked receiver.
(projected)
2009 - 72 rec. 1,049 yards and 8 TD
More or less, we're talking about a four-TD difference. But those four scores translate into 24 points. A combination of age, likely downgrade in QB, and Dick Jauron's conservative offense in Buffalo have Owens falling out of the top 10 for the first time in recent memory.
In recent drafts on Mock Draft Central, Welker is the 12th receiver coming off the board (ADP = 30.63), a mid third-round pick in a 12-team league, while Owens is currently 14th (33.27), a late third-rounder.
Of course, this format doesn't fairly reward Welker's biggest potential contribution -- recpetions. In PPR leagues, things come out quite a bit differently.
Welker is the 14th-ranked receiver based on RotoWire projections when 1 point is rewarded for each reception, with an otherwise identical score system to the one above. Owens actually slides to 17th, since he's a big-yardage/scorer type instead of the high catch volume slot receiver that Welker is.
In any case, the big debate regarding Welker's value will likely be won or lost in his final TD count this season. It's interesting to note that in 2007, with Brady at the helm, Welker was third in the NFL with 26 red-zone targets. Last season with Cassel, Welker had just 21.
For what it's worth, Randy Moss led the NFL in 2007 with 33 and he finished with 23 last season, so the Patriots were much less prone to throwing in close last season.
If the early mock draft results are any indication, Welker isn't going to slide into a draft position commensurate with our rankings. You may want to consider inching him up toward your top-15, however, if you think that the Patriots are going to return to the aerial attack in close now that Brady is healthy again.