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Fantasy Football Debate: Matt Ryan v. Jay Cutler

Perhaps the Bears will shake things up by adding another receiver during the draft this weekend, but which quarterback would you rather have as your regular fantasy starter this season -- Ryan or Cutler?

Weapons

Ryan

(RB) - Michael Turner - No player had more carries than Turner in 2008 (376), but the continued development of Ryan, the addition of an elite pass-catching tight end in Tony Gonzalez and another strong season from Jerious Norwood as a situational back should help to scale back that workload a little bit in 2009. Definitely a first-round back this summer, I'd still be surprised if Turner actually produced like a No. 2 or No. 3 overall player, but 1,300 yards and 10-12 TDs are a good bet.

(WR) - Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/Harry Douglas - White is the underrated leader of a quietly productive group, proving that his 2007 was no fluke by setting career highs across the board during Ryan's rookie campaign. Jenkins is a solid NFL No. 2, but isn't reliable enough to be more than a fantasy spot starter, while Douglas should improve during his second year in the system as well.

(TE) - Tony Gonzalez - Given that White's biggest asset to the Falcons is big plays down field, Gonzalez should help Ryan underneath and in the red zone. A second-round pick in 2010 doesn't seem like too steep of a price when you consider that he should be able to make all of the players around him better. Even at 33, it's hard to bet against a guy coming off of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with 90+ catches making his second-year quarterback more productive.

Cutler

(RB) - Matt Forte - A very good pass-catcher and one of the better early-round fantasy selections this season, since the Bears don't appear to have any sort of significant committee situation lined up to take touches away from him. Cutler's running game in Denver last season was shredded by injuries and Forte's versatility and good hands give the new Chicago signalcaller a second good option in the red zone.

(WR) - Devin Hester/Rashied Davis - They need help here in a big way. Hester is going to spend another summer filling up pages on many sleeper lists since the strong-armed Cutler could at least theoretically just swing for the fences with a couple of deep balls to Hester each week. It's hard to imagine that the Bears won't do something to bolster their depth and add a playmaker between now and training camp, but look for a healthy number of receptions from Forte and this man if they don't....

(TE) - Greg Olsen - Olsen seemed to be hitting his stride at the end of last season hauling in three of his five TD catches over the last four games. Cutler had excellent rapport with Tony Scheffler in Denver and Olsen has the tools to be a much more dynamic player. Of the Bears' current skill position players, Olsen stands to benefit the most from the quarterback upgrade, especially since his ability in the receiving corps is in question. Olsen should also benefit from the lack of a good top wideout by seeing plenty of looks in the red zone.

Verdict

Injuries or not, the Broncos still averaged 4.8 YPC last season -- tying for second in the league with Carolina and Kansas City -- and trailing only the Giants (5.0 YPC). Cutler will undoubtedly miss having Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal at his disposal. Another interesting factor to consider is that the Denver defense was horrible in 2008 -- only the Saints gave up more yards of total offense -- and only the Lions and Rams gave up more points.

The Bears' defense was tied for 16th in points allowed (21.9 per game) and barring some unforeseen regression away from the middle of the pack, their presence ensures that Cutler won't have to air it out 616 times again in 2009 (only Drew Brees attempted more passes last season).  It wouldn't be that surprising if Cutler's yardage totals fell 1,000 yards into the 3,500-3,600 range. Even with that, he'd easily post the best season of any Chicago QB since the Y2K bug overdosed on Cold Duck. In the last nine seasons, Rex Grossman is the Bears' only 3,000-yard passer. Things were so bad in 2004, Chad Hutchinsonled the Bears with 903 yards through the air.

Crazy as it may be to some, I'm actually slotting Ryan ahead of Cutler at this time. I'd definitely reconsider if the Bears somehow got their hands on Anquan Boldin (or another elite wideout), but Ryan's got all of the pieces in place for a huge second season with the Falcons. The other dealbreaker for me is their respective Average Draft Positions. From the 50-plus drafts on Mock Draft Central over the last two weeks, Cutler is looking like an early sixth-round pick in a standard 12-team league (8th QB selected) and Ryan is shaping up to be a late eighth-round selection (13th QB taken). We'll have to see how the rest of the offseason adjusts their perceived value, but Ryan is the better option right now.