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MLB Thoughts and Observations

Figured I'd take a break from the NFL magazine and put down some random baseball thoughts.

Albert Pujols stole his fifth base yesterday putting him on a pace for about 22. We could be looking at a 45-140-.340 season with 20-plus steals. I doubt he'll ever steal 30, but if he did, he could be the third player in MLB history to post a 40-30-.340 season. The first two both played for Rockies in the mid-'90s. (One, Larry Walker went 49-33-.366, i.e., as great as Pujols is, he'll never match Walker's fantasy output for 1997). Incidentally, Pujols, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez and Grady Sizemore are the only 5-5 players so far this season.

Miguel Cabrera's hitting .378, but slugging just .595. While he has seven homers, he has only three doubles and no triples. Not that you should worry.

Ubaldo Jimenez has given up zero homers in 33 innings and struck out 30. Somehow his ERA is 5.45. (Too many walks, and unlucky BABIP and strand rate).

Evan Longoria has 11 homers and leads the league with 15 doubles. He's only walked 12 times and struck out 29, but who cares when you're hitting .358/.410/.748. Plate discipline is vastly overrated as a fantasy indicator. His BABIP is an unsustainable .398, but the home runs and doubles aren't seeing-eye grounders and bloop hits.

Jon Lester has a 49:13 K:BB ratio in 41.1 IP and an ERA of 6.31. Not even that kind of K:BB ratio can offset eight home runs, a .632 strand rate and a .398 BABIP. Is Lester merely unlucky or also somewhat reckless in pounding the strike zone? The same could be asked about Kevin Slowey who has a 25:2 K:BB ratio and an ERA of 5.50. (six homers allowed, a .380 BABIP, .674 strand). The strand rate is bad luck, and some of the BABIP. But there is a downside to throwing every pitch over the plate.

People were fretting over Mariano Rivera's decreased velocity after he gave up back-to-back home runs for the first time in his career. But not only did Rivera hit 94 on the gun in his next outing, he sports an 18:1 K:BB ratio in 12.1 IP. The four HRs allowed and .396 BABIP puts him a similar boat as Lester and Slowey, though. (Rivera's always been able to get away with throwing strikes because of the movement on his cutter, but if it slows down or moves less, his HR and BABIP will go up. That the Ks are still very high makes it seem like he had one off outing or that a couple pitches got away from him).

If you wonder why baseball teams turned a blind eye to steroid use, consider how the Dodgers have fared since Manny Ramirez was suspended (1-3), after losing their first three home games of the year to the Giants. Baseball is a business like any other, and as long as the bottom line is good, management usually doesn't want to know how the sausage is made. (Wall Street did the same thing with sub-prime loans and credit default swaps).

I feel terrible for Yao Ming and the Rockets, but even if he weren't constantly hurt, Yao isn't a true superstar because teams can deny him the ball so effectively. Once it's in his hands, he's one of the league's elite scorers, as efficient as anyone. But the Rockets have more trouble getting him the ball than I've ever seen any team have with its superstar. And while the Rockets blowout win over the Lakers yesterday was inspiring, the Rockets will go down in six.

Is anyone else annoyed that Tommy Hanson and Matt Wieters are still in the minors, likely until June 1? If the Braves miss the playoffs by a game or two, can their fans sue the team for more money than they save by delaying Hanson's arbitration years?

Whatever his lack of real-life value, it's just not possible to keep Juan Pierre the fantasy player down. He's stolen 40 or more bases for eight straight years, will get 15-20 while Manny is out, and by then, one of the other Dodger outfielders will no doubt go down, or slump while Pierre has a hit-rate-driven .310 average and stays in the mix.